Avaliação do Balanço de água na Bacia do Rio Madeira Simulado Pelo Modelo Regional Climático Eta e o Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias MGB

Resumo Simulações climáticas para o clima presente (1960-2005) utilizando o Modelo Climático Regional Eta e o Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias (MGB), forçado com o Brazilian Earth System Model Ocean-Atmosphere (BESM-AO 2.5) foram realizadas. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o desempenho do Modelo Regional Eta e o Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias (MGB) na representação dos componentes do balanço de água (precipitação, evapotranspiração, convergência de umidade, vazão, cota e área de inundação) sobre a bacia do rio Madeira. A característica de sumidouro de umidade (P > E) foi simulada pelo modelo regional. Entretanto, o modelo subestimou a precipitação (33%), a evapotranspiração (12%) e a convergência de umidade (6%). O MGB-IPH conseguiu representar o ciclo anual das vazões, níveis do rio (cota) e área de inundação. Também conseguiu reproduzir a translação e amplitude das ondas de cheia, e o atraso de 3 meses entre os máximos da área de inundação e a precipitação sobre a bacia do Madeira. O MGB-IPH mostrou-se uma ferramenta útil para estudos de variabilidade climática, mudanças no clima e no uso da terra, e também para sistemas operacionais de previsão hidrológica na bacia Amazônica.

Tuning ocean biogeochemistry in the Earth system — insights from the HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model

<div>Ocean biogeochemistry as part of the Earth system impacts the uptake of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and storage of carbon in the ocean. In the ICON-O (Icosahedral non-hydrostatic general circulation model) ocean model, ocean biogeochemistry is represented by the HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model (HAMOCC; Ilyina et al. 2013, Mauritsen et al. 2019, Maerz et al. 2020). Here, we present the results of an ongoing effort to tune HAMOCC (i.e. adapt parameters within the uncertainty range) to accommodate the ocean circulation simulated by ICON-O.</div><div>The tuning of biogeochemical models, including HAMOCC, has previously been an iterative, and a rather random process combining expert knowledge and a suite of parameter testings. A documented, systematic procedure, describing how to tune these models is lacking. Therefore, while tuning HAMOCC in ICON-O, we aim at filling this gap by structuring the process and documenting the steps taken to tune a biogeochemistry model in a global general ocean circulation model.</div><div>The ocean circulation has a large impact on the distribution of biogeochemical tracers, as biases in the circulation will, for example, impact the upwelling of nutrients or the CO<sub>2</sub> exchange with the atmosphere. We investigate the impact of physical parameterization such as the Gent-McWilliam eddy parameterization and the vertical mixing scheme on the choice of HAMOCC tuning parameters. We then compare the spatial distribution of major state variables such as nutrients and alkalinity to observational data ( WOA; Garcia et al 2013, GLODAP; Key et al 2004) and evaluate the key tendencies such as CO<sub>2</sub> surface fluxes and attenuation of particulate organic matter fluxes. Furthermore, we discuss the tuning steps, choices of the tuning parameters and their impact on the simulated biogeochemistry. The envisioned outcome of this work is a tuned ocean biogeochemistry component for the here used ICON-O model and a more generalized tuning procedure that can be applied to other models or HAMOCC in different model configurations (coupled runs, different resolution).</div><div> </div><p>Garcia, H. E., et al. 2014: World Ocean Atlas 2013, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 76, Volume4: Dissolved Inorganic Nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, silicate), 25pp.</p><p>lyina, T., et al. 2013: Global ocean biogeochemistry model HAMOCC: Model architecture and performance as component of the MPI-Earth system model in different CMIP5 experimental realizations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 5, .</p><p>Key, R., et al. 2004: A global ocean carbon climatology: Results from Global Data Analysis Project, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 18, 4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002247.</p><p>Maerz et al. 2020: Microstructure and composition of marine aggregates as co-determinants for vertical particulate organic carbon transfer in the global ocean, Biogeosciences, 17, 7, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020.</p><p>Mauritsen, T., et al. 2019: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO<sub>2</sub>, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400.</p><p> </p>

Avaliação dos Impactos das Mudanças na Cobertura da Terra e Cenário de Emissões (RCP 8.5) no Balanço de água na Bacia do Rio Madeira

Resumo Nesse estudo avaliou-se os impactos do aumento dos GEE's (cenário RCP 8.5) e dos desflorestamentos no ciclo da água na bacia do rio Madeira, utilizando o Modelo Regional Eta e o Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias (MGB), forçado com o Brazilian Earth System Model Ocean-Atmosphere versão 2.5 (BESM-OA 2.5). No cenário RCP 8.5, o modelo apresentou sensibilidade sobre toda a bacia do Madeira, com aumento da ordem de 4.0 °C na temperatura. O aumento foi intensificado com os cenários de desflorestamentos de 2050 (4.8 °C) e 2100 (6.2 °C). Nos cenários de desflorestamento predominou-se o Mecanismo de Retroalimentação Negativo, pois embora haja reduções na precipitação e evapotranspiração, a convergência de umidade aumentou em todos os cenários. Observou-se aumento das descargas na maioria das estações para todos os cenários futuros RCP 8.5 e desflorestamento. O aumento da precipitação na estação seca explicou em parte o aumento das vazões e na área de inundação sobre a bacia do Madeira. O aumento na precipitação à montante da bacia e a mudança nos parâmetros do solo, associada às alterações no uso da terra, contribuíram para o aumento da vazão e área de inundação sobre a bacia do Madeira. As alterações nas descargas e na área de inundação podem ter efeitos negativos, com prejuízos e danos ao meio ambiente, nos recursos hídricos, nos principais setores da economia, afetando de forma direta as comunidades que vivem às margens dos rios, principalmente as populações vulneráveis da bacia do Madeira.

Microbial feedbacks optimize ocean iron availability

Iron is the limiting factor for biological production over a large fraction of the surface ocean because free iron is rapidly scavenged or precipitated under aerobic conditions. Standing stocks of dissolved iron are maintained by association with organic molecules (ligands) produced by biological processes. We hypothesize a positive feedback between iron cycling, microbial activity, and ligand abundance: External iron input fuels microbial production, creating organic ligands that support more iron in seawater, leading to further macronutrient consumption until other microbial requirements such as macronutrients or light become limiting, and additional iron no longer increases productivity. This feedback emerges in numerical simulations of the coupled marine cycles of macronutrients and iron that resolve the dynamic microbial production and loss of iron-chelating ligands. The model solutions resemble modern nutrient distributions only over a finite range of prescribed ligand source/sink ratios where the model ocean is driven to global-scale colimitation by micronutrients and macronutrients and global production is maximized. We hypothesize that a global-scale selection for microbial ligand cycling may have occurred to maintain “just enough” iron in the ocean.

Emotion, Personality and Cultural Aspects in Crowds: towards a Geometrical Mind

In this work we proposed a computational model to extract pedestrian characteristics from video sequences. The proposed model considers a series of characteristics of the pedestrians and the crowd, such as number and size of groups, distances, speeds, among others, and performs the mapping of these characteristics in personalities, emotions and cultural aspects, considering the Cultural Dimensions of Hofstede (HCD), the Big-Five Personality Model (OCEAN) and the OCC Emotional Model. The main hypothesis is that there is a relationship between so-called intrinsic human variables (such as emotion) and the way people behave in space and time. As one of the main contributions, four large dimensions of geometric characteristics (Big4GD) were proposed: I - Physical, II - Personal and Emotional, III - Social and IV - Cultural, which seek to describe the behavior of pedestrians and groups in the crowd. The GeoMind tool was developed for the purpose of detecting the four geometric dimensions from video sequences. In addition, several analyzes were carried out with the purpose of validating the proposed model, from comparing results with the literature, including the comparison of spontaneous multitudes from several countries and controlled experiments involving Fundamental Diagrams.

A model of mercury cycling and isotopic fractionation in the ocean

Mercury speciation and isotopic fractionation processes have been incorporated into the HAMOCC offline ocean tracer advection code. The model is fast enough to allow a wide exploration of the sensitivity of the Hg cycle in the oceans, and of human exposure to Hg via monomethyl-Hg incorporation into fish. Vertical particle transport of Hg appears to play a discernable role in setting present-day Hg distributions, which we surmise by the fact that in simulations without particle transport, the high present-day Hg deposition rate leads to an Hg maximum at the sea surface, rather than a subsurface maximum as observed. Hg particle transport has only a relatively small impact on anthropogenic Hg uptake, but it sequesters Hg deeper in the water column, so that excess Hg is retained in the model ocean for longer after anthropogenic Hg deposition is stopped. The concentration of monomethyl Hg is sensitive to its production rate, with model experiments suggesting that human impacts on ocean oxygen concentrations could have as significant an impact on oceanic MMHg concentration as the anthropogenic Hg emission itself. Eight different isotopic fractionation mechanisms are simulated, independently and combined together, to predict their expression in the spatial distributions of isotopic signatures of Hg species in the ocean.

The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Climate through Its Influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and large-scale climate is assessed using simulations with three different climate models. Perturbation experiments are conducted in which a pattern of anomalous heat flux corresponding to the NAO is added to the model ocean. Differences between the perturbation experiments and a control illustrate how the model ocean and climate system respond to the NAO. A positive phase of the NAO strengthens the AMOC by extracting heat from the subpolar gyre, thereby increasing deep-water formation, horizontal density gradients, and the AMOC. The flux forcings have the spatial structure of the observed NAO, but the amplitude of the forcing varies in time with distinct periods varying from 2 to 100 yr. The response of the AMOC to NAO variations is small at short time scales but increases up to the dominant time scale of internal AMOC variability (20–30 yr for the models used). The amplitude of the AMOC response, as well as associated oceanic heat transport, is approximately constant as the time scale of the forcing is increased further. In contrast, the response of other properties, such as hemispheric temperature or Arctic sea ice, continues to increase as the time scale of the forcing becomes progressively longer. The larger response is associated with the time integral of the anomalous oceanic heat transport at longer time scales, combined with an increased impact of radiative feedback processes. It is shown that NAO fluctuations, similar in amplitude to those observed over the last century, can modulate hemispheric temperature by several tenths of a degree.