scholarly journals STOCHASTIC MODELLING BASED MONTHLY RAINFALL PREDICTION USING SEASONAL ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

2017 ◽  
Vol 07 (02) ◽  
pp. 1421-1426
Author(s):  
Karthik S.M. ◽  
◽  
Arumugam P.
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

Rainfall Prediction by Artificial Neural Networks Trained using Different Climate Variables

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateus Alexandre da Silva ◽  
Marina Neves Merlo ◽  
Michael Silveira Thebaldi ◽  
Danton Diego Ferreira ◽  
Felipe Schwerz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Back Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Belo Horizonte

Abstract Predicting rainfall can prevent and mitigate damages caused by its deficit or excess, besides providing necessary tools for adequate planning for the use of water. This research aimed to predict the monthly rainfall, one month in advance, in four municipalities in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, using artificial neural networks (ANN) trained with different climate variables, and to indicate the suitability of such variables as inputs to these models. The models were developed through the MATLAB® software version R2011a, using the NNTOOL toolbox. The ANN’s were trained by the multilayer perceptron architecture and the Feedforward and Back propagation algorithm, using two combinations of input data were used, with 2 and 6 variables, and one combination of input data with 3 of the 6 variables most correlated to observed rainfall from 1970 to 1999, to predict the rainfall from 2000 to 2009. The most correlated variables to the rainfall of the following month are the sequential number corresponding to the month, total rainfall and average compensated temperature, and the best performance was obtained with these variables. Furthermore, it was concluded that the performance of the models was satisfactory; however, they presented limitations for predicting months with high rainfall.

scholarly journals APPLICATION OF BACKPROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORKS IN PREDICTING RAINFALL DATA IN AMBON CITY

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yopi Andry Lesnussa ◽  
C. G. Mustamu ◽  
F. Kondo Lembang ◽  
M. W. Talakua
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Air Velocity ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Accuracy Level ◽  
Backpropagation Method ◽  
Iteration Number ◽  
Artificial Neural

The Artificial Neural Networks is a process of information system on certain traits which as representatives of the human neural networks. The Artificial Neural Networks can be applied in every area of human life, one of them is environment especially about prediction of climate or weather. In this research, the artificial neural network is used to predict the rainfall with Backpropagation method and using MATLAB software. The other meteorology parameters used to predict the rainfall are air temperature, air velocity and air pressure. The result showed less accuracy level is 80% by using alpha 0,7, iteration number (epoch) 10000 and MSE value = 0,0218. Therefore, the result of rainfall prediction system is accurate.

scholarly journals Monthly Rainfall Anomalies Forecasting for Southwestern Colombia Using Artificial Neural Networks Approaches

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teresita Canchala ◽  
Wilfredo Alfonso-Morales ◽  
Yesid Carvajal-Escobar ◽  
Wilmar L. Cerón ◽  
Eduardo Caicedo-Bravo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Artificial Neural

Improving the accuracy of rainfall forecasting is relevant for adequate water resources planning and management. This research project evaluated the performance of the combination of three Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) approaches in the forecasting of the monthly rainfall anomalies for Southwestern Colombia. For this purpose, we applied the Non-linear Principal Component Analysis (NLPCA) approach to get the main modes, a Neural Network Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous variables (NNARMAX) as a model, and an Inverse NLPCA approach for reconstructing the monthly rainfall anomalies forecasting in the Andean Region (AR) and the Pacific Region (PR) of Southwestern Colombia, respectively. For the model, we used monthly rainfall lagged values of the eight large-scale climate indices linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon as exogenous variables. They were cross-correlated with the main modes of the rainfall variability of AR and PR obtained using NLPCA. Subsequently, both NNARMAX models were trained from 1983 to 2014 and tested for two years (2015–2016). Finally, the reconstructed outputs from the NNARMAX models were used as inputs for the Inverse NLPCA approach. The performance of the ANN approaches was measured using three different performance metrics: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Pearson’s correlation (r). The results showed suitable forecasting performance for AR and PR, and the combination of these ANN approaches demonstrated the possibility of rainfall forecasting in these sub-regions five months in advance and provided useful information for the decision-makers in Southwestern Colombia.

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