scholarly journals Janus Face of Inflation Targeting_Walter_PrePrint

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timo Walter
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Recent Trend ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Prototype Development ◽  
The Us ◽  
Fundamental Uncertainty ◽  
Overall Effectiveness

In the 1980s, central banks around the world stumbled upon a new method for conducting theirmonetary policy: instead of the heavy-handed, „hydraulic“ manipulation of monetary aggregates,they learned to „govern the future“ by managing the expectations of market actors directly.New and better indicators and forecasts would provide the basis for a new communicativecoordination of markets expectations, permitting a more fine-grained and effective implementationof monetary policy, particular in controlling inflation.Focusing on the US Federal Reserve’s prototype development of inflation-targeting, this paper putsthis storyline to the test. Against the recent trend in sociology to conceive of expectations andfuturity as modes of coordination that thrive under conditions of (fundamental) uncertainty that defyrational calculation, I argue that futurity and the formation expectations inextricably depend onprior processes of formalization.Examining the transition to modern ‘inflation targeting’ monetary policy, I show how theeffectiveness of coordination by expectation is achieved by extensive processes of proceduralizationand standardization. While increasing the technical efficiency of fine-tuning expectations, thesegains are only possible because of the procedural narrowing of the scope of communicativeinteraction, which may significantly affect the overall effectiveness of this mode of coordination.I conclude with a call to more closely examine how formal and informal modes of coordination aremutually interdependent – and how the nature of their entanglements affects their effectiveness.

INFLATION TARGETING: IT'S NOT BROKE, IT DOESN'T NEED FIXING, BUT CAN IT SURVIVE?

2010 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 59-80
Author(s):  
PIERRE L. SIKLOS
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Nominal Anchor

Until the end of 2005 there were few outward signs that the inflation targeting (IT) monetary policy strategy was deemed fragile or that the likelihood of abandoning it was high. In light of the severe economic downturn and the global financial crisis that has afflicted most economies around the world since at least 2008, it is worth reconsidering the question of the fragility of the inflation targeting regime. This paper reprises the approach followed in Siklos (2008) but adds important new twists. For example, the present study asks whether the continued survival of IT is due to the fact that some of the central banks in question did take account of changes in financial stress. The answer is no. Indeed, many central banks are seen as enablers of rapid asset price increases. The lesson, however, is not that inflation targeting needs to be repaired. Instead, refinements should be considered to the existing inflation targeting strategy which has evolved considerably since it was first introduced in New Zealand 20 years ago. Most notably, there should be continued emphasis on inflation as the primary nominal anchor of monetary policy, especially in emerging market economies (EME), even if additional duties are assigned to central banks in response to recent events.

scholarly journals Regular Econometric Model of Taylor for Albania

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Ergys Misha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Financial Assets

The Taylor’s Rule Central Banks is applying widely today from Central Banks for design the monetary policy and for determination of interest rates. The purpose of this paper is to assess monetary policy rule in Albania, in view of an inflation targeting regime. In the first version of the Model, the Taylor’s Rule assumes that base interest rate of the monetary policy varies depending on the change of (1) the inflation rate and (2) economic growth (Output Gap).Through this paper it is proposed changing the objective of the Bank of Albania by adding a new objective, that of "financial stability", along with the “price stability”. This means that it is necessary to reassess the Taylor’s Rule by modifying it with incorporation of indicators of financial stability. In the case of Albania, we consider that there is no regular market of financial assets in the absence of the Stock Exchange. For this reason, we will rely on the credit developmet - as a way to measure the financial cycle in the economy. In this case, the base rate of monetary policy will be changed throught: (1) Targeting Inflation Rate, (2) Nominal Targeting of Economic Growth, and (3) Targeting the Gap of the Ratio Credit/GDP (mitigating the boom cycle, if the gap is positive, and the contractiocycle if the gap is negative).The research data show that, it is necessary that the Bank of Albania should also include in its objective maintaining the financial stability. In this way, the contribution expected from the inclusion of credit gap indicators in Taylor’s Rule, will be higher and sustainable in time.

Monetary Policy and Oil Prices

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1850232
Author(s):  
Mehdi S. Monadjemi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Because of volatility, commodity prices are excluded from the CPI when inflation targeting is exercised. Rising commodity prices contribute to inflation but central banks show no reaction since the CPI does not register rise in prices. Frankel (2006) argues that monetary policy should consider the price of important export commodities such as oil, in oil exporting countries. He maintains that by doing so, central banks are able to benefit from the fluctuations of the exchange rate in the presence of a negative international trade shocks. Central banks cannot benefit from the fluctuation of the exchange rate if inflation targeting is the strategy for conducting monetary policy.

The czech experience with inflation targeting in transition

2000 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kateřina Šmídková ◽  
Miroslav Hrnčíř
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
The Other ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Countries In Transition ◽  
The One

This paper argues that inflation targeting is a strategy that can be under certain conditions adopted by central banks in countries in transition even though their typical goal is to disinflate instead of stabilising low inflation. On the one hand, according to the Czech experience, inflation targeting offers several benefits, such as increasing control over expectations and short-term flexibility of monetary strategy, that are attractive for economy in transition. On the other hand, constraints imposed by period of transition as well as by openness of economy are present no matter which monetary strategy is chosen by the central bank. Implied costs should not be attributed to a particular monetary strategy. Inflation targeting has made various factors constraining monetary policy more visible and, as a result, requirements on the quality of decisions as well as on communication strategy have increased.

scholarly journals Central banks’ voting contest

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wojciech Charemza
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Activity Index ◽  
Selection Criterion ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Decision Function ◽  
The Us ◽  
Dynamic Simulation Model ◽  
Voting Decisions ◽  
The Uk

This chapter compares how effective different voting algorithms are for the decisions taken by monetary policy councils. A voting activity index is proposed and computed as the ratio of the number of all possible decisions to the total number of different combinations of decisions available to a given composition of an MPC. The voting systems considered are these used by the US Federal Reserve Board and the central banks of the UK, Australia, Canada, Sweden and Poland. In the dynamic simulation model, which emulates voting decisions, the heterogeneous agents act upon individual forecast signals and optimise a Taylor-like decision function. The selection criterion is based on the simulated probability of staying within the bounds that define the inflationary target. The general conclusion is that the voting algorithm used by the Bank of Sweden is the best given the criteria applied, especially when inflation is initially outside the target bounds. It is observed that a decrease in inflation forecast uncertainty, which is inversely proportional to the correlation between the forecast signals delivered to members of the monetary policy board, makes the voting less effective.

Remembering Inflation

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brigitte Granville
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Nations

Today's global economy, with most developed nations experiencing very low inflation, seems a world apart from the “Great Inflation” that spanned the late 1960s to early 1980s. Yet, this book makes the case that monetary economists and policymakers need to keep the lessons learned during that period very much in mind, lest we return to them by making the same mistakes we made in the past. The book details the advances in macroeconomic thinking that gave rise to the “Great Moderation”—a period of stable inflation and economic growth, which lasted from the mid-1980s through the most recent financial crisis. The book makes the case that the central banks' management of monetary policy—hinging on expectations and credibility—brought about this period of stability, and traces the roots of this success back to the eighteenth-century foundations of modern monetary thought. Tackling fundamental questions such as the causes of inflation and its relation to unemployment and growth, the natural rate of inflation hypothesis, the fiscal theory of the price level, and the proper goals of central banks, the book aims above all to demonstrate the dangers of forgetting the role of credibility in establishing sound monetary policy. With the lessons of the past firmly in mind, the book presents stimulating ideas and proposals about inflation-targeting principles, which provide tools for present-day monetary authorities dealing with the forces of globalization, mercantilism, and reserve accumulation.

Monetary Policy

2020 ◽  
pp. 347-416
Author(s):  
Christopher Tsoukis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Formal Analysis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Taylor Rules ◽  
Current Thinking ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Institutional Architecture

This chapter discusses monetary policy. It is informally divided in two parts: The former discusses the rationale for and the main features of the current institutional ‘architecture’ related to monetary policy. A formal analysis of time inconsistency of optimal discretionary policy and the concomitant inflationary bias is followed by analyses of commitment and reputation. Subsequently, the Chapter looks at possible resolutions of the difficulties associated with discretionary policy, including independent Central Banks and inflation targeting. It also discusses the new features and proposals that emerged post-2007–9. A ‘policy in practice’ section looks at Taylor rules. In the latter part, we review the recent analyses on financial structure and the ‘credit channel(s)’ of monetary policy transmission. The chapter concludes with a review of Quantitative Easing, macroprudential regulation, and the current thinking on monetary policy as part of a wider package of optimal stabilization policy.

Inflation Targeting and the IMF

Policy Papers ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 2006 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Technical Assistance ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework ◽  
The Imf

Inflation targeting is becoming the monetary policy framework of choice in a growing number of emerging market and developing countries. This paper examines the experience of non-industrial inflation targeting countries to review the implications for the Fund’s approach to surveillance, technical assistance, and the design of conditionality in Fund-supported programs. For this examination, the paper uses macroeconomic data, technical assistance reports, and a new survey of central banks in selected emerging markets.

scholarly journals Inflation targeting and its discontents: The case of Poland

2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (s1) ◽  
pp. 107-122
Author(s):  
Piotr Ciżkowicz ◽  
Andrzej Rzońca
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
General Evaluation ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Leaning Against The Wind ◽  
High Uncertainty

The paper provides a general evaluation of inflation targeting in Poland with some reference to challenges faced by major central banks. First, it argues that inflation targeting has proved to be relatively successful in Poland and attributes this success to a bias towards the aggressive mitigation of inflationary risks, whenever they have arisen. Second, it briefly explains why the National Bank of Poland does not need to search for an alternative to inflation targeting. Then, it presents the negative aspects of the price level targeting and nominal GDP targeting. Third, it refers to the post- EU accession experience of Poland as being supportive for the “leaning against the wind” approach to monetary policy conducting. Fourth, it argues that such an approach is supported by evidence on the effects of the crisis’ outburst and aggressive interest rate cuts on trust in central banks. Fifth, it indicates the determinants of slow post-crisis restructuring and persistently high uncertainty as desired priorities in the research agenda in central banks.

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