scholarly journals The Impact of Inflation Anchor Strength and Monetary Policy Transparency on Inflation During the Period of Emerging Market Volatility in Summer 2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (3) ◽  
pp. 71-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana Evdokimova ◽  
◽  
Grigory Zhirnov ◽  
Inge Klaver ◽  
◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
pp. 45-88
Author(s):  
Juan Antonio Morales ◽  
Paul Reding

This chapter explores the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) in low financial development countries (LFDCs). It successively discusses the interest rate, asset price, bank credit, balance sheet, expectations, and real balance channels. For each channel, conceptual aspects about how it operates, how it transmits monetary policy impulses to the economy’s financial and real spheres, are first presented. Next, the impact of the specificities of LFDCs on the channel’s strength and reliability are examined and the available empirical evidence is surveyed. The chapter concludes with a global assessment of the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism in LFDCs. Evidence points to a transmission mechanism that is effective although not very strong, and possibly also more uncertain than in advanced and emerging market countries.


2019 ◽  
Vol 06 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950019
Author(s):  
Zia Abbas ◽  
Syed Faizan Iftikhar ◽  
Shaista Alam

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of bank capital on monetary policy transmission mechanism during the period from 2010 to 2016 for 20 Emerging Market Economics (EMEs) by using the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM). The coefficient of excess capital in low-asset countries is found to be negative which reveals the importance of excess capital for the effectiveness of monetary transmission. However, the study could not find the significance of excess capital for high-asset countries as they may afford the risky way to generate their income by increasing the loan supply.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Janusz Brzeszczyński ◽  
Jerzy Gajdka ◽  
Tomasz Schabek ◽  
Ali M Kutan

PurposeThis study contributes to the pool of knowledge about the impact of monetary policy communication of central banks on financial instruments' prices and assets' value in emerging markets.Design/methodology/approachEmpirical analysis is executed using the National Bank of Poland (NBP) announcements about its monetary policy covering the data from the broad financial market in its three main segments: stock market, foreign exchange market and bonds market. The reactions are measured relative to the changes in the NBP announcements and also with respect to investors' expectations. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models with dummy variables are used as the main methodological tool.FindingsBonds market and foreign exchange market are the most sensitive market segments, while interest rate and money supply are the most influential types of announcements. The changes of the revealed new macroeconomic figures had more impact on assets' prices movements than the deviations from their expectations. Moreover, greater diversity of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members' opinions on the voted motions, captured in the MPC voting reports, is associated with more cases of statistically significant NBP communication events.Practical implicationsThe findings have direct relevance for fund managers, portfolio analysts, investors and also for financial market regulators.Originality/valueThe results provide novel evidence about how the emerging financial market responds to monetary policy announcements. They help understand the nature of the impact of public information on financial assets' valuation and on movements of their prices, analysed comprehensively in three market segments, in the emerging market environment.


Subject The impact of persistently low inflation on the pace of monetary policy 'regime change' in most countries. Significance The US Federal Reserve (Fed) published the minutes of its June 14 interest rate-setting meeting on July 5, showing increasing divisions over the pace of tightening as inflation eases. The Fed remains committed to starting to shrink its 4.5-trillion-dollar balance sheet this year, but there are disagreements over the timing of both the unwinding and further rate hikes. Subdued inflation is also constraining the ECB’s plans to withdraw its monetary stimulus, despite speculation about a ‘regime change’ in monetary policy driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year Bund to its highest point since January 2016. Impacts The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has risen since June but remains below its mid-March level when ‘reflation trading’ was in full swing. Emerging market bond funds are vulnerable to tighter policy and suffered outflows for the first time this year in the week ending July 5. The average world oil price has fallen by more than 10% since May to below 50 dollars a barrel amid concerns of a supply glut. The Bank of Canada may raise rates for the first time in nearly seven years on July 12, while the Fed chair will testify before Congress.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6(J)) ◽  
pp. 52-65
Author(s):  
Sheunesu Zhou

The study provides an analysis of the relationships between monetary policy, shadow banking and bank liquidity in emerging market economies. It is aimed at broadening knowledge on the effect of shadow banking on monetary policy transmission. Furthermore, the study seeks to analyze the impact of changes in bank liquidity on the growth of the shadow banking sector. We employ panel VAR technique to analyse the dynamics of monetary policy, shadow banking and bank liquidity using data for 15 emerging economy countries. A contractionary monetary policy shock results in a decrease in shadow banking and a decrease in bank liquidity. We also find that a positive shock in bank liquidity increases shadow bank growth and a positive shock in shadow banking also increases bank liquidity. The results point to complementarity between shadow banking and bank liquidity; and the interconnectedness between the two markets in emerging economies. We suggest continuous monitoring of shadow banking activities to minimize transmission of risk from the shadow banking system into the banking sector.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuriy Nikolayev ◽  

The article is devoted to the study of conditions of application and influence of non-traditional monetary policy of central banks of developed countries on national economies and economies of emerging market countries. Based on critical analysis and systematization of basic research on the analysis of non-traditional monetary policy and its impact on the economies of different countries, it is substantiated that non-traditional monetary policy is a set of measures aimed at restoring the transmission mechanism and eliminating financial market imbalances. The main tools of non-traditional monetary policy are - previous management, quantitative easing; credit easing; negative interest rates, qualitative mitigation. Relevant areas of research on the financial performance of economies were also justified, as monetary policy directly affects interest rates, money supply, exchange rates, availability of credit, and through the financial sector to other sectors of the economy. During the aggravation of the economic and debt crisis, which had a negative impact on the Eurozone countries, investors' interest in CEE countries increased due to higher interest rates and the opportunity to make more profits. The study of the impact of the ECB's monetary policy on the financial indicators of Central and Eastern Europe revealed that the ECB's unconventional policy, including quantitative easing aimed at lowering long-term interest rates, affected the yield on government bonds of almost all EU countries, not only member states. euro area, which generally declined after 2014. Non-traditional monetary policy and an increase in the ECB's balance sheet also affect investment flows to CEE countries, but are mainly debt instruments in both direct and portfolio investment. The opposite situation is observed in the Eurozone countries with a high debt burden, especially in Greece and Italy. Despite the fact that the ECB's policy has led the euro area countries with a high level of debt to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, there is a tendency to increase the share of public debt payments to GDP. In this situation, the ECB simply cannot significantly change the purpose of its monetary policy, because any, even small, increase in the discount rate will lead to a new debt crisis in the Eurozone with its epicenter in Italy and Greece. The study of the impact of non-traditional policies of the Bank of Japan, the Fed and the ECB on the economy of Ukraine confirms the hypothesis that the actions of the ECB have the greatest impact on the financial performance of Ukraine. The analysis shows the impact of non-traditional monetary policy on the exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia to the euro, US dollar and Japanese yen, but it was not significant. This is due to the fact that monetary policy in Ukraine only in 2015 actually moved from a fixed exchange rate to a floating exchange rate and began to apply inflation targeting. Announcements of non-traditional monetary policy have also affected government bond yields and stock indices, but the Ukrainian stock market is underdeveloped and has little effect. The main influence was the first programs of non-traditional monetary policy of the ECB, the USA and the Bank of Japan. In times when non-traditional measures were just being introduced and difficult to regulate and predict. Thus, it was proved that, on the one hand, unconventional monetary policy can stimulate economic growth, and on the other hand, create significant risks for further monetary policy opportunities to counter future crises.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khaliq Lubza Nihar ◽  
Kameshwar Rao Venkata Surya Modekurti

Purpose This paper aims to undertake a comprehensive comparative analysis of Sharīʿah-compliant equity investments (SCEIs) and their non-Sharīʿah counterparts, in India, conditioning for investment horizon and market volatility. Indirectly, it also investigates for time varying performance of SCEIs, and explicitly analyses the unsystematic risk and related adequacy of returns. Design/methodology/approach Testing for statistical significance of differences in risks and returns; analysing portfolio performance using conventional metrics, information ratio, and Jensen's Alpha; Estimating returns due to stock selection and market timing using Fama’s Net Selectivity and Treynor and Mazuy’s Models. Findings SCEIs in India do not significantly differ in their total risks and returns compared to their conventional counterparts. While their risk is lower in the monthly and quarterly investment horizons, their Jensen’s Alphas are positive only in the annual investment horizons. These findings hold, when market volatility is low. Market timing wipes out the superior returns that exist due to stock selection in SCEIs. Research limitations/implications Being Sharīʿah-compliant is beneficial only in longer investment horizons. Asset selection, not co-movement with the market, is key to excess returns to compensate for risks due to inadequate diversification. However, only cautious market timing can conserve them. Practical implications Though investors are not better-off in choosing ethical investments, they are not worse-off either. Being Sharīʿah-compliant is rewarding during less volatile markets. Originality/value This paper extends international literature on SCEIs, with evidence on the impact of investment horizon and market volatility on their returns and risks. Further, this paper is also a comprehensive analysis of Indian SCEIs, broadening the empirical evidence on a significant, non-Islamic and emerging market.


Author(s):  
Zhandos Ybrayev

In this paper, I explain theoretically the coordination and conflict scheme of fiscal and monetary policy workings, and then empirically assess the effect of both inflation-targeting and non-inflation-only targeting policies on inflation and unemployment rates. I employ a difference-in-difference method to estimate the impact on inflation, the unemployment rate, and their volatilities in both 10 inflation-targeting (single-mandate) and 11 non-inflation-targeting (multiple-mandate) countries specifically from the sample of developing economies over the period from 1998 to 2018. Our key findings show that while the inflation-targeting countries effectively present a reduction in inflation and inflation volatility, the effects on the unemployment rate are negligible, while unemployment volatility is higher in the period 1998–2008. Finally, the paper argues that the unemployment rate should be used as a natural second target in a typical emerging-market economy case.


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