Intraseasonal tropical variability in an intermediate complexity atmospheric model

2010 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 237-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Yu. Gushchina ◽  
B. Dewitte ◽  
S. A. Korkmazova
2020 ◽  
Vol 146 (729) ◽  
pp. 1590-1607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leo Saffin ◽  
Sam Hatfield ◽  
Peter Düben ◽  
Tim Palmer

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daria Gushchina ◽  
Boris Dewitte

AbstractThe intraseasonal tropical variability (ITV) patterns in the tropical troposphere are documented using double space-time Fourier analysis. Madden and Julian oscillations (MJO) as well as equatorial coupled waves (Kelvin and Rossby) are investigated based on the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data for the 1977–2006 period and the outputs of an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled model named LODCA-OTCM. A strong seasonal dependence of the ITV/ENSO relationship is evidenced. The leading relationship for equatorial Rossby waves (with the correlation of the same order than for the MJO) is documented; namely, it is shown that intensification of Rossby waves in the central Pacific during boreal summer precedes by half a year the peak of El Niño. The fact that MJO activity in spring-summer is associated to the strength of subsequent El Niño is confirmed. It is shown that LODCA-QTCM is capable of simulating the convectively coupled equatorial waves in outgoing long wave radiation and zonal wind at 850 hPa fields with skill comparable to other Coupled General Circulation Models. The ITV/ENSO relationship is modulated at low frequency. In particular the periods of low ENSO amplitude are associated with weaker MJO activity and a cancellation of MJO at the ENSO development phase. In opposition, during the decaying phase, MJO signal is strong. The periods of strong ENSO activity are associated with a marked coupling between MJO, Kelvin and equatorially Rossby waves and ENSO; the precursor signal of MJO (Rossby waves) in the western (central) Pacific is obvious. The results provide material for the observed change in ENSO characteristics in recent years and question whether the characteristics of the ITV/ENSO relationship may be sensitive to the observed warming in the central tropical Pacific.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ethan Gutmann ◽  
Roy Rasmussen ◽  
Jeffrey Arnold

<p>When is good enough, good enough? The spatio-temporal variability of precipitation makes measurements extremely challenging, particularly in the mountains.  Simultaneously, the improvements in physical realism of atmospheric models makes them increasingly valuable for fields such as hydrology, particularly in the mountains.  However, the computational cost of such models renders them impractical for many applications, in or out of the mountains.  Here we describe an intermediate complexity atmospheric model (ICAR) capable of capturing around 90% of the variability in orographic precipitation for 1% of the computational cost of a state of the science non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulation.  ICAR uses an analytical solution for flow perturbations created by topography and simulates the core processes responsible for orographic precipitation (e.g. orographic lifting, advection, cloud microphysical processes). We show that key aspects of orographic precipitation spatial patterns are well simulated in ICAR, including some that gridded observation based products are missing. We then show some early results when using ICAR to simulate regional climate changes forced by global models at higher spatial resolutions than it is currently practical to run traditional regional climate models. These simulations quantify plausible shifts in precipitation resulting in the transition from snow to rain, as well as elevation dependent warming caused by the snow albedo feedback.  Further, the computational efficiency of ICAR permits us to run these simulations with many different physics configurations to better explore the sensitivity of these changes to assumptions in the microphysics and land surface model components. </p>


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2373-2392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana Matveeva ◽  
Daria Gushchina ◽  
Boris Dewitte

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is tightly linked to the intraseasonal tropical variability (ITV) that contributes to energise the deterministic ocean dynamics during the development of El Niño. Here, the relationship between ITV and ENSO is assessed based on models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) taking into account the so-called diversity of ENSO, that is, the existence of two types of events (central Pacific versus eastern Pacific El Niño). As a first step, the models' skill in simulating ENSO diversity is assessed. The characteristics of the ITV are then documented revealing a large dispersion within an ensemble of 16 models. A total of 11 models exhibit some skill in simulating the key aspects of the ITV for ENSO: the total variance along the Equator, the seasonal cycle and the characteristics of the propagation along the Equator of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (ER) waves. Five models that account realistically for both the two types of El Niño events and ITV characteristics are used for the further analysis of seasonal ITV ∕ ENSO relationship. The results indicate a large dispersion among the models and an overall limited skill in accounting for the observed seasonal ITV ∕ ENSO relationship. Implications of our results are discussed in light of recent studies on the forcing mechanism of ENSO diversity.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana Matveeva ◽  
Daria Gushchina

Abstract. This study evaluates the simulation of relationship between intraseasonal tropical variability (ITV) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 23 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). As a first step, the models' skill in simulating ENSO diversity is assessed, which indicates that 16 models among 23 are able to simulate realistically the statistics of the relative size of two types of El Niño. The characteristics of the ITV are then documented revealing that only five models (CMCC-CM, CCSM4, BNU-ESM, INMCM4 and MIROC5) simulate realistically the parameters crucial for proper reproducing of ITV contribution to the El Niño, in particular the total variability, seasonal cycle and propagation along the equator of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves (ER). At last step the ITV/ENSO relationship in the models are analyzed and compared to observation. It is shown that the key aspects of this interaction such as phase lag between ITV peak activity and El Niño peak and longitude localization of maximum correlation between ITV and ENSO is realistically simulated by CMCC-CM and MIROC5 for MJO and CMCC-CM and INMCM4 for equatorial Rossby waves. These models are capable to reproduce the distinct MJO and ER behavior associated to the two El Niño flavors. Aforementioned models may be used for the investigation of the sensitivity of the ITV/ENSO seasonal dependence to global warming.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dylan Reynolds ◽  
Bert Kruyt ◽  
Ethan Gutmann ◽  
Tobias Jonas ◽  
Michael Lehning ◽  
...  

<p>            Snow deposition patterns in complex terrain are heavily dependent on the underlying topography. This topography affects precipitating clouds at the kilometer-scale and causes changes to the wind field at the sub-kilometer scale, resulting in altered advection of falling hydrometeors. Snow particles are particularly sensitive to changes in the near-surface flow field due to their low density. Atmospheric models which run at the kilometer scale cannot resolve the actual heterogeneity of the underlying terrain, resulting in precipitation maps which do not capture terrain-affected precipitation patterns. Thus, snow-atmosphere interactions such as preferential deposition are often not resolved in precipitation data used as input to snow models. To bridge this spatial gap and resolve snow-atmosphere interactions at the sub-kilometer scale, we couple an intermediate complexity atmospheric model (ICAR) to the COSMO NWP model. Applying this model to sub-kilometer terrain (horizontal resolution of 50 and 250 m) required changes to ICAR’s computational grid, atmospheric dynamics, and boundary layer flow. As a result, the near-surface flow now accounts for surface roughness and topographically induced speed up. This has been achieved by using terrain descriptors calculated once at initialization which consider a point’s exposure or sheltering relative to surrounding terrain. In particular, the use of a 3-dimensional Sx parameter allows us to simulate areas of stagnation and recirculation on the lee of terrain features. Our approach maintains the accurate large-scale precipitation patterns from COSMO but resolves the dynamics induced by terrain at the sub-kilometer scale without adding additional computational burden. We find that solid precipitation patterns at the ridge scale, such as preferential deposition of snow, are better resolved in the high-resolution version of ICAR than the current ICAR or COSMO models. This updated version of ICAR presents a new tool to dynamically downscale NWP output for snow models and enables future studies of snow-atmosphere interactions at domain scales of 100’s of kilometers.</p>


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