Bayesian Causal Network Modeling Suggests Adolescent Cannabis Use Promotes Accelerated Prefrontal Cortical Thinning
While there is substantial evidence that cannabis use is associated with differences in brain structure and function, most of this evidence is correlational in nature. This is particularly true regarding the association of adolescent cannabis use on human brain development, which cannot be tested in an experimental approach. Bayesian causal network (BCN) modeling attempts to identify probable causal associations in correlational data by using the conditional probabilities among a set of interrelated variables to estimate directional associations between those variables. The current report builds on a recent analysis conducted by Albaugh et al. (2021) that found an association between neurodevelopment and cannabis use in the IMAGEN study of adolescent brain development. Here, we employ BCN modeling on the same sample to provide evidence that the associations found previously are driven by cannabis use affecting neurodevelopment and not, for example, by a pre-existing neurodevelopmental trajectory that also promotes cannabis use. Structural MRI was acquired at ages 14 and 19, from which average cortical thickness was derived for a region of interest in the dorsal prefrontal cortex identified by Albaugh et al. as differing in adolescents who initiated cannabis use between ages 14 and 19. Adolescents were all cannabis naïve at age 14 and 46% had used cannabis at least once by age 19. We tested multiple learning algorithms with a variety of different parameters to build BCNs that would describe the relationship between cortical thickness and cannabis use. All BCN models strongly suggested a directional relationship from cannabis use between the ages of 14 and 19 to accelerated cortical thinning during that same period. Acknowledging that BCN modeling cannot prove a causal relationship between adolescent cannabis use and accelerated cortical thinning, these results are consistent with a body of preclinical and human research suggesting that adolescent cannabis use adversely affects brain development.