Estimating the accuracy of the very heavy snowfall forecast in the Urals by the WRF model

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. A. Kalinin ◽  
A. L. Vetrov ◽  
E. V. Pishchal’nikova ◽  
E. M. Sviyazov ◽  
A. N. Shikhov
Keyword(s):  
2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (10) ◽  
pp. 4104-4125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara A. Ganetis ◽  
Brian A. Colle

Abstract An intense snowband developed across Long Island, New York, to the north and west of the surface cyclone center on 8–9 February 2013. The snowband evolved through three distinct phases during its 12-h lifetime. During phase 1 the band developed in an area of low-to-midlevel frontogenesis and pivoted over central Long Island and southern Connecticut, where it remained for approximately 10 h. The environment surrounding the snowband cooled to <0°C; however, the band was collocated with a 900–700-hPa layer that remained above 0°C for ~5 h. During phase 2 the band exhibited heavy snowfall rates exceeding 7.5–10 cm h−1 with large and aggregated snow, wet-growth hail-like particles, and a radar reflectivity of ~55 dBZ. About 1 h later during phase 3, the snowband reflectivity decreased to near 30 dBZ and was characterized by less dense snow in a colder environment while still maintaining heavy snowfall rates (6.5–6.7 cm h−1). The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to analyze the band and temperature evolution. Model trajectories terminating within the warmer snowband environment underwent rapid ascent on the east side of the band during which condensation and deposition enhanced the warming before undergoing rapid descent within the band. Analysis of the thermodynamic equation within the band environment revealed that this subsidence warming and upstream condensational heating for trajectories entering the band partially offset the diabatic cooling term, which supported a warmer layer and mixed precipitation during phase 2. Finally, model sensitivity tests showed that melting helped cool low levels and change the microphysical character to all snow during phase 3.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Artur Gevorgyan ◽  
Luis Ackermann ◽  
Yi Huang ◽  
Steven Siems ◽  
Michael Manton

<p>Heavy snowfall associated with the passage of a cold front was observed over the Australian Snowy Mountains (ASM) from 05 to 07 Aug, 2018, producing more than 60 mm of snow at some mountain gauges. The snowfall was mainly observed after the passage of the cold front (in postfrontal period) when north-westerly and westerly cross-barrier winds were observed in the lower and mid troposphere. According to the observations of Cabramurra parsivel located at windward slopes of northern part of the ASM snow intensities exceeded 20 mm h<sup>-1</sup> during short time episodes. Furthermore, Himawari-8 observations show convective clouds over the ASM with isolated cold cloud top temperatures varying from -45 to -40 <sup>o</sup>C. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 was used to further investigate this event. The WRF model was run at 1 km spatial resolution using Thompson, Morrison, NSSL and WDM7 microphysical schemes. Overall, Thompson scheme (our CONTROL run) successfully simulated the precipitation and cloud pattern over the ASM, but showing underestimation of upwind and near top precipitation amount. Morrison and NSSL schemes produce more snow over highly elevated parts of the ASM leading to overestimation of observed snow at top and leeward gauges. The WDM7 simulates unrealistically high amount of precipitation over entire ASM due to strong glaciation processes produced by this scheme. The evaluation of simulated water vapor and cloud water paths against radiometer observations at Cabramurra location show that all sensitivity runs consistently underestimate water vapor path (WVP) despite strong relationship in the simulated and observed WVP time-variations throughout the event. The underestimation of supercooled liquid water (SLW) path is strongest in the WDM7 scheme, while the overestimation of SLW content is greatest in the Thompson scheme. </p>


LITOSFERA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-230
Author(s):  
V. N. Smirnov ◽  
K. S. Ivanov ◽  
T. V. Bayanova

Research subject. The article presents the results of dating two dolerite dikes differing in geochemical features from a section along the Iset river in the area of Smolinskoe settlement (the Eastern zone of the Middle Urals). Materials and methods. The dating was performed by an U-Pb ID-TIMS technique for single zircon grains using an artificial 205Pb/235U tracer in the laboratory of geochronology and isotope geochemistry of the Geological Institute of the Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The lead isotopic composition and uranium and lead concentrations were measured using a Finnigan-MAT (RPQ) seven-channel mass spectrometer in dynamic mode using a secondary electron multiplier and RPQ quadrupole in ion counting mode. Results. The dikes were dated 330 ± 3 Ma and 240 ± 2 Ma. Conclusions. The research results indicate different ages of dolerite dikes developed within the Eastern zone of the Middle Urals. The oldest of the two established age levels corresponds to the Early Carboniferous era. This fact, along with the proximity of the dolerites to the petrochemical features of the basaltoids of the Early Carboniferous Beklenischevsky volcanic complex, allows these bodies to be considered as hypabyssal comagmates of these volcanics. The youngest obtained age level – Triassic – indicates that the introduction of some dolerite dikes was associated with the final phases of the trapp formation developed rarely within the eastern outskirts of the Urals and widely further east in the foundation (pre-Jurassic basement) of the West-Siberian Plate.


2018 ◽  
Vol 147 (6) ◽  
pp. 113-132
Author(s):  
Rakin V.I. ◽  
◽  
Pomazansky B.S. ◽  
Kovalchuk O.E. ◽  
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