Young children’s sensitivity to priors in causal inference reflects their mechanistic knowledge
This manuscript examines the relation between preschoolers’ ability to integrate base rates into their causal inferences about objects with their understanding that objects have stable properties that deterministically relate to their causal properties. Three- and 4-year-olds were tested on two measures of causal inference. In the first, children were shown a pattern of ambiguous data that could be resolved by appealing to base rate information. In the second, children’s mechanistic assumptions about the same causal system were tested, specifically to determine if they recognized that an object’s causal efficacy was related to it possessing a stable internal property. Children who possessed this mechanism information were more likely to resolve the ambiguous information by appealing to base rates. The results are discussed in terms of rational models of children’s causal inference.