scholarly journals The spatial and temporal variability of convective instability in the south of Western Siberia according to ERA5 reanalysis data

Author(s):  
К.Н. Пустовалов ◽  
В.П. Горбатенко ◽  
П.М. Нагорский ◽  
О.Е. Нечепуренко

Представлены результаты сравнительного анализа пространственно-временной изменчивости конвективной неустойчивости на юге Западной Сибири по данным индексов неустойчивости K-Index и Total Totals, полученных из реанализа ERA5. Показано, что по значениям обоих индексов максимум конвективной неустойчивости над югом Западной Сибири приходится на Кулундинскую равнину и пойму верхнего течения р. Иртыш. Кроме того, высокие значения индексов наблюдаются над юго-востоком Урала и северо-востоком Васюганской равнины. Северная граница со значениями KIQ1 ≥ 30 ◦C и TTQ1 ≥ 50 ◦C, указывающими на вероятность образования гроз 70%, простирается до 62◦ и 61◦ с.ш. соответственно. За период 1990–2019 гг. в динамике среднегодовых значений KIQ1, в целом по территории, преобладает положительный тренд, а в динамике TTQ1 на большей части территории значимые изменения отсутствуют, однако отмечается цикличность с периодом ∼ 10 лет. A comparative analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of convective instability in the south of Western Siberia according to the K-Index and Total Totals index obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis is presented. Related to both indices, the Kulunda plain and the upper Irtysh River floodplain have the highest level of convective instability in the south of Western Siberia. In addition, high index values are observed over the southeastern Urals and the northeastern Vasyugan plain. The northern boundary extends to 62◦ and 61◦ N, respectively, with KIQ1 ≥ 30 ◦C and TTQ1 ≥ 50 ◦C, indicating a thunderstorm probability greater than 70%. The dynamics of annual average KIQ1 values for the territory as a whole are dominated by a positive trend for the period 1990–2019, and there are no significant changes in TTQ1 dynamics for most of the territory, but there is cyclicality with a period of ∼ 10 years.

2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-233
Author(s):  
María Eugenia Fernández ◽  
Jorge Osvaldo Gentili ◽  
Ana Casado ◽  
Alicia María Campo

The objective of this work is to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) on a regional scale and its relationship with frequent synoptic situations in the south of the Pampeana region (Argentina). It was verified that the latitudinal pattern of distribution of the GHI is modified in the region by cloud cover, which is in turn determined by the seasonal dynamics of action centers and the passage of fronts in summer and winter. The South America Monsoon System (SAMS) defines differential situations of cloudiness and rainfall in the region, which affect GHI. GHI increased successively between the decades 1981–2010, a factor associated with the variability of rainfall that characterizes the region.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 7103-7123
Author(s):  
Susann Tegtmeier ◽  
Elliot Atlas ◽  
Birgit Quack ◽  
Franziska Ziska ◽  
Kirstin Krüger

Abstract. Halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLSs), such as bromoform (CHBr3), can be transported to the stratosphere and contribute to the halogen loading and ozone depletion. Given their highly variable emission rates and their short atmospheric lifetimes, the exact amount as well as the spatio-temporal variability of their contribution to the stratospheric halogen loading are still uncertain. We combine observational data sets with Lagrangian atmospheric modelling in order to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of the CHBr3 injection into the stratosphere for the time period 1979–2013. Regional maxima with mixing ratios of up to 0.4–0.5 ppt at 17 km altitude are diagnosed to be over Central America (1) and over the Maritime Continent–west Pacific (2), both of which are confirmed by high-altitude aircraft campaigns. The CHBr3 maximum over Central America is caused by the co-occurrence of convectively driven short transport timescales and strong regional sources, which in conjunction drive the seasonality of CHBr3 injection. Model results at a daily resolution reveal isolated, exceptionally high CHBr3 values in this region which are confirmed by aircraft measurements during the ACCENT campaign and do not occur in spatially or temporally averaged model fields. CHBr3 injection over the west Pacific is centred south of the Equator due to strong oceanic sources underneath prescribed by the here-applied bottom-up emission inventory. The globally largest CHBr3 mixing ratios at the cold point level of up to 0.6 ppt are diagnosed to occur over the region of India, Bay of Bengal, and Arabian Sea (3); however, no data from aircraft campaigns are available to confirm this finding. Inter-annual variability of stratospheric CHBr3 injection of 10 %–20 % is to a large part driven by the variability of coupled ocean–atmosphere circulation systems. Long-term changes, on the other hand, correlate with the regional sea surface temperature trends resulting in positive trends of stratospheric CHBr3 injection over the west Pacific and Asian monsoon region and negative trends over the east Pacific. For the tropical mean, these opposite regional trends balance each other out, resulting in a relatively weak positive trend of 0.017±0.012 ppt Br per decade for 1979–2013, corresponding to 3 % Br per decade. The overall contribution of CHBr3 together with CH2Br2 to the stratospheric halogen loading accounts for 4.7 ppt Br, in good agreement with existing studies, with 50 % and 50 % being injected in the form of source and product gases, respectively.


2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2010-2014
Author(s):  
C. M. Cecilio ◽  
D. F. M. Gherardi ◽  
R. B. Souza ◽  
M. Correa-Ramirez

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nedjeljka Žagar

<div>Atmospheric spatial and temporal variability are closely related with the former being relatively well observed compared to the latter. The former is also regularly assessed in the validation of numerical weather prediction models while the latter is more difficult to estimate. Likewise, thermodynamical fields and circulation are closely coupled calling for an approach that considers them simultaneously.  </div> <div>In this contribution, spatio-temporal variability spectra of the four major reanalysis datasets are discussed and applied for the validation of a climate model prototype.  A relationship between deficiencies in simulated variability and model biases is derived. The underlying method includes dynamical regime decomposition thereby providing a better understanding of the role of tropical variability in global circulation. </div> <div>Results of numerical simulations are validated by a 20th century reanalysis. A climate model was forced either with the prescribed SST or with a slab ocean model that updates SST in each forecast step.  Scale-dependent validation shows that missing temporal variance in the model relative to verifying reanalysis increases as the spatial scale reduces that appears associated with an increasing lack of spatial variance at smaller scales. Similar to variability, bias is strongly scale dependent; the larger the scale, the greater the bias. Biases present in the SST-forced simulation increase in the simulation using the slab ocean. The comparison of biases computed as a systematic difference between the model and reanalysis and between the SST-forced model and slab-ocean model (a perfect-model scenario) suggests that improving the atmospheric model increases the variance in the model on synoptic and subsynoptic scales but large biases associated with a poor SST remain at planetary scales.</div> <p> </p>


2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Grünewald ◽  
M. Schirmer ◽  
R. Mott ◽  
M. Lehning

Abstract. The spatio-temporal variability of the mountain snow cover determines the avalanche danger, snow water storage, permafrost distribution and the local distribution of fauna and flora. Using a new type of terrestrial laser scanner (TLS), which is particularly suited for measurements of snow covered surfaces, snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE) and melt rates have been monitored in a high alpine catchment during an ablation period. This allowed for the first time to get a high resolution (2.5 m cell size) picture of spatial variability and its temporal development. A very high variability in which maximum snow depths between 0–9 m at the end of the accumulation season was found. This variability decreased during the ablation phase, although the dominant snow deposition features remained intact. The spatial patterns of calculated SWE were found to be similar to snow depth. Average daily melt rate was between 15 mm/d at the beginning of the ablation period and 30 mm/d at the end. The spatial variation of melt rates increased during the ablation rate and could not be explained in a simple manner by geographical or meteorological parameters, which suggests significant lateral energy fluxes contributing to observed melt. It could be qualitatively shown that the effect of the lateral energy transport must increase as the fraction of snow free surfaces increases during the ablation period.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 2415
Author(s):  
Tuuli Soomets ◽  
Kristi Uudeberg ◽  
Kersti Kangro ◽  
Dainis Jakovels ◽  
Agris Brauns ◽  
...  

Phytoplankton primary production (PP) in lakes play an important role in the global carbon cycle. However, monitoring the PP in lakes with traditional complicated and costly in situ sampling methods are impossible due to the large number of lakes worldwide (estimated to be 117 million lakes). In this study, bio-optical modelling and remote sensing data (Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument) was combined to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of PP in four Baltic lakes during 2018. The model used has three input parameters: concentration of chlorophyll-a, the diffuse attenuation coefficient, and incident downwelling irradiance. The largest of our studied lakes, Võrtsjärv (270 km2), had the highest total yearly estimated production (61 Gg C y−1) compared to the smaller lakes Lubans (18 Gg C y−1) and Razna (7 Gg C y−1). However, the most productive was the smallest studied, Lake Burtnieks (40.2 km2); although the total yearly production was 13 Gg C y−1, the daily average areal production was 910 mg C m−2 d−1 in 2018. Even if lake size plays a significant role in the total PP of the lake, the abundance of small and medium-sized lakes would sum up to a significant contribution of carbon fixation. Our method is applicable to larger regions to monitor the spatial and temporal variability of lake PP.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1859
Author(s):  
Mengmeng Yang ◽  
Joaquim I. Goes ◽  
Hongzhen Tian ◽  
Elígio de R. Maúre ◽  
Joji Ishizaka

We investigated the spatio-temporal variability of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and total suspended matter (TSM) associated with spring–neap tidal cycles in the Ariake Sea, Japan. Our study relied on significantly improved, regionally-tuned datasets derived from the ocean color sensor Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua over a 16-year period (2002–2017). The results revealed that spring–neap tidal variations in Chl-a and TSM within this macrotidal embayment (the Ariake Sea) are clearly different regionally and seasonally. Generally, the spring–neap tidal variability of Chl-a in the inner part of the Ariake Sea was controlled by TSM for seasons other than summer, whereas it was controlled by river discharge for summer. On the other hand, the contribution of TSM to the variability of Chl-a was not large for two areas in the middle of Ariake Sea where TSM was not abundant. This study demonstrates that ocean color satellite observations of Chl-a and TSM in the macrotidal embayment offer strong advantages for understanding the variations during the spring–neap tidal cycle.


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