scholarly journals ANALISIS KEKERINGAN DI KABUPATEN SRAGEN DENGAN METODE PALMER, THORNTHWAITE, DAN STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-124
Author(s):  
Safrudin Nor Aripbilah ◽  
Heri Suprapto
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Suitable Method ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Dry Conditions

El Nino and La Nina in Indonesia are one of the reasons that caused climate changes, which has possibility of drought and flood disasters. Sragen Regency wherethe dry season occurs, drought happened meanwhile other areas experience floods and landslides. A study on drought needs to be carried out so as to reduce the risk of losses due to the drought hazard. This study is to determine the drought index in Sragen Regency based on several methods and the correlation of each methods and its suitability to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall. Drought was analyzed using several methods such as Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Thornthwaite-Matter, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) then correlated with SOI to determine the most suitable method for SOI. The variables are applied in this method are rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration. The results showed that the drought potential of the Palmer method is only in Near Normal conditions, which is 1%, Severe drought conditions are 29% for the Thornthwaite-Matter method, and Extreme Dry conditions only reach 1,11% for the SPI method. The PDSI and SPI methods are inversely proportional to the Thornthwaite-Matter method and the most suitable method for SOI values or rainfall is the SPI method. These three methods can be identified the potential for drought with only a few variables so that they could be applied if they only have those data.Keywords: Drought, PDSI, Thornthwaite-Matter, SPI, SOI

scholarly journals Studi Analisa Kekeringan Metode Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dan Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) di DAS Kemuning Kabupaten Sampang

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 535-548
Author(s):  
Alfian Firdaus ◽  
◽  
Donny Harisuseno ◽  
Ery Suhartanto ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Distance Weighting ◽  
Inverse Distance ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Kekeringan ialah bencana alam yang terjadi secara perlahan dan berdampak buruk untuk kelangsungan hidup penduduk Kabupaten Sampang. Mengingat hal tersebut, perlu dilakukan analisa indeks kekeringan serta pemetaan sebarannya sebagai upaya mitigasi bencana kekeringan. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat keparahan kekeringan dengan metode Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dan Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), serta kesesuaiannya dengan data Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) yang mampu mempresentasikan kejadian El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Setelah itu, Indeks kekeringan yang lebih sesuai dengan pola SOI dipetakan dengan metode Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) untuk mengetahui sebaran kekeringan. Metode SPI menghasilkan indeks kekeringan terparah di bulan April 2004 sebesar -3,651 pada periode defisit 1 bulanan. Metode PDSI menghasilkan indeks kekeringan terparah di bulan September 2001 sebesar - 20,628. Berdasarkan hasil analisa rerata PDSI periode 1998-2017, diketahui bahwa bencana kekeringan umumnya bermula sejak bulan Juli dan berakhir di bulan Oktober, sedangkan puncak kekeringan terjadi pada bulan September. Metode PDSI juga memiliki kesesuaian sebesar 60% terhadap nilai SOI berdasarkan penggambaran grafik surplus dan defisit indeks rerata tahunan, lebih baik daripada metode SPI yang hanya bernilai 53%. Penggambaran peta sebaran kekeringan berdasarkan indeks kekeringan PDSI menunjukkan bahwa Kecamatan Sampang, Torjun, dan Camplong perlu diprioritaskan dalam upaya mitigasi bencana kekeringan di masa mendatang karena memiliki potensi bencana kekeringan lebih besar jika dibandingan kecamatan lainnya.

scholarly journals Dynamical delimitation of the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) using drought indices and aridity values

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 (5) ◽  
pp. 627-642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Eduardo Quesada-Hernández ◽  
Oscar David Calvo-Solano ◽  
Hugo G Hidalgo ◽  
Paula M Pérez-Briceño ◽  
Eric J Alfaro
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Rainfall Anomaly ◽  
Central American ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Southern Mexico

The Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) is a sub-region in the isthmus that is relatively drier than the rest of the territory. Traditional delineations of the CADC’s boundaries start at the Pacific coast of southern Mexico, stretching south through Central America’s Pacific coast down to northwestern Costa Rica (Guanacaste province). Using drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, Modified Rainfall Anomaly Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index, Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, Palmer Drought Z-Index and the Reconnaissance Drought Index) along with a definition of aridity as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration (representing demand of water from the atmosphere) over precipitation (representing the supply of water), we proposed a CADC delineation that changes for normal, dry and wet years. The identification of areas that change their classification during extremely dry conditions is important because these areas may indicate the location of future expansion of aridity associated with climate change. In the same way, the delineation of the CADC during wet extremes allows the identification of locations that remain part of the CADC even during the wettest years and that may require special attention from the authorities.

scholarly journals Analysis of Drought in the Northern Region of Bangladesh Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 199-216
Author(s):  
R Afrin ◽  
F Hossain ◽  
SA Mamun
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought is an extended period when a region notes a deficiency in its water supply. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method was used in this study to analyze drought. Northern region of Bangladesh was the area of study. Monthly rainfall data of northern region of Bangladesh was obtained from the Meteorological Department of Bangladesh. Obtained rainfall data was from 1991 to 2011 and values from 2012 to 2026 were generated using Markov model. Then SPI values from 1991 to 2026 were calculated by using SPI formula for analyzing drought. Analysis with SPI method showed that droughts in northern region of Bangladesh varied from moderately dry to severely dry conditions and it may vary from moderately dry to severely dry conditions normally in future but in some cases extreme drought may also take place. From the study, it is observed that the northern region of Bangladesh has already experienced severe drought in 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010. The region may experience severe drought in 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 and extreme drought in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2023 and 2024. J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 11(1-2): 199-216 2018

scholarly journals Trends and Extremes of Drought Episodes in Vietnam Sub-Regions during 1980–2017 at Different Timescales

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milica Stojanovic ◽  
Margarida L.R. Liberato ◽  
Rogert Sorí ◽  
Marta Vázquez ◽  
Tan Phan-Van ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Dry Conditions

This study investigated the temporal occurrence of dry conditions in the seven climatic sub-regions of Vietnam during the 1980–2017 period. This assessment was performed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1 to 24 months timescales. Results show that the main periods of extreme drought occurred simultaneously throughout the country in 1992–1993 and 2003–2004, except for 2015–2016, when it was not identified in the southern region. In addition, a slight temporal lag was identified latitudinally (north–south) at the beginning of dry conditions, revealing the largest difference between the northern and southern regions. A positive trend in the time series of both indices (SPEI and SPI) prevailed in all sub-regions, with the SPEI minus SPI difference always being negative, suggesting the importance of temperature and evapotranspiration for this trend. Further detailed analyses were then performed using SPEI at 1-month and 12-months timescales for all climate sub-regions, as well as the main indicators to characterize duration and severity. Results show that the number of drought episodes did not vary much between regions, but they did vary in duration and severity at the annual scale. Moreover, changes in the soil root zone are largely associated with dry and wet conditions not only from season to season, but also in longer accumulation periods and more strongly in the northern regions of Vietnam. Indeed, a study of the most severe drought episodes also revealed the occurrence of negative anomalies of the root-soil moisture in the subsequent four or more months. Dynamic atmospheric conditions associated with the peak of most severe drought episodes show the crucial role of subsidence of dry air in the middle and high atmosphere, which prevents convection in the lower troposphere. Finally, the linkages between drought conditions in Vietnam and large-scale atmospheric and oceanic teleconnection patterns were revealed to be quite different among northern and southern sub-regions. During the positive phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), drought episodes at different timescales were identified in the southern climate sub-regions, while the negative phase was associated with drought conditions in the northern regions.

scholarly journals Analisis Kekeringan Meteorologi dengan Menggunakan Metode Standardized Precipitation (SPI) dan Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) di DAS Lekso Kabupaten Blitar

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 672-685
Author(s):  
Amifta Farah Listya ◽  
◽  
Donny Harisuseno ◽  
Ery Suhartanto ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Reconnaissance Drought Index

Kekeringan dapat didefinisikan pengurangan persediaan air yang bersifat sementara secara signifikan di bawah normal. Bencana kekeringan yang terjadi di Indonesia saat ini mengakibatkan daerah kekurangan suplai air untuk kebutuhan hidup, pertanian, dan kegiatan ekonomi dalam masa yang berkepanjangan. Meninjau dampak yang ditimbulkan, maka diperlukan analisis untuk daerah-daerah yang memiliki potensi terjadinya bencana kekeringan. Terdapat beberapa metode yang dikembangkan untuk menganalisis kekeringan, seperti SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) dan RDI (Reconnaissance Drought Index), sehingga mengetahui tingkat dan karakteristik kekeringan suatu daerah. Setelah melakukan analisis dengan kedua indeks tersebut dilakukan pengambaran peta sebaran kekeringan menggunakan Sistem Informasi Geografi sehingga mempermudah menginterpretasikan daerah yang mengalami potensi kekeringan pada DAS Lekso , serta dapat melakukan upaya-upaya pencegahan dan penanggulangan bahaya bencana kekeringan. hasil penelitian menunjukkan puncak kekeringan metode SPI periode defisit 1 bulan terjadi Mei tahun 2005 dengan wilayah desa yaitu Desa Slumbung, Balerejo, Semen, Tulungrejo dan Soso. Sedangkan pada metode RDI , puncak kekeringan terjadi pada bulan Mei tahun 2005 dengan wilayah desa yang mengalami kekeringan yaitu Desa Slumbung, Balerejo, Semen, Tulungrejo dan Soso. Berdasarkan analisis kesesuaian antara indeks kekeringan dengan data Southern Oscillation Indeks, disimpulkan bahwa perhitungan indeks kekeringan metode RDI memiliki prosentase tingkat kesesuaian lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan metode indeks kekeringan SPI.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought Characteristics Based on Standardized Precipitation Index in Central Java over 1990-2010

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012022
Author(s):  
Misnawati ◽  
R Boer ◽  
F Ramdhani
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Moderate Drought

Abstract Drought is a natural hazard that results from a deficiency of precipitation, leading to low soil moisture and river flows, reduced storage in reservoirs, and less groundwater recharge. This study investigates the spatial variations of drought characteristics (drought event frequency, duration, severity, and intensity). This study using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to analyse the drought characteristics in Central Java during 1990-2010. The rain gauge station data and CHIRPS rainfall data over Central Java is used to calculate the SPI index. The SPI was calculated at multiple timescales (1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24- and 48-month), the run theory was used for identification and characterization of drought events. Analysis of drought characteristics by SPI from 1990 to 2010 shows the longest drought event is four months, the maximum drought severity is 6.06, and the maximum drought intensity is 2.02. El Nino year probability drought occurrence reached 100% in August for moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought category, whereas the probability drought occurrences in the Normal and La Nina year range 0-70% for moderate drought, 0-50% for severe drought category and 0-40% for extreme drought category. The results of this study may help inform researchers and local policymakers to develop strategies for managing drought.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Precipitation Index Inspired by the SPI, PDSI, and MCDI. Part I: Development of the Index

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 1945-1976 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dudley B. Chelton ◽  
Craig M. Risien
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Fading Memory ◽  
Hybrid Index ◽  
Weighted Averages ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Exponentially Weighted

AbstractThe filtering properties of the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and the model calibrated drought index (MCDI) are investigated to determine their relations to past, present, and future precipitation anomalies in regions with a wide diversity of precipitation characteristics. All three indices can be closely approximated by weighted averages of precipitation, but with different weighting. The SPI is well represented by one-sided, uniformly weighted averages; the MCDI is well represented by one-sided, exponentially weighted averages; and the PDSI is well represented by two-sided, exponentially weighted averages with much higher weighting of past and present precipitation than future precipitation. Detailed analyses identify interpretational complications and other undesirable features in the SPI and PDSI. In addition, the PDSI and MCDI are each restricted to single regionally specific “intrinsic” time scales that can significantly differ between the two indices. Inspired by the strengths of the SPI, PDSI, and MCDI, a hybrid index is developed that consists of exponentially weighted averages of past and present precipitation that are implicit in the PDSI and MCDI. The explicit specification of the exponential weighting allows users to control the time scale of the hybrid index to investigate precipitation variability on any time scale of interest. This advantage over the PDSI and MCDI is analogous to the controllability of the time scale of the SPI, but the exponentially fading memory is more physical than the uniform weighting of past and present precipitation in the SPI.

A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 1696-1718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano ◽  
Santiago Beguería ◽  
Juan I. López-Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an increase in drought severity associated with higher water demand as a result of evapotranspiration. Relative to the sc-PDSI, the SPEI has the advantage of being multiscalar, which is crucial for drought analysis and monitoring.

scholarly journals A Non-Stationary and Probabilistic Approach for Drought Characterization Using Trivariate and Pairwise Copula Construction (PCC) Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumyashree Dixit ◽  
K V Jayakumar
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Copula Model ◽  
Reconnaissance Drought Index ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Recurrence Intervals

Abstract Under the variable climatic conditions, the conventional Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) are inadequate for predicting extreme drought characteristics. So in the present study, two indices namely, Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Index (NSPI) and Non-stationary Reconnaissance Drought Index (NRDI) are developed by fitting non-stationary gamma (for precipitation series) and lognormal (for initial values,δ0) distributions. The Generalized Additive Model in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework, with time varying location parameters considering the external covariates, is used to fit the non-stationary distributions. This includes various large scale climate indices namely Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as external covariates for the non-stationary drought assessment. The performances of stationary and non-stationary models are compared based on the Akaika Information Criterion (AIC). Additionally, the drought characteristics are evaluated using Run theory analysis for both stationary and non-stationary drought indices. The study also concentrated on the trivariate copula as well as the Pairwise Copula Construction (PCC) models to estimate the drought recurrence intervals. The comparison of two copula models revealed that the PCC model performed better than the trivariate Student’s t copula model. The recurrence intervals arrived at for the drought events are different for trivariate copula model and PCC model. The area taken for the study is the Upper and Lower sub basins of the Godavari River basin. This study shows that non-stationary drought indices will be helpful in the accurate estimate of the drought characteristics under the changing climatic scenario.

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