scholarly journals Regulation of prediction markets under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Kelsey Farmer
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Recent History ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Securities Law

<p>The Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (FMC Act) represents the most substantial overhaul of New Zealand’s securities law in recent history. The regulation of derivatives in particular featured high on the agenda as an area in need of reform and, as a result, the FMC Act is much clearer than the Securities Markets Act 1988 with respect to typical derivative agreements. The focus of this paper, however, is on the atypical: the use of derivatives in prediction markets. With a study of New Zealand-based prediction market iPredict, this paper examines whether iPredict will be regulated under the FMC Act and, if so, how it will be regulated. The conclusion reached is that iPredict can operate under the FMC Act only if the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) declares that its contracts are derivatives and grants substantial exemptions from regulatory compliance. This paper then makes recommendations for a more coherent approach to the regulation of prediction markets under the FMC Act.</p>

scholarly journals Regulation of Prediction Markets Under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Kelsey Brooke Farmer
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Recent History ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Securities Law

The Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (FMC Act) represents the most substantial overhaul of New Zealand's securities law in recent history. The regulation of derivatives in particular featured high on the agenda as an area in need of reform and, as a result, the FMC Act is much more clear than the Securities Act 1978 and Securities Markets Act 1988 with respect to typical derivative agreements. The focus of this article, however, is on the atypical: the use of derivatives in prediction markets. This article examines whether New Zealand-based prediction market iPredict will be regulated under the FMC Act and, if so, how it will be regulated. The conclusion reached is that iPredict can operate under the FMC Act only if the Financial Markets Authority declares that its contracts are derivatives and grants substantial exemptions from regulatory compliance. This article then makes recommendations for a more coherent approach to the regulation of prediction markets by analogy with the new prescribed intermediary service licences under the FMC Act. 

scholarly journals Regulation of prediction markets under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Kelsey Farmer
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Recent History ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Securities Law

<p>The Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (FMC Act) represents the most substantial overhaul of New Zealand’s securities law in recent history. The regulation of derivatives in particular featured high on the agenda as an area in need of reform and, as a result, the FMC Act is much clearer than the Securities Markets Act 1988 with respect to typical derivative agreements. The focus of this paper, however, is on the atypical: the use of derivatives in prediction markets. With a study of New Zealand-based prediction market iPredict, this paper examines whether iPredict will be regulated under the FMC Act and, if so, how it will be regulated. The conclusion reached is that iPredict can operate under the FMC Act only if the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) declares that its contracts are derivatives and grants substantial exemptions from regulatory compliance. This paper then makes recommendations for a more coherent approach to the regulation of prediction markets under the FMC Act.</p>

A STATISTICAL MODEL OF CLAIM PRICES IN PREDICTION MARKETS

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 85-93
Author(s):  
Russ Ray
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Inside Information ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Agreement ◽  
High Degree

This paper finds that claim prices in prediction markets, a new genre of financial markets, follow a Poisson distribution. The significance of this finding is that as soon as a claim in a prediction market is created and thereafter flushes out expert and inside information from around the world regarding that particular claim, claim prices immediately begin forming bell-shaped distributions, implying global agreement regarding the probabilities of claims being realized. This is an interesting finding, implying a surprisingly high degree of global homogeneity of inside information in predictions markets, even though such information is scattered in disconnected and secretive pockets around the world. This finding could also imply that cultural diversities do not significantly affect the interpretation of information in prediction markets. 

scholarly journals Book Review: Company and Securities Law in New Zealand

2008 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 533
Author(s):  
David Brown
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Securities Law

This is a book review of John Farrar (ed) Company and Securities Law in New Zealand (Brookers, Wellington, 2008).

scholarly journals Prediction Markets for Crowdsourcing

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Horn ◽  
Marcel Bogers ◽  
Alexander Brem*
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Open Innovation ◽  
Innovation Process ◽  
Business Practice ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Knowledge Sources ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Online Platform ◽  
External Knowledge ◽  
Opening Up

Crowdsourcing is an increasingly important phenomenon that is fundamentally changing how companies create and capture value. There are still important questions with respect to how crowdsourcing works and can be applied in practice, especially in business practice. In this chapter, we focus on prediction markets as a mechanism and tool to tap into a crowd in the early stages of an innovation process. The act of opening up to external knowledge sources is also in line with the growing interest in open innovation. One example of a prediction market, a virtual stock market, is applied to open innovation through an online platform. We show that use of mechanisms of internal crowdsourcing with prediction markets can outperform use of external crowds.

scholarly journals The Financial Implications of the Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (68) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilmir Nusratullin ◽  
Nikolay Mrochkovskiy ◽  
Raul Yarullin ◽  
Natalia Zamyatina ◽  
Oksana Solntseva
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Economic Shock ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Increased Pressure

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was a real shock to the entire global community. It hit both the health systems of the infected countries and the economies. Border closures, quarantines for citizens and disruption of production caused economic shock to many organizations. First, the tourism and transport industry suffered, followed by agriculture and mining, and then all other industries. However, the economic crisis also caused some problems in the financial sector: increased risks of non-compliance with loans, cash outs of bank deposits, increased pressure on the insurance market, panic in commodity and securities markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the financial system of developed countries. As part of this study, a review of scientific research in the field of pandemics and finances was conducted, how the spread of infection affected the economy, banking, financial markets, and government regulation in the financial sector as a whole.

scholarly journals Theoretical and Legal Reflections on Securities Dispositions

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (31) ◽  
pp. 353-361
Author(s):  
Dušan Holub ◽  
Ildikó Némethová
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Securities Regulation ◽  
Legal Regulations ◽  
Legal Principles ◽  
Securities Law ◽  
Legal Opinions

Abstract Decreasing the number of materialised securities for the benefit of electronic securities has led to distinctions between commercial and legal opinions on securities transactions. Contemporary financial markets only trade electronic securities held in securities accounts. Securities law enhances adjustments to economic realities and not to legal principles. Discrepancies between economic realities and securities regulation should be resolved in order to find a balance between successfully functioning transactions of electronic securities and legal schemes which are based on transfers of physically existing assets, which include securities, as a result of the theory of incorporations, in certain legal regulations. This article is a theoretical and legal reflection on selected issues connected with the transfer of securities with reference to discrepancies between economic realities and legal regulations.

Evidencing the Forecasting Performance of Predication Markets: An Empirical Comparative Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-76
Author(s):  
Patrick Buckley
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Problem Space ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Planning Processes ◽  
Uncertain Outcomes ◽  
Aid Decision

Accurately forecasting uncertain outcomes to inform planning processes and aid decision making is a perennial organisational challenge, and the focus of a substantial body of research in management science, information systems and related disciplines. Academic research suggests that prediction markets may be of significant benefit to organisations in meeting this challenge. However most of the empirical studies assessing prediction market performance are laboratory based and suffer from limits to their generalizability. Recent literature has called for research which analyses the performance of prediction markets in ecologically valid settings in order to evidence their effectiveness to potential organisational users. This paper answers these calls by designing a prediction market to forecast an uncertain real world event. The study then compares the forecasting performance of the prediction market with a number of more traditional forecasting approaches regularly used by organisations. The study is contextually situated in a low information heterogeneity problem space, where relevant information is freely available. The results suggest that in this context prediction markets outperform the other forecasting methods studied.

PRIVATE PREDICTION MARKETS AND THE LAW

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Bell
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
The Public ◽  
Legal Risks ◽  
Federal Laws ◽  
The Law ◽  
Considerable Benefit

This paper analyses the legality of private prediction markets under U.S. law, describing both the legal risks they raise and how to manage those risks.  As the label "private" suggests, such markets offer trading not to the public but rather only to members of a particular firm.  The use of private prediction markets has grown in recent years because they can efficiently collect and quantify information that firms find useful in making management decisions.  Along with that considerable benefit, however, comes a worrisome cost:  the risk that running a private prediction market might violate U.S. state or federal laws.  The ends and means of private prediction markets differ materially from those of futures, securities, or gambling markets.  Laws written for those latter three institutions nonetheless threaten to limit or even outlaw private prediction markets.  As the paper details, however, careful legal engineering can protect private prediction markets from violating U.S. laws or suffering crushing regulatory burdens.  The paper concludes with a prediction about the likely form of potential CFTC regulations and a long-term strategy for ensuring the success of private prediction markets under U.S. law.

scholarly journals New Hope for Corporate Governance in China?

2007 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 590-612 ◽  
Author(s):  
James V. Feinerman
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Regulatory Framework ◽  
Company Law ◽  
Financial Disclosure ◽  
Independent Directors ◽  
Minority Shareholders ◽  
Securities Law ◽  
Chinese Law

AbstractChina's recent revisions to its Company Law and Securities Law have brought new attention to issues of corporate governance in Chinese companies and financial markets. Among the chief criticisms of the earlier laws – in both their provisions and application – were the lack of protection for minority shareholders, the paucity of independent directors, the absence of transparency and inadequate financial disclosure. The acknowledged need for greater congruence between Chinese law and practice and that of countries with more developed capital markets led to the proposal of amendments to China's legislation during the first half of this decade. This article highlights several improvements resulting from the revisions as well as remaining weaknesses in the regulatory framework for corporate enterprises in China.

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