scholarly journals In the Wake of Change: An Urban Design Response to Rising Sea Levels in Wellington City

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Emily Oakley
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Design ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
City Council ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Sea Wall ◽  
The City

<p>This thesis focuses on possible urban design responses to a worst-case scenario for sea level change: a rise of one metre by the year 2100. Wellington City is comparable to many coastal cities around the world; much of the city sits on lowlying reclaimed land. A rise in sea level of one metre could result in extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure. Scientists predict that seas will rise somewhere between 0.18m and 1.2m by the end of the century. New Zealand’s Ministry for the Environment advises local bodies to plan for a rise in sea level of at least 0.8m by the year 2090. Wellington City Council has begun to research the possible effects of sea level rise on the city but has not yet seriously considered design options in response to this. The uncertainties regarding the extent of sea level rise mean its impact on Wellington City could be minimal (0.5 m rise) or extensive (1.5m rise). Dykes, sea walls and levees have been constructed for centuries to protect local populations. These can be detrimental to urban quality, and can impede the connections between cities and their waterfronts. Up until now, their effects on overall urban design have rarely been considered. Urban designs adopted internationally for flood defence were reviewed with regard to Wellington City’s needs. A mapping study of three possible scenarios (0.5m, 1.0m, 1.5m) for sea level change in Wellington City has been made, including assessment with respect to urban design principles. This thesis concludes by offering a realistic response to the one metre scenario. Three sections of the city are developed further to demonstrate how a unified response could be developed throughout the city. The chosen response to the problem of sea level rise in Wellington City seeks to preserve sense of place while introducing new urban design concepts. The chosen design uses a sea wall to protect the existing city against a one-metre rise in sea level, and creates an amphibious zone on its seaward side. The sea wall sits inside the city rather than around it. As well as forming a boundary, it is a public structure offering visual connections between city and sea, and maintaining the essential character of the waterfront. The amphibious zone is designed to withstand flooding during storms and high sea surges. Design in this zone includes new building processes that adapt with sea level changes.</p>

scholarly journals In the Wake of Change: An Urban Design Response to Rising Sea Levels in Wellington City

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Emily Oakley
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Design ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
City Council ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Sea Wall ◽  
The City

<p>This thesis focuses on possible urban design responses to a worst-case scenario for sea level change: a rise of one metre by the year 2100. Wellington City is comparable to many coastal cities around the world; much of the city sits on lowlying reclaimed land. A rise in sea level of one metre could result in extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure. Scientists predict that seas will rise somewhere between 0.18m and 1.2m by the end of the century. New Zealand’s Ministry for the Environment advises local bodies to plan for a rise in sea level of at least 0.8m by the year 2090. Wellington City Council has begun to research the possible effects of sea level rise on the city but has not yet seriously considered design options in response to this. The uncertainties regarding the extent of sea level rise mean its impact on Wellington City could be minimal (0.5 m rise) or extensive (1.5m rise). Dykes, sea walls and levees have been constructed for centuries to protect local populations. These can be detrimental to urban quality, and can impede the connections between cities and their waterfronts. Up until now, their effects on overall urban design have rarely been considered. Urban designs adopted internationally for flood defence were reviewed with regard to Wellington City’s needs. A mapping study of three possible scenarios (0.5m, 1.0m, 1.5m) for sea level change in Wellington City has been made, including assessment with respect to urban design principles. This thesis concludes by offering a realistic response to the one metre scenario. Three sections of the city are developed further to demonstrate how a unified response could be developed throughout the city. The chosen response to the problem of sea level rise in Wellington City seeks to preserve sense of place while introducing new urban design concepts. The chosen design uses a sea wall to protect the existing city against a one-metre rise in sea level, and creates an amphibious zone on its seaward side. The sea wall sits inside the city rather than around it. As well as forming a boundary, it is a public structure offering visual connections between city and sea, and maintaining the essential character of the waterfront. The amphibious zone is designed to withstand flooding during storms and high sea surges. Design in this zone includes new building processes that adapt with sea level changes.</p>

Sea Level Rise in Macau and Adjacent Southern China Coast: Historical Change and Future Projections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Wang ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Wen Zhou ◽  
Wen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Historical Change ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Emissions Scenario

&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160; &amp;#160; Global warming-related SLR (sea level rise) constitutes a substantial threat to Macau, due to its low elevation, small size and ongoing land reclamation. This study was devised to determine the long-term variation of sea level change in Macau, as well as to develop future projections based on tide gauge and satellite data and GCM simulations, aiming to provide knowledge for SLR mitigation and adaptation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160; &amp;#160; Based on local tide gauge records, sea level in Macau is now rising at an accelerated rate: 1.35 mm yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;#8722;1&lt;/sup&gt; over 1925&amp;#8211;2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;#8722;1&lt;/sup&gt; over 1970&amp;#8211;2010, reflecting an apparent acceleration of SLR. Furthermore, the sea level near Macau rose 10% faster than the global mean during the period from 1993 to 2012. In addition, the rate of VLM (vertical land movement) at Macau is estimated at -0.153mm yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;, contributing little to local sea level change.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160; &amp;#160; In the future, as projected by a suite of climate models, the rate of SLR in Macau will be about 20% higher than the global average. This is induced primarily by a greater-than-average rate of oceanic thermal expansion in Macau, together with enhanced southerly anomalies that lead to a piling up of sea water. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8&amp;#8211;12, 22&amp;#8211;51 and 35&amp;#8211;118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100 with respect to the 1986&amp;#8211;2005 baseline climatology, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. If we consider the medium emissions scenario RCP4.5 along with medium climate sensitivity, Macau can expect to experience an SLR of 10, 34 and 65 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100. If the worst case happens (RCP8.5 plus high climate sensitivity), the SLR will be far higher than that in the medium case; namely, 12, 51 and 118 cm by 2020, 2060, and 2100, respectively. The SLR under the lower emissions scenario is expected to be less severe than that under the higher emissions scenarios: by 2100, an SLR of 65&amp;#8211;118 cm in Macau under RCP8.5, almost twice as fast as that under RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and poor knowledge of climate sensitivity. By 2020, the uncertainty range is only 4 cm, yet by 2100 the range will be increased to 83 cm.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Refining Estimates of Polar Ice Volumes during the MIS11 Interglacial Using Sea Level Records from South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8740-8746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florence Chen ◽  
Sarah Friedman ◽  
Charles G. Gertler ◽  
James Looney ◽  
Nizhoni O’Connell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Polar Ice ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Numerical Predictions

Abstract Peak eustatic sea level (ESL), or minimum ice volume, during the protracted marine isotope stage 11 (MIS11) interglacial at ~420 ka remains a matter of contention. A recent study of high-stand markers of MIS11 age from the tectonically stable southern coast of South Africa estimated a peak ESL of 13 m. The present study refines this estimate by taking into account both the uncertainty in the correction for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and the geographic variability of sea level change following polar ice sheet collapse. In regard to the latter, the authors demonstrate, using gravitationally self-consistent numerical predictions of postglacial sea level change, that rapid melting from any of the three major polar ice sheets (West Antarctic, Greenland, or East Antarctic) will lead to a local sea level rise in southern South Africa that is 15%–20% higher than the eustatic sea level rise associated with the ice sheet collapse. Taking this amplification and a range of possible GIA corrections into account and assuming that the tectonic correction applied in the earlier study is correct, the authors revise downward the estimate of peak ESL during MIS11 to 8–11.5 m.

scholarly journals Late Holocene sea-level change around Newfoundland

2007 ◽  
Vol 44 (10) ◽  
pp. 1453-1465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia F Daly ◽  
Daniel F Belknap ◽  
Joseph T Kelley ◽  
Trevor Bell
Keyword(s):  
Salt Marsh ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Laurentide Ice Sheet ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Rising Sea Level ◽  
Holocene Sea Level

Differential sea-level change in formerly glaciated areas is predicted owing to variability in extent and timing of glacial coverage. Newfoundland is situated close to the margin of the former Laurentide ice sheet, and the orientation of the shoreline affords the opportunity to investigate variable rates and magnitudes of sea-level change. Analysis of salt-marsh records at four sites around the island yields late Holocene sea-level trends. These trends indicate differential sea-level change in recent millennia. A north–south geographic trend reflects submergence in the south, very slow sea-level rise in the northeast, and a recent transition from falling to rising sea-level at the base of the Northern Peninsula. This variability is best explained as a continued isostatic response to deglaciation.

scholarly journals Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bert L.A. Vermeersen ◽  
Aimée B.A. Slangen ◽  
Theo Gerkema ◽  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Kim M. Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Level Change

AbstractRising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

Volume–area scaling parameterisation of Norwegian ice caps: A comparison of different approaches

The Holocene ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 164-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tron Laumann ◽  
Atle Nesje
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Best Fit

Over the recent decades, glaciers have in general continued to lose mass, causing surface lowering, volume reduction and frontal retreat, thus contributing to global sea-level rise. When making assessments of present and future sea-level change and management of water resources in glaciated catchments, precise estimates of glacier volume are important. The glacier volume cannot be measured on every single glacier. Therefore, the global glacier volume must be estimated from models or scaling approaches. Volume–area scaling is mostly applied for estimating volumes of glaciers and ice caps on a regional and global scale by using a statistical–theoretical relationship between glacier volume ( V) and area ( A) ( V =  cAγ) (for explanation of the parameters c and γ, see Eq. 1). In this paper, a two-dimensional (2D) glacier model has been applied on four Norwegian ice caps (Hardangerjøkulen, Nordre Folgefonna, Spørteggbreen and Vestre Svartisen) in order to obtain values for the volume–area relationship on ice caps. The curve obtained for valley glaciers gives the best fit to the smallest plateau glaciers when c = 0.027 km3−2 γ and γ = 1.375, and a slightly poorer fit when the glacier increases in size. For ice caps, c = 0.056 km3−2 γ and γ = 1.25 fit reasonably well for the largest, but yield less fit to the smaller.

scholarly journals The land-ice contribution to 21st century dynamic sea-level rise

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Howard ◽  
J. Ridley ◽  
A. K. Pardaens ◽  
R. T. W. L. Hurkmans ◽  
A. J. Payne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Dynamic Sea Level

Abstract. Climate change has the potential to locally influence mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. These lead to departures from the global mean sea level change, due to spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, which are termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study we present regional patterns of sea-level change projected by a global coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model forced by projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland ice sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global sea level rise over the 21st century. Since the ice melt is not constant, the evolution of the dynamic sea level changes is analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes, occurring in the North Atlantic, contributing of order 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed or changing atmospheric CO2.

scholarly journals Quantifying processes contributing to marine hazards to inform coastal climate resilience assessments, demonstrated for the Caribbean Sea

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2609-2626
Author(s):  
Svetlana Jevrejeva ◽  
Lucy Bricheno ◽  
Jennifer Brown ◽  
David Byrne ◽  
Michela De Dominicis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Global Estimate ◽  
The Caribbean

Abstract. Scientific evidence is critical to underpin the decisions associated with shoreline management, to build climate-resilient communities and infrastructure. We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on coastal impacts in the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events and a worst-case scenario, modelling the storm surges and waves, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m, depending on the underwater topography. Coastal wave heights of up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent are simulated with a regional wave model. We deliver probabilistic sea level projections for 2100, with a low-probability–high-impact estimate of possible sea level rise up to 2.2 m, exceeding the 1.8 m global estimate for the same scenario. We introduce a combined vulnerability index, which allows for a quantitative assessment of relative risk across the region, showing that sea level rise is the most important risk factor everywhere but wave impacts are important on windward coasts, increasing to the north, towards the main hurricane track. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively prepare for and protect against climate change.

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