scholarly journals APPLICATION OF BACKPROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORKS IN PREDICTING RAINFALL DATA IN AMBON CITY

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yopi Andry Lesnussa ◽  
C. G. Mustamu ◽  
F. Kondo Lembang ◽  
M. W. Talakua
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Air Velocity ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Accuracy Level ◽  
Backpropagation Method ◽  
Iteration Number ◽  
Artificial Neural

The Artificial Neural Networks is a process of information system on certain traits which as representatives of the human neural networks. The Artificial Neural Networks can be applied in every area of human life, one of them is environment especially about prediction of climate or weather. In this research, the artificial neural network is used to predict the rainfall with Backpropagation method and using MATLAB software. The other meteorology parameters used to predict the rainfall are air temperature, air velocity and air pressure. The result showed less accuracy level is 80% by using alpha 0,7, iteration number (epoch) 10000 and MSE value = 0,0218. Therefore, the result of rainfall prediction system is accurate.

Rainfall Prediction by Artificial Neural Networks Trained using Different Climate Variables

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateus Alexandre da Silva ◽  
Marina Neves Merlo ◽  
Michael Silveira Thebaldi ◽  
Danton Diego Ferreira ◽  
Felipe Schwerz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Back Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Belo Horizonte

Abstract Predicting rainfall can prevent and mitigate damages caused by its deficit or excess, besides providing necessary tools for adequate planning for the use of water. This research aimed to predict the monthly rainfall, one month in advance, in four municipalities in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, using artificial neural networks (ANN) trained with different climate variables, and to indicate the suitability of such variables as inputs to these models. The models were developed through the MATLAB® software version R2011a, using the NNTOOL toolbox. The ANN’s were trained by the multilayer perceptron architecture and the Feedforward and Back propagation algorithm, using two combinations of input data were used, with 2 and 6 variables, and one combination of input data with 3 of the 6 variables most correlated to observed rainfall from 1970 to 1999, to predict the rainfall from 2000 to 2009. The most correlated variables to the rainfall of the following month are the sequential number corresponding to the month, total rainfall and average compensated temperature, and the best performance was obtained with these variables. Furthermore, it was concluded that the performance of the models was satisfactory; however, they presented limitations for predicting months with high rainfall.

A New Likelihood Ratio Method for Training Artificial Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yijie Peng ◽  
Li Xiao ◽  
Bernd Heidergott ◽  
L. Jeff Hong ◽  
Henry Lam
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Likelihood Ratio ◽  
Stochastic Gradient ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Estimation Technique ◽  
Gradient Estimation ◽  
Backpropagation Method ◽  
Infinitesimal Perturbation ◽  
Artificial Neural

We investigate a new approach to compute the gradients of artificial neural networks (ANNs), based on the so-called push-out likelihood ratio method. Unlike the widely used backpropagation (BP) method that requires continuity of the loss function and the activation function, our approach bypasses this requirement by injecting artificial noises into the signals passed along the neurons. We show how this approach has a similar computational complexity as BP, and moreover is more advantageous in terms of removing the backward recursion and eliciting transparent formulas. We also formalize the connection between BP, a pivotal technique for training ANNs, and infinitesimal perturbation analysis, a classic path-wise derivative estimation approach, so that both our new proposed methods and BP can be better understood in the context of stochastic gradient estimation. Our approach allows efficient training for ANNs with more flexibility on the loss and activation functions, and shows empirical improvements on the robustness of ANNs under adversarial attacks and corruptions of natural noises. Summary of Contribution: Stochastic gradient estimation has been studied actively in simulation for decades and becomes more important in the era of machine learning and artificial intelligence. The stochastic gradient descent is a standard technique for training the artificial neural networks (ANNs), a pivotal problem in deep learning. The most popular stochastic gradient estimation technique is the backpropagation method. We find that the backpropagation method lies in the family of infinitesimal perturbation analysis, a path-wise gradient estimation technique in simulation. Moreover, we develop a new likelihood ratio-based method, another popular family of gradient estimation technique in simulation, for training more general ANNs, and demonstrate that the new training method can improve the robustness of the ANN.

scholarly journals Implementasi Metode Backpropogation dengan Inisialisasi Bobot Nguyen Widrow untuk Peramalan Harga Saham

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Eliv Kurniawan ◽  
Hari Wibawanto ◽  
Djoko Adi Widodo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Backpropagation Method ◽  
Weight Initialization ◽  
Artificial Neural

<p>Jaringan saraf tiruan merupakan suatu ilmu yang terus berkembang pesat hingga saat ini. Jaringan saraf tiruan merupakan suatu ilmu komputasi yang didasarkan dan terinspirasi dari cara kerja sistem saraf manusia. Sama halnya dengan sistem saraf manusia, jaringan saraf tiruan bekerja melalui proses pembelajaran terhadap data-data yang sudah ada untuk memformulakan keluaran dari data-data baru. Jaringan saraf tiruan dengan metode backpropagation mampu melakukan peramalan untuk data nonlinear seperti bentuk data harian harga saham. Salah satu algoritma inisialisasi bobot yang dapat meningkatkan waktu eksekusi adalah nguyen-widrow. Pada penelitian ini akan dilakukan implementasi metode backpropagation dengan inisialisasi bobot nguyen widrow untuk meramalkan harga saham. Proses implementasi melalui 3 tahapan, yaitu preprosesing data, pelatihan jaringan, dan pengujian jaringan. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pelatihan jaringan saraf tiruan dengan jumlah dataset yang banyak membutuhkan perhitungan yang kompleks, sehingga jaringan saraf tiruan dengan arsitektur jaringan yang sederhana kurang efektif dan dapat terjebak pada titik lokal minimum. Hasil peramalan untuk harga close saham BBCA.JK memiliki nilai MAPE 0,85% dan untuk harga close saham AALI.JK memiliki nilai MAPE sebesar 1,84%.</p><p><em><strong>Abstract</strong></em></p><p><em>Artificial neural network is a hot topic and invite a lot of admiration in the last decade. Artificial Neural Network is one of the artificial representations of the humans brain who always try to simulate the learning process of the humans brain. Artificial neural network with backpropagation method is able to forecast nonlinear data such as daily data form stock price. One of the weight initialization algorithms that can be increase the execution time is nguyen-widrow. In this research will be implemented backpropagation method with nguyen widrow weight initialization to forecast stock prices. The process of implementation through 3 stages, that is preprosesing data, training, and testing or simulate. The results of this research indicate that the training of artificial neural networks with many datasets required a complex calculations, so the artificial neural network with simple architectures is less effective and can get stuck at minimum local points. The results forecasting for the close price of BBCA.JK have a MAPE value 0.85% and for the close price of AALI.JK have 1.84% of MAPE value</em></p>

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