scholarly journals Studi Analisa Kekeringan Metode Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dan Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) di DAS Kemuning Kabupaten Sampang

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 535-548
Author(s):  
Alfian Firdaus ◽  
◽  
Donny Harisuseno ◽  
Ery Suhartanto ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Distance Weighting ◽  
Inverse Distance ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Kekeringan ialah bencana alam yang terjadi secara perlahan dan berdampak buruk untuk kelangsungan hidup penduduk Kabupaten Sampang. Mengingat hal tersebut, perlu dilakukan analisa indeks kekeringan serta pemetaan sebarannya sebagai upaya mitigasi bencana kekeringan. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat keparahan kekeringan dengan metode Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dan Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), serta kesesuaiannya dengan data Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) yang mampu mempresentasikan kejadian El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Setelah itu, Indeks kekeringan yang lebih sesuai dengan pola SOI dipetakan dengan metode Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) untuk mengetahui sebaran kekeringan. Metode SPI menghasilkan indeks kekeringan terparah di bulan April 2004 sebesar -3,651 pada periode defisit 1 bulanan. Metode PDSI menghasilkan indeks kekeringan terparah di bulan September 2001 sebesar - 20,628. Berdasarkan hasil analisa rerata PDSI periode 1998-2017, diketahui bahwa bencana kekeringan umumnya bermula sejak bulan Juli dan berakhir di bulan Oktober, sedangkan puncak kekeringan terjadi pada bulan September. Metode PDSI juga memiliki kesesuaian sebesar 60% terhadap nilai SOI berdasarkan penggambaran grafik surplus dan defisit indeks rerata tahunan, lebih baik daripada metode SPI yang hanya bernilai 53%. Penggambaran peta sebaran kekeringan berdasarkan indeks kekeringan PDSI menunjukkan bahwa Kecamatan Sampang, Torjun, dan Camplong perlu diprioritaskan dalam upaya mitigasi bencana kekeringan di masa mendatang karena memiliki potensi bencana kekeringan lebih besar jika dibandingan kecamatan lainnya.

scholarly journals A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 783-798
Author(s):  
Sarir Ahmad ◽  
Liangjun Zhu ◽  
Sumaira Yasmeen ◽  
Yuandong Zhang ◽  
Zongshan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Cedrus Deodara ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract. The rate of global warming has led to persistent drought. It is considered to be the preliminary factor affecting socioeconomic development under the background of the dynamic forecasting of the water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semiarid Hindu Kush range are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537–2017. We reconstructed the March–August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the past 424 years, going back to 1593 CE. Our reconstruction featured nine dry periods (1593–1598, 1602–1608, 1631–1645, 1647–1660, 1756–1765, 1785–1800, 1870–1878, 1917–1923, and 1981–1995) and eight wet periods (1663–1675, 1687–1708, 1771–1773, 1806–1814, 1844–1852, 1932–1935, 1965–1969, and 1990–1999). This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in West Asia, thereby confirming its reliability. The multi-taper method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1–2.4, 3.3, 6.0, 16.8, and 34.0–38.0 years. The drought patterns could be linked to the large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of the Hindu Kush mountain range in northern Pakistan.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KEKERINGAN DI KABUPATEN SRAGEN DENGAN METODE PALMER, THORNTHWAITE, DAN STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-124
Author(s):  
Safrudin Nor Aripbilah ◽  
Heri Suprapto
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Suitable Method ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Dry Conditions

El Nino and La Nina in Indonesia are one of the reasons that caused climate changes, which has possibility of drought and flood disasters. Sragen Regency wherethe dry season occurs, drought happened meanwhile other areas experience floods and landslides. A study on drought needs to be carried out so as to reduce the risk of losses due to the drought hazard. This study is to determine the drought index in Sragen Regency based on several methods and the correlation of each methods and its suitability to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall. Drought was analyzed using several methods such as Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Thornthwaite-Matter, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) then correlated with SOI to determine the most suitable method for SOI. The variables are applied in this method are rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration. The results showed that the drought potential of the Palmer method is only in Near Normal conditions, which is 1%, Severe drought conditions are 29% for the Thornthwaite-Matter method, and Extreme Dry conditions only reach 1,11% for the SPI method. The PDSI and SPI methods are inversely proportional to the Thornthwaite-Matter method and the most suitable method for SOI values or rainfall is the SPI method. These three methods can be identified the potential for drought with only a few variables so that they could be applied if they only have those data.Keywords: Drought, PDSI, Thornthwaite-Matter, SPI, SOI

scholarly journals Decadal Oscillation in the Predictability of Palmer Drought Severity Index in California

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazzareno Diodato ◽  
Lelys Bravo De Guenni ◽  
Mariangel Garcia ◽  
Gianni Bellocchi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
Resources Planning ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Severity of drought in California (U.S.) varies from year-to-year and is highly influenced by precipitation in winter months, causing billion-dollar events in single drought years. Improved understanding of the variability of drought on decadal and longer timescales is essential to support regional water resources planning and management. This paper presents a soft-computing approach to forecast the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in California. A time-series of yearly data covering more than two centuries (1801–2014) was used for the design of ensemble projections to understand and quantify the uncertainty associated with interannual-to-interdecadal predictability. With a predictable structure elaborated by exponential smoothing, the projections indicate for the horizon 2015–2054 a weak increase of drought, followed by almost the same pace as in previous decades, presenting remarkable wavelike variations with durations of more than one year. Results were compared with a linear transfer function model approach where Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation indices were both used as input time series. The forecasted pattern shows that variations attributed to such internal climate modes may not provide more reliable predictions than the one provided by purely internal variability of drought persistence cycles, as present in the PDSI time series.

EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ON NEW MEXICO PECAN PRODUCTION, PRICE, AND CASH RECEIPTS

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950006
Author(s):  
JEE W. HWANG ◽  
OKMYUNG BIN
Keyword(s):  
New Mexico ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
High Moisture ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Severity Index

This study estimates the effects of changes in climatic conditions on local pecan production, price, and cash receipts in New Mexico, USA, for the period from 1964 to 2014. Our primary measures for estimating the effects are drought indices: the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the Standardized Precipitation Index. Our results indicate that precipitation is important to pecan yields. Consistent with previous studies, we find the effects of moisture deficits to be more pronounced compared to conditions of high moisture levels. The gains from moderate to extreme wet conditions on cash receipts are estimated to be as high as [Formula: see text]% while the losses from moderate to severe droughts are as high as [Formula: see text]%. Applying these estimates to cash receipts during the years when an actual wet spell and a drought that took place in New Mexico, the values of these effects are [Formula: see text]$12.6 million and [Formula: see text]$59.7 million, respectively.

scholarly journals A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1117-1130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
Taotao Qian
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Global Land ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract A monthly dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1870 to 2002 is derived using historical precipitation and temperature data for global land areas on a 2.5° grid. Over Illinois, Mongolia, and parts of China and the former Soviet Union, where soil moisture data are available, the PDSI is significantly correlated (r = 0.5 to 0.7) with observed soil moisture content within the top 1-m depth during warm-season months. The strongest correlation is in late summer and autumn, and the weakest correlation is in spring, when snowmelt plays an important role. Basin-averaged annual PDSI covary closely (r = 0.6 to 0.8) with streamflow for seven of world's largest rivers and several smaller rivers examined. The results suggest that the PDSI is a good proxy of both surface moisture conditions and streamflow. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature and an El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced mode of mostly interannual variations as the two leading patterns. The global very dry areas, defined as PDSI &lt; −3.0, have more than doubled since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an ENSO-induced precipitation decrease and a subsequent expansion primarily due to surface warming, while global very wet areas (PDSI &gt; +3.0) declined slightly during the 1980s. Together, the global land areas in either very dry or very wet conditions have increased from ∼20% to 38% since 1972, with surface warming as the primary cause after the mid-1980s. These results provide observational evidence for the increasing risk of droughts as anthropogenic global warming progresses and produces both increased temperatures and increased drying.

scholarly journals Analysis of wet and dry season by using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over Java Island

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sinta Berliana S. ◽  
Indah Susanti ◽  
Bambang Siswanto ◽  
Amalia Nurlatifah ◽  
Hidayatul Latifah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Spatial and temporal characteristics of wildfires in Mississippi, USA

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Grala ◽  
William H. Cooke
Keyword(s):  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
The State ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Temporal Characteristics ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Characteristics ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Forests constitute a large percentage of the total land area in Mississippi and are a vital element of the state economy. Although wildfire occurrences have been considerably reduced since the 1920s, there are still ~4000 wildfires each year in Mississippi burning over 24 000 ha (60 000 acres). This study focusses on recent history and various characteristics of Mississippi wildfires to provide better understanding of spatial and temporal characteristics of wildfires in the state. Geographic information systems and Mississippi Forestry Commission wildfire occurrence data were used to examine relationships between climatic and anthropogenic factors, the incidence, burned area, wildfire cause, and socioeconomic factors. The analysis indicated that wildfires are more frequent in southern Mississippi, in counties covered mostly by pine forest, and are most prominent in the winter–spring season. Proximity to roads and cities were two anthropogenic factors that had the most statistically significant correlation with wildfire occurrence and size. In addition, the validity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index as a measure of fire activity was tested for climatic districts in Mississippi. Analysis indicated that drought influences fire numbers and size during summer and fall (autumn). The strongest relationship between the Palmer Drought Severity Index and burned area was found for the southern climatic districts for the summer–fall season.

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