Interakcje polityki pieniężnej i fiskalnej a niezależność banku centralnego – przegląd możliwych podejść modelowych w badaniach empirycznych

There are numerous theoretical and empirical studies on interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Even if the independence of central banks affects those interactions, it has rarely been directly included in those studies. In this chapter, we present two general approaches to empirical studies on interactions between those two policies and the possibilities for inclusion of independence of central banks in their modelling. Generally, the first approach has poor theoretic background and relies on simple models describing rules for fiscal and monetary policies. Those models also include proxies for some aspects of fiscal policy. Similarly, some simple measures usually address the independence of central banks. The second approach most often roots in the fiscal theory of the price level. The overwhelming majority of presented studies report a significant impact of the central banks’ independence in the form of a more sustainable policy using the first approach.

Model kursu walutowego PLN/EUR. Aplikacja modelu Tobit-CVAR

Although there are numerous theoretical frameworks and statistical tools, while modelling exchange rates researchers usually focus on one of the factors that shape the actual exchange rate. In this chapter, we present a model that allows us to consider non-stationary variables. Apart from this, we are also able to examine separately the impact of fundamental macroeconomic factors and market factors on exchange rates. For exchange rate PLN/EUR, our results support economic hypotheses.

Ewolucja metod analizy skutków integracji handlowej

The theory of economic integration dates back to the mid-20th century. In the 1970s, initial empirical studies on the effects of economic integration appeared during the first stage of the functioning of the customs union in the European Economic Community. Researchers mostly highlighted the customs union’s static effects: trade creation, trade expansion, and trade diversion. The gravity model of trade became the basic econometric model for the ex-post analysis of the effects of economic integration, usually implying the positive impact of the integration on the trade flow. However, the expansion of integration and the trade negotiations created a need for the ex-ante analysis of the effects of such activities. To this end, the simulation models were developed, in particular computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Such models allow for the analysis of how the economy might react to the changes; however, their complexity limits their usability in public discourse.

Central banks’ voting contest

This chapter compares how effective different voting algorithms are for the decisions taken by monetary policy councils. A voting activity index is proposed and computed as the ratio of the number of all possible decisions to the total number of different combinations of decisions available to a given composition of an MPC. The voting systems considered are these used by the US Federal Reserve Board and the central banks of the UK, Australia, Canada, Sweden and Poland. In the dynamic simulation model, which emulates voting decisions, the heterogeneous agents act upon individual forecast signals and optimise a Taylor-like decision function. The selection criterion is based on the simulated probability of staying within the bounds that define the inflationary target. The general conclusion is that the voting algorithm used by the Bank of Sweden is the best given the criteria applied, especially when inflation is initially outside the target bounds. It is observed that a decrease in inflation forecast uncertainty, which is inversely proportional to the correlation between the forecast signals delivered to members of the monetary policy board, makes the voting less effective.

Kształcenie doktorantów w Polsce: rola czynników popytowych i podażowych

This chapter focuses on tertiary education, which is a rare subject in studies on education. We present the determinants of the development of doctoral studies in Poland during the last two decades. The supply determinants stemmed from legal and financial solutions. The situation on the labour market for doctoral degree holders shaped the demand, even if need for graduates of tertiary education outside of Academia is limited to particular fields of science and law.

Modelowanie przedsiębiorstwa międzynarodowego

Neoclassical economics, a dominant framework until the 1970s and 1980s, treated activities of the multinational firms as a part of portfolio theories of international capital flows. The analysis of various kinds of imperfect competition or firm heterogeneity was impossible until the elements of the theory of industrial organization were introduced into the international trade theory. This modification allowed direct inclusion of two basic motivations for establishing multinational firms, horizontal and vertical ones, in the analysis. In this chapter, we present the basic theoretical models that incorporate those two trends (Helpman-Krugman-Markusen models) as well as the imperfect attempts at their integration (the knowledge-capital model) and the most important examples of empirical studies aimed at the verification of their theoretical claims.

Environmental inequality

Unlike income inequality, environmental inequality has not been researched in Poland widely. In this chapter, we combine environmental monitoring data with economic indicators in order to address the question of whether regional disparities in environmental quality are linked to income differentials. It turns out that variation of air quality cannot be easily explained by regional economic indicators. The study serves as an exercise in simple econometric modelling.

Kiedy przejść na emeryturę? Opłacalność odraczania emerytury w systemie emerytalnym ZUS

In this chapter, we analyze the circumstances that one should consider while deciding when to retire. In Poland, over 90 percent of workers decide to retire either at the retirement age or shortly after. However, the results of our models indicate that ability to compare the individual and the general life expectancy allows one to benefit from postponing retirement. The demographic causes and the current Polish pension scheme make the odds of profit in favour of women.

Modelowanie dzietności: adaptacja modelu Lee–Cartera

We present modified Lee–Carter models for modelling fertility. We analyse Polish Central Statistical Office data on total births by age of mothers in Poland from 1971 to 2018 and the age of mothers at the moment of giving birth to the first child in Poland from 1971 to 2017. Although Lee–Carter model was designed for mortality modelling and forecasting, we adapt it to highlight a direct relationship between the model parameters and the evolution of gross reproduction rate and the average age of giving birth to the first child, both in cross-sectional and cohort view.