Risks Involved in Transit Provision of Bus Contracts

Author(s):  
Sebastián Tamblay ◽  
Antonio Gschwender ◽  
Marina Dragicevic ◽  
Juan Carlos Muñoz

To design and evaluate contractual arrangements for transit service delivery, it is crucial to understand the risks assumed by the actors involved. This understanding in turn clarifies the incentive structures of the contracts and their expected effects as well as explains the performance and development of public transport systems. This study examined urban bus contracts and presented a framework that grouped the risks inherent in any transit system, extended the usual dimensions of the analysis, and allowed for the examination of more complex contracts. This methodology was applied to current contracts of Transantiago, in Chile, which had been in effect since mid-2012, and showed that various contractual mechanisms transferred risks to the transit authorities. These mechanisms were shown to reduce operators’ revenue risk from 70% to around 25%, to weaken incentives, and to move the system further away from the 2012 reform objectives. This situation contributed to the persistence of a serious problem of buses skipping stops and fare evasion. In addition, a large proportion of users were captive to a single operator; this setup generated incentive issues in service planning. The analysis advised against the inclusion of demand risk reduction clauses because they might guarantee part of the operators’ income. Instead, stronger incentives could be generated by reducing the importance of the passengers transported in the payment formula while increasing that of service indicators. Complementarily, new solutions to the system’s remaining problems are suggested for further research, such as direct penalties for skipping stops or payments directly linked to fare evasion rates.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lynn Scholl ◽  
Felipe Bedoya-Maya ◽  
Orlando Sabogal-Cardona ◽  
Daniel Oviedo

As transit ridership continues to fall in many cities across the globe, key policy debates continue around whether Uber and other ride-hailing services are contributing to this trend. This research explores the effects of the introduction of ride-hailing to Colombian cities on public transportation ridership using Ubers timeline as case study. We test the hypothesis that ride-hailing may either substitute or compete with public transit, particularly in cities with large transit service gaps in coverage or quality. Our analysis builds on historic transit ridership data from national authorities and uses a staggered difference-in-difference model that accounts for fixed effects, seasonality, socioeconomic controls, and the presence of integrated transport systems. Despite large reductions in transit ridership in most cities, our results suggest that Uber is not statistically associated with the observed drop in ridership. Moreover, consistent with evidence from previous research, public transit reforms implemented between 2007 and 2015 throughout Colombian cities appear to have contributed substantially to the declines in transit ridership observed across the country. Findings in this paper inform policy-targeted insights and contribute to current debates of the links between ride-hailing and public transit in cities in Latin America.


Author(s):  
Alexander Legrain ◽  
Ron Buliung ◽  
Ahmed M. El-Geneidy

Public transportation agencies are faced with the difficult task of providing adequate service during peak travel periods while maintaining adequate service for those traveling off-peak or outside a city or region's densest areas. The ability or inability of a transit system to meet these needs helps explain transit ridership rates. This research sought to understand how daily fluctuations in transit service were related to ridership in the greater Toronto and Hamilton area, in Canada, for different segments of the labor force. Many variables—including frequency and proximity of transit service, socioeconomic status, the built environment, and accessibility to employment through transit—have been linked to transit use in past research. However, many previous studies focused only on travel during peak hours. This study investigated whether fluctuations in service and demand were related to transit ridership rates. With the use of six time periods, an improved understanding of daily variation in transit mode share for commuting trips was produced. With a further division of the commuting population into two employment wage categories, it was demonstrated that the common understanding of the influences on transit ridership was potentially misleading. Commuting transit mode share and the variables that influence it are intimately related to when travel is needed and to what jobs people are traveling. To encourage transit use, agencies and researchers need to take into account commuters’ need to commute at a variety of time periods.


2005 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Trépanier ◽  
Robert Chapleau ◽  
Bruno Allard

AI Magazine ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengyu Yin ◽  
Albert Xin Jiang ◽  
Milind Tambe ◽  
Christopher Kiekintveld ◽  
Kevin Leyton-Brown ◽  
...  

In proof-of-payment transit systems, passengers are legally required to purchase tickets before entering but are not physically forced to do so. Instead, patrol units move about the transit system, inspecting the tickets of passengers, who face fines if caught fare evading. The deterrence of fare evasion depends on the unpredictability and effectiveness of the patrols. In this paper, we present TRUSTS, an application for scheduling randomized patrols for fare inspection in transit systems. TRUSTS models the problem of computing patrol strategies as a leader-follower Stackelberg game where the objective is to deter fare evasion and hence maximize revenue. This problem differs from previously studied Stackelberg settings in that the leader strategies must satisfy massive temporal and spatial constraints; moreover, unlike in these counterterrorism-motivated Stackelberg applications, a large fraction of the ridership might realistically consider fare evasion, and so the number of followers is potentially huge. A third key novelty in our work is deliberate simplification of leader strategies to make patrols easier to be executed. We present an efficient algorithm for computing such patrol strategies and present experimental results using real-world ridership data from the Los Angeles Metro Rail system. The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s department is currently carrying out trials of TRUSTS.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 321
Author(s):  
Alessandro Emilio Capodici ◽  
Gabriele D’Orso ◽  
Marco Migliore

Background: In a world where every municipality is pursuing the goals of more sustainable mobility, bicycles play a fundamental role in getting rid of private cars and travelling by an eco-friendly mode of transport. Additionally, private and shared bikes can be used as a feeder transit system, solving the problem of the first- and last-mile trips. Thanks to GIS (Geographic Information System) software, it is possible to evaluate the effectiveness of such a sustainable means of transport in future users’ modal choice. Methods: Running an accessibility analysis of cycling and rail transport services, the potential mobility demand attracted by these services and the possible multimodality between bicycle and rail transport systems can be assessed. Moreover, thanks to a modal choice model calibrated for high school students, it could be verified if students will be really motivated to adopt this solution for their home-to-school trips. Results: The GIS-based analysis showed that almost half of the active population in the study area might potentially abandon the use of their private car in favour of a bike and its combination with public transport systems; furthermore, the percentage of the students of one high school of Palermo, the Einstein High School, sharply increases from 1.5% up to 10.1%, thanks also to the combination with the rail transport service. Conclusions: The GIS-based methodology shows that multimodal transport can be an effective way to pursue a more sustainable mobility in cities and efficiently connect suburbs with low-frequent public transport services to the main public transport nodes.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2531 (1) ◽  
pp. 170-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Karner ◽  
Aaron Golub

Understanding the equity effects of transit service changes requires good information about the demographics of transit ridership. Onboard survey data and census data can be used to estimate equity effects, although there is no clear reason to conclude that these two sources will lead to the same findings. Guidance from the FTA recommends the use of either of these data sources to estimate equity impacts. This study made a direct comparison of the two methods for the public transit system in the Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area. The results indicated that although both sources were acceptable for FTA compliance, the use of one or the other could affect whether a proposed service change was deemed equitable. In other words, the outcome of a service change equity analysis could differ as a result of the data source used. To ensure the integrity and meaning of such analyses, FTA should recommend the collection and use of ridership data for conducting service change analyses to supplement approaches that are based on census data.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bowen Hou ◽  
Shuzhi Zhao ◽  
Huasheng Liu ◽  
Jin Li

Traditional transit systems are susceptible to unexpected costs and delays due to unforeseen events, such as vehicle breakdowns. The randomness of these events gives the appearance of an imbalance in the number of operating vehicles and of unreliable transit services. Therefore, this paper proposes the queueing theory as a means to characterize the state of any given transit system considering the risk of vehicle breakdowns. In addition, the proposed method is used to create an optimized model for reserve fleet sizes in transit systems, in order to ensure the reliability of the transit system and minimize the total cost of any transit system exposed to the risks of vehicle breakdowns. The optimization is conducted based on the two main characteristics of all bus systems, namely, operator costs and user costs, in both normal and disruptive situations. In addition, the situations in our optimization are generated in scenarios that have a certain degree of probability of experiencing delays. This paper formulates such an optimization model, presents the formulation solution method, and proves the validity of the proposed method.


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