An Interest Stabilisation Mechanism to Unburden the ECB

Following the twin crises of sovereign debt and COVID-19, the ECB risks being stuck in a situation of fiscal dominance, in which monetary policy is subordinated to the needs of finance ministers. A strong post-COVID-19 recovery may increase inflationary pressures, requiring a shift towards a less accommodative monetary policy stance. A tightening of monetary policy may, however, lead to a widening of interest rate spreads and new bond market tensions in the euro area. This article argues that the credibility of the ECB is undermined if it is perceived as aiming to close interest spreads. Interest spreads between euro countries arising from fiscal concerns should be a matter of fiscal policy, not monetary policy. The establishment of an interest stabilisation mechanism would allow the ECB to restore monetary dominance and to focus on maintaining price stability.

Determinants of interest rate spreads of conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

The purpose of this study is to examine the variables that determine the interest rate spreads (IRS) of conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). There are four major variables that affect a bank’s interest rate spreads, namely financial bank, macroeconomics, economic freedom and market structure variables. The study participants are conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2017. Data was tested by using the OLS regression model. The results of this study show that all of the financial bank variables (Liquidity Risk (LR), Return to Asset Ratio (RTAR), Capital Adequacy (CA), Cost Efficiency Ratio (CER), and Risk Aversion (RA)) can significantly affect interest rate spreads. While of the macroeconomic variables, only two can significantly affect interest rate spreads, namely Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Inflation Rate (IR). Furthermore, all of the variables of economic freedom and market structure can significantly determine interest rate spreads. AcknowledgmentThe authors thank the Research Cluster of Governance and Competitiveness, Faculty of Administrative Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, for providing financial assistance and supporting materials related to discussion, and assistance in writing this paper.

The effects of bond ratings on income inequality in the developing world

Although the effects of globalization on income inequality has received much attention, missing from the discussion is the role played by credit rating agencies (CRAs) on income inequality. Using a sample of seventy developing countries from 1990–2015, we find that bond ratings have significant, yet indirect, effects on income inequality. We see that interest rate spreads, and to a lesser degree tax, labor, and monetary policies, mediate the relationship between ratings and income inequality. Specifically, developing countries receiving bond downgrades observe a rise in interest rate spreads. Countries with higher interest rate spreads tend to have less available credit, which reduces output and production, promoting surplus labor and its consequences for those at the bottom of the income distribution. Bond downgrades also compel developing countries to pursue neoliberal reforms, endorsed by the CRAs, in an attempt to lift their ratings. The effects of tax, labor, and monetary policies, in particular, appear to enlarge disparities between the rich and the poor. Our research helps to identify the mechanism by which CRAs and globalization, more generally, impact wealth disparities in the developing world.