scholarly journals Learning from 2016: predicting elections through Twitter

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Stroh ◽  
Sebastian Reiserer
Keyword(s):  
News Coverage ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
The Us ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
The Media ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Twitter Users ◽  
To Come

What happened during the news coverage for the 2016 election cycle(s) is a case study that will be studied for years to come. The failure to accurately predict Brexit or Donald Trump’s success in the US presidential election left everybody perplexed as neither, especially the latter, was ever predicted to occur. This research investigates the failures of the media to predict Trump’s election and investigates whether Twitter can be used in the place of existing procedures to correctly predict elections. Data obtained through this research shows that online discussion of Trump by Twitter users was higher than discussion of Hillary Clinton during four critical events leading up to election day. This paper argues that this data can be used to make successful predictions for election outcomes. The findings and conclusion help underscore the importance of this type of research, not only in terms of predicting elections via Twitter, but also in terms of how such insights might benefit the media and its audiences.

The 2016 Election: Like 1888 but not 1876 or 2000

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Barthélémy ◽  
Mathieu Martin ◽  
Ashley Piggins
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Anomalous Behavior ◽  
Electoral College ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
The Us ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
House Size

ABSTRACTDonald J. Trump won the 2016 US presidential election with fewer popular votes than Hillary R. Clinton. This is the fourth time this has happened, the others being 1876, 1888, and 2000. In earlier work, we analyzed these elections (and others) and showed how the electoral winner can often depend on the size of the US House of Representatives. This work was inspired by Neubauer and Zeitlin (2003, 721–5) in their paper, “Outcomes of Presidential Elections and the House Size.” A sufficiently larger House would have given electoral victories to the popular vote winner in both 1876 and 2000. An exception is the election of 1888. We show that Trump’s victory in 2016 is like Harrison’s in 1888 and unlike Hayes’s in 1876 and Bush’s in 2000. This article updates our previous work to include the 2016 election. It also draws attention to some of the anomalous behavior that can arise under the Electoral College.

scholarly journals Calculated vs. Ad Hoc Publics in the #Brexit Discourse on Twitter and the Role of Business Actors

Information ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theo Lynn ◽  
Pierangelo Rosati ◽  
Binesh Nair
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Underlying Structure ◽  
Detection Analysis ◽  
Network Analytics ◽  
Mobilization Theory ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Media ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Mobilization theory posits that social media gives a voice to non-traditional actors in socio-political discourse. This study uses network analytics to understand the underlying structure of the Brexit discourse and whether the main sub-networks identify new publics and influencers in political participation, and specifically industry stakeholders. Content analytics and peak detection analysis are used to provide greater explanatory values to the organizing themes for these sub-networks. Our findings suggest that the Brexit discourse on Twitter can be largely explained by calculated publics organized around the two campaigns and political parties. Ad hoc communities were identified based on (i) the media, (ii) geo-location, and (iii) the US presidential election. Other than the media, significant sub-communities did not form around industry as whole or around individual sectors or leaders. Participation by business accounts in the Twitter discourse had limited impact.

Central European local investors will hold on to bonds

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Us ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
To Come

Significance The lira’s collapse is fuelling outflows from Turkey’s local currency government debt market, as foreign investors reduce their purchases of emerging market (EM) domestic debt amid a sharp sell-off in bond markets following Donald Trump’s upset victory in the US presidential election. Both Hungary and Poland -- hitherto two of the most resilient EMs -- suffered net outflows last year and are likely to come under further pressure as the ECB starts to scale back, or ‘taper’, its programme of quantitative easing (QE) in April. Impacts The dollar’s rise against a basket of other currencies since the US election will put severe strain on EM assets. The surging price of Brent crude is improving the inflation and growth outlook. Higher international oil prices will also reduce the scope for further easing of monetary policy in developing and developed economies.

scholarly journals Hillary Clinton and the Media: From Expected Roles to the Critique of Feminism

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Topic ◽  
Etajha Gilmer
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Discourse Analysis ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Washington Post ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Media Criticism ◽  
Liberal Feminism ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Media

In this paper, we analysed Hillary Clinton’s relationship with the media starting from her first appointment at a US First Lady to her being the Democratic nominee for the US presidential elections in 2016. Thus, we analysed academic literature demonstrating Clinton’s problems with the media bias, and then added our own discourse analysis of articles on Clinton and feminism in two main national newspapers that have consistently demonstrated the power of setting the agenda and forming public opinion in the U.S. – The Washington Post and The New York Times. Discourse analysis has been used to analyse 20 selected articles that discussed Clinton’s feminist views in a period from September 2015 until September 2016, which was also a campaign period for 2016 U.S. elections. The findings add to the current research on the topic and show that the media undermined liberal feminism and its goals to undermine Hillary Clinton, whereas in the past Hillary was a subject of media criticism because of her refusal to fit into expected roles and be a supportive wife only. The discourse of criticism of Hillary Clinton has changed over time but every time with the same results, undermining the image and career advancement.

The Mars Meteorite: A case study in controls on dissemination of science news

2000 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Kiernan
Keyword(s):  
American Association ◽  
News Coverage ◽  
Press Coverage ◽  
Science News ◽  
The Media ◽  
Media Reports

Through interviews with participants and analysis of media reports, this paper reconstructs the preparations for the 1996 announcement of the discovery of evidence of fossilized life in a meteorite from Mars. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) attempted to manipulate the timing and manner of press coverage. Contrary to the stated rationale for embargoes on science news, premature disclosure of the paper in the media resulted in news coverage that was largely accurate.

Hillary Clinton as International Emissary and Scorned Wife

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn J. Parry-Giles
Keyword(s):  
News Coverage ◽  
Nation State ◽  
World Conference ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Fourth World ◽  
First Lady ◽  
The Media

This chapter analyzes the coverage of Clinton's international excursions beginning in 1995 and ending with the media frenzy over the Clinton–Lewinsky scandal from 1998 through early 1999. As Clinton entered the international spaces of politics as a U.S. emissary, she was framed increasingly as the silent and more appropriately gendered first lady, visualized in the global spaces yet given minimal voice in primetime news coverage. At the first sign of discord, however, the surveillance and scrutiny would begin again, especially coinciding with her very public and outspoken actions during the 1995 Fourth World Conference on Women in China. The dissipation of controversy over most of Clinton's seventy-eight international trips as first lady suggested that the true spaces of contestation for vocal political women existed within the boundaries of the nation-state.

scholarly journals Media logic in the coverage of election promises: comparative evidence from the Netherlands and the US

Acta Politica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erkan Ergün ◽  
Niels Karsten
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
News Coverage ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Comprehensive Understanding ◽  
The Us ◽  
Inclusive Approach ◽  
The Media ◽  
Media Logic ◽  
Source Of Information

Abstract This article analyzes the occurrence of media logic in the coverage of election promises in the Netherlands and the US. Whereas studies of media logic commonly focus separate attention on one of its various manifestations, we believe a comprehensive understanding requires a more inclusive approach. In response, we include five aspects of media logic in our study of news coverage: the occurrence of (a) the strategy frame, (b) the game frame, (c) the conflict frame, (d) personalization, and (e) negativity. Our study contributes innovatively to the existing literature by taking an approach that, rather than starting from campaign manifestos, analyzes election promises as they are reported on in newspapers. We take this approach because the media are the primary source of information about election promises for citizens. The results of our study indicate that media logic is ubiquitous in the coverage of election promises, but that media logic does not always behave across different media and political systems in the way the literature predicts. Notably, the results show that, in contrast to our expectations, coverage of election promises is more negative in the Netherlands than in the US.

scholarly journals What can Counselors do to Lessen the Trauma to the DACA Population Caused by the 2016 Election Cycle Rhetoric?

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. p43
Author(s):  
Tina Chaney ◽  
Barbara Nell Martin
Keyword(s):  
Counselor Training ◽  
School Setting ◽  
Urban School ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Western City ◽  
The Impact

 This case study focused on the impact to DACA participants in a mid-western city enrolled at an urban school setting in a region where 30% of all residing immigrants are unauthorized (Capps & Ruiz Soto, 2016). The investigation aimed to understand if the language used during the 2016 election cycle altered trauma-related behaviors in the DACA population. The data collected during the study suggested that students who identified with the DACA group exhibited trauma-related behaviors different from behaviors previously observed, and the new behaviors were a result of election cycle rhetoric. Implications for counselor training were significant.

Cold War redux in US–Russia relations? The effects of US media framing and public opinion of the 2008 Russia–Georgia war

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 513-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oksan Bayulgen ◽  
Ekim Arbatli
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Media Framing ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Cold War

This paper examines the Cold War rhetoric in US–Russia relations by looking at the 2008 Russia–Georgia war as a major breaking point. We investigate the links between media, public opinion and foreign policy. In our content analysis of the coverage in two major US newspapers, we find that the framing of the conflict was anti-Russia, especially in the initial stages of the conflict. In addition, our survey results demonstrate that an increase in the media exposure of US respondents increased the likelihood of blaming Russia exclusively in the conflict. This case study helps us understand how media can be powerful in constructing a certain narrative of an international conflict, which can then affect public perceptions of other countries. We believe that the negative framing of Russia in the US media has had important implications for the already-tenuous relations between the US and Russia by reviving and perpetuating the Cold War mentality for the public as well as for foreign policymakers.

Setting the agenda in a distant nation: The 2016 US presidential election in a New Zealand newspaper

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-161
Author(s):  
Shah Nister Kabir
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The Other ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The Media ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Media Outlet

AbstractExamining the coverage of the 2016 US Presidential election of the highest circulating New Zealand newspaper—the New Zealand Herald (NZH)—this study argues that this newspaper sets agenda against Donald Trump—the Republican Party candidate in the 2016 US election. Examining all news, editorials and photographs published in NZH, it discursively argues that this newspaper overshadowed and dehumanized Trump and especially his leadership ability. The other major candidate—the Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton—was applauded in the coverage. The NZH repeatedly focused upon the activities of Trump through news, views and images to dehumanize him. The repetition, therefore, does not necessarily mean that a particular media outlet favors a particular candidate. It also argues that the media outlet of a distant nation that cannot influence its reader to vote for a particular candidate may still set the agenda in favor of a candidate.

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