A STATISTICAL MODEL OF CLAIM PRICES IN PREDICTION MARKETS

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 85-93
Author(s):  
Russ Ray
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Inside Information ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Agreement ◽  
High Degree

This paper finds that claim prices in prediction markets, a new genre of financial markets, follow a Poisson distribution. The significance of this finding is that as soon as a claim in a prediction market is created and thereafter flushes out expert and inside information from around the world regarding that particular claim, claim prices immediately begin forming bell-shaped distributions, implying global agreement regarding the probabilities of claims being realized. This is an interesting finding, implying a surprisingly high degree of global homogeneity of inside information in predictions markets, even though such information is scattered in disconnected and secretive pockets around the world. This finding could also imply that cultural diversities do not significantly affect the interpretation of information in prediction markets. 

scholarly journals Regulation of Prediction Markets Under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Kelsey Brooke Farmer
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Recent History ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Securities Law

The Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (FMC Act) represents the most substantial overhaul of New Zealand's securities law in recent history. The regulation of derivatives in particular featured high on the agenda as an area in need of reform and, as a result, the FMC Act is much more clear than the Securities Act 1978 and Securities Markets Act 1988 with respect to typical derivative agreements. The focus of this article, however, is on the atypical: the use of derivatives in prediction markets. This article examines whether New Zealand-based prediction market iPredict will be regulated under the FMC Act and, if so, how it will be regulated. The conclusion reached is that iPredict can operate under the FMC Act only if the Financial Markets Authority declares that its contracts are derivatives and grants substantial exemptions from regulatory compliance. This article then makes recommendations for a more coherent approach to the regulation of prediction markets by analogy with the new prescribed intermediary service licences under the FMC Act. 

A Statistical Model for Appraisal of Discrimination Performance in Closed Set Tests

1988 ◽  
Vol 27 (03) ◽  
pp. 133-134
Author(s):  
L. Köppen ◽  
R. Quester
Keyword(s):  
Cochlear Implant ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Discrimination Performance ◽  
Performance Tests ◽  
Confidence Limits ◽  
Matching Model ◽  
Closed Set ◽  
The World

SummaryIn the evaluation of discrimination performance in closed set tests, it is important to know what proportion of correct results may possibly be explained by chance. The present paper describes a statistical model for the calculation of confidence limits which appears suitable for standardization of the different methods of appraisal used throughout the world. It utilizes the matching model and Poisson distribution and, as an example, it is applied to discrimination performance tests of cochlear implant wearers.

scholarly journals On the Observational Implications of Knightian Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin A. Hassett ◽  
Weifeng Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Knightian Uncertainty ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
The World ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Empirical Regularities

AbstractWe develop a model of a prediction market with ambiguity and derive testable implications of the presence of Knightian uncertainty. Our model can also explain two commonly observed empirical regularities in betting markets: the tendency for longshots to win less often than odds would indicate and the tendency for favorites to win more often. Using historical data from Intrade, we further present empirical evidence that is consistent with the predicted presence of Knightian uncertainty. Our evidence also suggests that, even with information acquisition, the Knightian uncertainty of the world may be not “learnable” to the traders in prediction markets.

scholarly journals Regulation of prediction markets under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Kelsey Farmer
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Recent History ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Securities Law

<p>The Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (FMC Act) represents the most substantial overhaul of New Zealand’s securities law in recent history. The regulation of derivatives in particular featured high on the agenda as an area in need of reform and, as a result, the FMC Act is much clearer than the Securities Markets Act 1988 with respect to typical derivative agreements. The focus of this paper, however, is on the atypical: the use of derivatives in prediction markets. With a study of New Zealand-based prediction market iPredict, this paper examines whether iPredict will be regulated under the FMC Act and, if so, how it will be regulated. The conclusion reached is that iPredict can operate under the FMC Act only if the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) declares that its contracts are derivatives and grants substantial exemptions from regulatory compliance. This paper then makes recommendations for a more coherent approach to the regulation of prediction markets under the FMC Act.</p>

scholarly journals Regulation of prediction markets under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Kelsey Farmer
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Recent History ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Securities Law

<p>The Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (FMC Act) represents the most substantial overhaul of New Zealand’s securities law in recent history. The regulation of derivatives in particular featured high on the agenda as an area in need of reform and, as a result, the FMC Act is much clearer than the Securities Markets Act 1988 with respect to typical derivative agreements. The focus of this paper, however, is on the atypical: the use of derivatives in prediction markets. With a study of New Zealand-based prediction market iPredict, this paper examines whether iPredict will be regulated under the FMC Act and, if so, how it will be regulated. The conclusion reached is that iPredict can operate under the FMC Act only if the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) declares that its contracts are derivatives and grants substantial exemptions from regulatory compliance. This paper then makes recommendations for a more coherent approach to the regulation of prediction markets under the FMC Act.</p>

The world and Russia: Inflation is minimal, economic growth is slowing, risks are rising

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Main Factors

Russian economy has reached the low level of inflation, but economic growth has not accelerated. Moreover, according to official forecasts, in the following years it will still be low. The article concludes that domestic demand, which is one of the main factors of growth, is significantly constrained by monetary, budgetary and fiscal spheres. The situation in the Russian economy is still hampered by the decline of the world economic growth. The prospects of financial markets are highly uncertain. This increases the possibility of crisis in the world. Leading countries widely use non-traditional measures to support their economies in the similar environment. In the world economy as well as in Russia a principally new combination of factors has emerged, which create specific features of economic growth. It requires special set of measures to stimulate such growth. The article proves that Russian regulators have large unused potential to stimulate growth. It includes monetization, long-money creation, budget and tax stimuli. It is important that the instruments, which will be used, should be based on domestic mechanisms. This will strengthen financial basis of the economy and may encourage economic growth. Some specific suggestions as to their use are made.

9/11 and Armageddon: the Christian Right and George W. Bush

2003 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-50
Author(s):  
Göran Gunner
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Christian Right ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Religious Leader ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The World ◽  
Mega Church ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Jerry Falwell ◽  
High Degree

Authors from the Christian Right in the USA situate the September 11 attack on New York and Washington within God's intentions to bring America into the divine schedule for the end of the world. This is true of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, and other leading figures in the ‘Christian Coalition’. This article analyses how Christian fundamentalists assess the roles of the USA, the State of Israel, Islam, Iraq, the European Union and Russia within what they perceive to be the divine plan for the future of the world, especially against the background of ‘9/11’. It argues that the ideas of the Christian Right and of President George W. Bush coalesce to a high degree. Whereas before 9/11 many American mega-church preachers had aspirations to direct political life, after the events of that day the President assumes some of the roles of a mega-religious leader.

Introduction

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Detlef Pollack ◽  
Gergely Rosta
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
West Germany ◽  
World Today ◽  
The World ◽  
Degree Of Stability ◽  
Important Exception ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Religious Landscape

In recantation of his earlier approach, Peter L. Berger now claims: ‘The world today, with some exceptions […], is as furiously religious as it ever was, and in some places more so than ever.’ The most important exception that Berger refers to is Western Europe. The introduction to Part II provides an overview of the religious landscape in Western Europe. The data show that the current religious situation in the countries of Western Europe is in fact subject to considerable variation. It would therefore be erroneous to describe Western Europe as secularized. At the same time, the data reveal that there have been clear secularization tendencies over the last few decades. To grasp the diversity of religious tendencies, Part II deals with three cases: West Germany with moderate downward tendencies, Italy with a considerably high degree of stability, and the Netherlands displaying disproportionately strong secularizing tendencies.

Financialization

2018 ◽  
pp. 276-290
Author(s):  
Ravi Roy ◽  
Thomas D. Willett
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Globalization ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
National Economies ◽  
Global Financial System

The size and scope of financial sectors throughout the world have grown exponentially in tandem with the rise of globalization and increased capital mobility. The terms “economic globalization” and “financialization” are often discussed as inextricably related phenomena. Although the rapid increase in the number and variety of financial services and products during the past four decades has helped spur economic growth and create wealth on an unprecedented scale, the devastating fallout from the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, and the economic turbulence that followed, demonstrates how poorly managed financial sectors can simultaneously cause enormous pain. This chapter argues that if the opportunities created by economic globalization and financialization are to be maximized, while at the same tempering volatile financial markets, then the global financial system (and the national economies connected with it) must be fundamentally restructured. A number of ways that should be taken under consideration are discussed.

scholarly journals Cross-section instability in financial markets: impatience, extrapolation, and switching

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Dieci ◽  
Xue-Zhong He
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Equilibrium Market ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Fundamental Price

AbstractThis paper presents a stylized model of interaction among boundedly rational heterogeneous agents in a multi-asset financial market to examine how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching behaviors can affect cross-section market stability. Besides extrapolation and performance based switching between fundamental and extrapolative trading documented in single asset market, we show that a high degree of ‘impatience’ of agents who are ready to switch to more profitable trading strategy in the short run provides a further cross-section destabilizing mechanism. Though the ‘fundamental’ steady-state values, which reflect the standard present-value of the dividends, represent an unbiased equilibrium market outcome in the long run (to a certain extent), the price deviation from the fundamental price in one asset can spill-over to other assets, resulting in cross-section instability. Based on a (Neimark–Sacker) bifurcation analysis, we provide explicit conditions on how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching can destabilize the market and result in a variety of short and long-run patterns for the cross-section asset price dynamics.

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