Evidencing the Forecasting Performance of Predication Markets: An Empirical Comparative Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-76
Author(s):  
Patrick Buckley
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Problem Space ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Planning Processes ◽  
Uncertain Outcomes ◽  
Aid Decision

Accurately forecasting uncertain outcomes to inform planning processes and aid decision making is a perennial organisational challenge, and the focus of a substantial body of research in management science, information systems and related disciplines. Academic research suggests that prediction markets may be of significant benefit to organisations in meeting this challenge. However most of the empirical studies assessing prediction market performance are laboratory based and suffer from limits to their generalizability. Recent literature has called for research which analyses the performance of prediction markets in ecologically valid settings in order to evidence their effectiveness to potential organisational users. This paper answers these calls by designing a prediction market to forecast an uncertain real world event. The study then compares the forecasting performance of the prediction market with a number of more traditional forecasting approaches regularly used by organisations. The study is contextually situated in a low information heterogeneity problem space, where relevant information is freely available. The results suggest that in this context prediction markets outperform the other forecasting methods studied.

scholarly journals Heritage Module within Legal Translation and Interpreting Studies: Didactic Contribution to University Students’ Sustainable Education

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3966
Author(s):  
Anastasia Atabekova
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
University Students ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Theoretical Consideration ◽  
Graduate Program ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Professional Activities ◽  
Module Design ◽  
Legal Translation

This article explores the hypothesis that the concept of heritage is relevant for a university-based degree course in legal translators and interpreters’ training. The research rests on the legal and academic understanding of cultural heritage. The study explores its specifics regarding the English-taught discipline on Legal Translation and Interpreting Studies within the above-mentioned graduate program. The research integrates qualitative tools and statistical instruments, starts with the theoretical consideration of legislative and academic sources, proceeds to the empirical studies of heritage samples, and considers their relevance for the heritage module design within the specified discipline. The experimental design of such a module and its use for the training of students are also part of the present investigation that further explores students’ perceptions of the heritage module under study, with reference to their future career tracks. The study reveals the specifics and components of the heritage framework for the discipline under study and identifies those areas of professional activities for which students consider the heritage module as most useful and relevant. These issues have not been a subject for academic research so far, which contributes to the research relevance and novelty.

scholarly journals Personality trait differences across types of entrepreneurs: a systematic literature review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florentine U. Salmony ◽  
Dominik K. Kanbach
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Systematic Literature Review ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Rural Farmers ◽  
Start Up ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Research Integration

AbstractThe personality traits that define entrepreneurs have been of significant interest to academic research for several decades. However, previous studies have used vastly different definitions of the term “entrepreneur”, meaning their subjects have ranged from rural farmers to tech-industry start-up founders. Consequently, most research has investigated disparate sub-types of entrepreneurs, which may not allow for inferences to be made regarding the general entrepreneurial population. Despite this, studies have frequently extrapolated results from narrow sub-types to entrepreneurs in general. This variation in entrepreneur samples reduces the comparability of empirical studies and calls into question the reviews that pool results without systematic differentiation between sub-types. The present study offers a novel account by differentiating between the definitions of “entrepreneur” used in studies on entrepreneurs’ personality traits. We conduct a systematic literature review across 95 studies from 1985 to 2020. We uncover three main themes across the previous studies. First, previous research applied a wide range of definitions of the term “entrepreneur”. Second, we identify several inconsistent findings across studies, which may at least partially be due to the use of heterogeneous entrepreneur samples. Third, the few studies that distinguished between various types of entrepreneurs revealed differences between them. Our systematic differentiation between entrepreneur sub-types and our research integration offer a novel perspective that has, to date, been widely neglected in academic research. Future research should use clearly defined entrepreneurial samples and conduct more systematic investigations into the differences between entrepreneur sub-types.

The Demand for, and Avoidance of, Information

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Golman ◽  
George Loewenstein ◽  
Andras Molnar ◽  
Silvia Saccardo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Behavioral Theory ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
New Information ◽  
Attention Demand ◽  
Aid Decision

Management scientists recognize that decision making depends on the information people have but lack a unified behavioral theory of the demand for (and avoidance of) information. Drawing on an existing theoretical framework in which utility depends on beliefs and the attention paid to them, we develop and test a theory of the demand for information encompassing instrumental considerations, curiosity, and desire to direct attention to beliefs one feels good about. We decompose an individual’s demand for information into the desire to refine beliefs, holding attention constant, and the desire to focus attention on anticipated beliefs, holding these beliefs constant. Because the utility of resolving uncertainty (i.e., refining beliefs) depends on the attention paid to it and more important or salient questions capture more attention, demand for information depends on the importance and salience of the question(s) it addresses. In addition, because getting new information focuses attention on one’s beliefs and people want to savor good news and ignore bad news, the desire to obtain or avoid information depends on the valence (i.e., goodness or badness) of anticipated beliefs. Five experiments (n = 2,361) test and find support for these hypotheses, looking at neutrally valenced as well as ego-relevant information. People are indeed more inclined to acquire information (a) when it feels more important, even if it cannot aid decision making (Experiments 1A and 2A); (b) when a question is more salient, manipulated through time lag (Experiments 1B and 2B); and (c) when anticipated beliefs have higher valence (Experiment 2C). This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis.

scholarly journals Prediction Markets for Crowdsourcing

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Horn ◽  
Marcel Bogers ◽  
Alexander Brem*
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Open Innovation ◽  
Innovation Process ◽  
Business Practice ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Knowledge Sources ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Online Platform ◽  
External Knowledge ◽  
Opening Up

Crowdsourcing is an increasingly important phenomenon that is fundamentally changing how companies create and capture value. There are still important questions with respect to how crowdsourcing works and can be applied in practice, especially in business practice. In this chapter, we focus on prediction markets as a mechanism and tool to tap into a crowd in the early stages of an innovation process. The act of opening up to external knowledge sources is also in line with the growing interest in open innovation. One example of a prediction market, a virtual stock market, is applied to open innovation through an online platform. We show that use of mechanisms of internal crowdsourcing with prediction markets can outperform use of external crowds.

Engagement platforms in the sharing economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 761-777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph F. Breidbach ◽  
Roderick J. Brodie
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Sharing Economy ◽  
Service Research ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Information Communication ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Service Ecosystem

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify and delineate research directions that guide future empirical studies exploring how engagement platforms facilitate value co-creation and actor engagement in the context of the sharing economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors adopt a midrange theorizing approach with service-dominant logic as the integrating meta-theoretical perspective to develop a theoretical framework about service platforms, engagement platforms, and actor engagement in information communication technology (ICT) mediated environments. The authors then contextualize the framework for the sharing economy. Findings The authors introduce 20 unique research questions to guide future studies related to service ecosystems, engagement platforms, and actor engagement practices in the context of the sharing economy. Research limitations/implications The sharing economy is an emerging phenomenon that is driven by the development and proliferation of engagement platforms. The engagement platform concept therefore provides a novel perspective for exploration of how ICT can be utilized to facilitate value co-creation and engagement amongst interdependent economic actors in a service ecosystem. Practical implications The purpose of this paper is to guide future academic research, rather than managerial practice. Future research based on the framework can help guide decision-makers to implement and use engagement platforms more effectively. Originality/value This paper offers new insight into the important intersection of ICT and service research, and guides future studies exploring the role of engagement platforms in the context of the sharing economy.

Exploring the Spheres of Crowdfunding

2016 ◽  
pp. 190-209
Author(s):  
Bernard Owens Imarhiagbe
Keyword(s):  
Service Providers ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Policy Statement ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Uk

This chapter reviews research and policy literatures on the spheres of crowdfunding. It identifies reward-based, donation-based, equity-based and credit-based crowdfunding with a view to collate relevant information to support crowdfunding knowledgebase and further research. As crowdfunding is a new concept in research literature, it is increasing in popularity in social media, business and research communities. Academic research in crowdfunding is limited and the subject is still evolving as a way of access to finance for seed capital, entrepreneurial projects and other early stage projects. Advanced countries in Europe and North America have recognised the relevance of crowdfunding in varying proportion from one country to another for project fundraising. However, the World Bank confirmed that developing countries are at different stages of recognition of crowdfunding in their policy framework. Although the UK financial regulator, Financial Conduct Authority, has produced a policy statement for crowdfunding and approved some service providers such as crowdfunding platforms, it is still interacting with stakeholders and providing guidance to potential entrepreneurs on the operational models. Crowdfunding is a way of raising small amounts of money from different contributors over the internet for different types of projects. There are huge management implications in the spheres of crowdfunding.

Exploring the Spheres of Crowdfunding

2020 ◽  
pp. 1547-1566
Author(s):  
Bernard Owens Imarhiagbe
Keyword(s):  
Service Providers ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Policy Statement ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Uk

This chapter reviews research and policy literatures on the spheres of crowdfunding. It identifies reward-based, donation-based, equity-based and credit-based crowdfunding with a view to collate relevant information to support crowdfunding knowledgebase and further research. As crowdfunding is a new concept in research literature, it is increasing in popularity in social media, business and research communities. Academic research in crowdfunding is limited and the subject is still evolving as a way of access to finance for seed capital, entrepreneurial projects and other early stage projects. Advanced countries in Europe and North America have recognised the relevance of crowdfunding in varying proportion from one country to another for project fundraising. However, the World Bank confirmed that developing countries are at different stages of recognition of crowdfunding in their policy framework. Although the UK financial regulator, Financial Conduct Authority, has produced a policy statement for crowdfunding and approved some service providers such as crowdfunding platforms, it is still interacting with stakeholders and providing guidance to potential entrepreneurs on the operational models. Crowdfunding is a way of raising small amounts of money from different contributors over the internet for different types of projects. There are huge management implications in the spheres of crowdfunding.

A STATISTICAL MODEL OF CLAIM PRICES IN PREDICTION MARKETS

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 85-93
Author(s):  
Russ Ray
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Inside Information ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Agreement ◽  
High Degree

This paper finds that claim prices in prediction markets, a new genre of financial markets, follow a Poisson distribution. The significance of this finding is that as soon as a claim in a prediction market is created and thereafter flushes out expert and inside information from around the world regarding that particular claim, claim prices immediately begin forming bell-shaped distributions, implying global agreement regarding the probabilities of claims being realized. This is an interesting finding, implying a surprisingly high degree of global homogeneity of inside information in predictions markets, even though such information is scattered in disconnected and secretive pockets around the world. This finding could also imply that cultural diversities do not significantly affect the interpretation of information in prediction markets. 

PRIVATE PREDICTION MARKETS AND THE LAW

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Bell
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
The Public ◽  
Legal Risks ◽  
Federal Laws ◽  
The Law ◽  
Considerable Benefit

This paper analyses the legality of private prediction markets under U.S. law, describing both the legal risks they raise and how to manage those risks.  As the label "private" suggests, such markets offer trading not to the public but rather only to members of a particular firm.  The use of private prediction markets has grown in recent years because they can efficiently collect and quantify information that firms find useful in making management decisions.  Along with that considerable benefit, however, comes a worrisome cost:  the risk that running a private prediction market might violate U.S. state or federal laws.  The ends and means of private prediction markets differ materially from those of futures, securities, or gambling markets.  Laws written for those latter three institutions nonetheless threaten to limit or even outlaw private prediction markets.  As the paper details, however, careful legal engineering can protect private prediction markets from violating U.S. laws or suffering crushing regulatory burdens.  The paper concludes with a prediction about the likely form of potential CFTC regulations and a long-term strategy for ensuring the success of private prediction markets under U.S. law.

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