A note about density staircases in the Gulf of Naples : 20 years of persistent weak salt-fingering layers in a coastal area

This is a short communication about the inter-annual recurring presence at the coastal site in the Gulf of Naples of density staircases visible below the mixed surface layer of the water-column, from the end of summer to the beginning of winter, each year during nearly two decades of survey (2001 to 2020). We repetitively observe sequences from 1 to 4 small vertical staircases structures (~ 3 m thick) in the density profiles (~ Δ0.2 kg.m-3), located between 10 m to 50 m deep below the seasonal mixed layer depth. We interpret these vertical structures as the result of double diffusive processes that could host salt-fingering regime (SF) due to warm salty water parcels overlying on relatively fresher and colder layers. This common feature of the Mediterranean basin (i.e., the thermohaline staircases of the Tyrrhenian sea) may sign here for the lateral intrusions of nearshore water masses. These stably stratified layers are characterized by density ratio Rρ 5.0 to 10.0, slightly higher than the critical range (1.0 - 3.0) generally expected for fully developed salt-fingers. SF mixing, such as parameterized (Zhang et al., 1998), appears to inhibit weakly the effective eddy diffusivity with negative averaged value (~ - 1e-8 m2.s-1). A quasi 5-year cycle is visible in the inter-annual variability of the eddy diffusivity associated to SF, suggesting a decadal modulation of the parameters regulating the SF regime. Even contributing weakly to the turbulent mixing of the area, we hypothesis that SF could influence the seasonal stratification by intensifying the density of deep layers. Downward transfer of salt could have an impact on the nutrient supply for the biological communities, that remains to be determined.

Decadal Modulation of Trans-basin Variability on Extended Boreal Summer Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Tropical North Pacific and Atlantic Basins

This study analyzes decadal modulation of trans-basin variability (TBV) on extended boreal summer (May-October) tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the western North Pacific (WNP), central-eastern North Pacific (CENP) and North Atlantic (NATL) basins. There are distinct decadal regimes (P1:1979-1997, P2:1998-2008, and P3:2009-2019) with changes in the interannual relationship between TBV and TCF over these three basins. During P1 and P3, there is a significant inter-annual TBV-TCF relationship over the CENP and NATL, but these relationships become insignificant during P2. Changes in the interannual TBV-TCF relationship over the WNP are opposite to those over the CENP and NATL basins, with significant relationship during P2 but insignificant relationship during P1 and P3. Changes in all three basins coincide with decadal changes in large-scale parameters associated with TBV. Consistent basin-wide changes in lower-tropospheric vorticity (vertical wind shear) associated with TBV appear to be largely responsible for changes in total TCF over the NATL (CENP) during P1 and P3. In contrast, a dipole pattern in lower-tropospheric vorticity and vertical wind shear anomalies associated with TBV over the NATL and CENP basins occurs during P2, leading to an insignificant interannual TBV-TCF relationship over the NATL and CENP basins. Over the WNP, a basin-wide consistent distribution of lower-tropospheric vorticity associated with TBV is consistent with changes in total TCF during P2, while a dipole correlation pattern between TBV-associated factors and TCF during P1 and P3 leads to a weak correlation between TBV and WNP TCF. These three distinct observed decadal regimes may be associated with interactions between ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on decadal timescales.

Decadal Modulation of the ENSO-Indian Ocean Basin Warming relationship during the decaying summer by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Many previous studies have shown that an Indian Ocean basin warming (IOBW) occurs usually during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying spring to summer seasons through modifying the equatorial zonal circulation. Decadal modulation associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is further investigated here to understand the nonstationary ENSO-IOBW relationship during ENSO decaying summer (July-August-September, JAS). During the positive IPO phase, significant warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean in El Niño decaying summers and vice versa for La Niña events, while these patterns are not well detected in the negative IPO phase. Different decaying speeds of ENSO associated with the IPO phase, largely controlled by both zonal advective and thermocline feedbacks, are suggested to be mainly responsible for these different ENSO-IOBW relationships. In contrast to ENSO events in the negative IPO phase, the ones in the positive IPO phase display a slower decaying speed and delay their transitions both from a warm to a cold state and a cold to a warm state. The slower decay of El Niño and La Niña thereby helps to sustain the teleconnection forcing over the equatorial Indian Ocean and corresponding SST anomalies there can persist into summer. This IPO modulation of the ENSO-IOBW relationship carries important implications for the seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean SST anomalies and associated summer climate anomalies.

How low-frequency Equatorial Kelvin Wave activity and local coastal winds modulate the south-eastern interannual Atlantic variability?

<p>Several studies suggest that the mean atmospheric and oceanic features in south-eastern Atlantic have experienced changes over the last few decades with, in particular, a shift in the mean position of the Saint Helena Hight Anticyclone and an increase in the mean ocean stratification. Modification of the wind forcing and the mean state at the equator and along the south-western coast of Africa will most likely impact the characteristics of the eastward propagating interannual Equatorial Kelvin Waves (EKW) and subsequent Coastal Trapped Waves (CTW) in the south-eastern Atlantic. These changes will also affect the interannual variability in the Benguela Upwelling System, especially since the remote equatorial ocean dynamics is instrumental in the development of extreme warm and cold Benguela Niño/Niña events. The objective of this study is to document the low-frequency change in the characteristics (amplitude, duration and timing) of the interannual Benguela Niño/Niña events. Using model solutions and sensitivity experiments, we investigate the mechanisms that control the low-frequency modulation of the coastal interannual variability off the coasts of Angola/Namibia. Our results reveal that the decadal modulation of the interannual variability off the Angolan coast is controlled by change in the EKW activity. In the Southern Benguela, the modulation of the interannual is dominated by the influence of the local alongshore winds. However, periods during which the equatorial forcing is intensified, EKW propagate and imprint the oceanic variability off the coast of Namibia.</p><p> </p>

A Modal Rendition of ENSO Diversity

The El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ‘diversity’ has been considered as a major factor limiting its predictability, a critical need for disaster mitigation associated with the trademark climatic swings of the ENSO. Improving climate models for ENSO forecasts relies on deeper understanding of the ENSO diversity but currently at a nascent stage. Here, we show that the ENSO diversity thought previously as ‘complex,’ arises largely as varied contributions from three leading modes of the ENSO to a given event. The ENSO ‘slow manifold’ can be fully described by three leading predictable modes, a quasi-quadrennial mode (QQD), a quasi-biennial (QB) mode and a decadal modulation of the quasi-biennial (DQB). The modal description of ENSO provides a framework for understanding the predictability of and global teleconnections with the ENSO. We further demonstrate it to be a useful framework for understanding biases of climate models in simulating and predicting the ENSO. Therefore, skillful prediction of all shades of ENSO depends critically on the coupled models’ ability to simulate the three modes with fidelity, providing basis for optimism for future of ENSO forecasts.

Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities

The study of Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) and Predictability is the interdisciplinary endeavor to characterize, understand, attribute, simulate, and predict the slow, multiyear variations of climate at global (e.g., the recent slowdown of global mean temperature rise in the early 2000s) and regional (e.g., decadal modulation of hurricane activity in the Atlantic, ongoing drought in California or in the Sahel in the 1970s–80s, etc.) scales. This study remains very challenging despite decades of research, extensive progress in climate system modeling, and improvements in the availability and coverage of a wide variety of observations. Considerable obstacles in applying this knowledge to actual predictions remain. This short article is a succint review paper about DCV and predictability. Based on listed issues and priorities, it also proposes a unifying theme referred to as “drivers of teleconnectivity” as a backbone to address and structure the core DCV research challenge. This framework goes beyond a preoccupation with changes in the global mean temperature and directly addresses the regional impacts of external (natural and anthropogenic) climate forcing and internal climate interactions; it thus explicitly deals with the societal needs for region-specific climate information. Such a framework also enables the integration of efforts in a large international research community toward advancing the observation, characterization, understanding, and prediction of DCV. Recommendations to make progress are provided as part of the contribution of the CLIVAR “DCVP Research Focus” group.

Daily to Decadal Modulation of Jet Variability

The variance of a jet’s position in latitude is found to be related to its average speed: when a jet becomes stronger, its variability in latitude decreases. This relationship is shown to hold for observed midlatitude jets around the world and also across a hierarchy of numerical models. North Atlantic jet variability is shown to be modulated on decadal time scales, with decades of a strong, steady jet being interspersed with decades of a weak, variable jet. These modulations are also related to variations in the basinwide occurrence of high-impact blocking events. A picture emerges of complex multidecadal jet variability in which recent decades do not appear unusual. An underlying barotropic mechanism is proposed to explain this behavior, related to the change in refractive properties of a jet as it strengthens, and the subsequent effect on the distribution of Rossby wave breaking.