scholarly journals Determination of Optimal Smoothing Constants for Exponential Smoothing Method & Holt’s Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-59
Author(s):  
M Babul Hasan ◽  
Md Nayan Dhali
Keyword(s):  
Real Life ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Optimal Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

This paper concentrates on choosing the appropriate smoothing constants for Exponential Smoothing method and Holt’s method. These two methods are very important quantitative techniques in forecasting. The accuracy of forecasting of these techniques depends on Exponential smoothing constants. So, choosing an appropriate value of Exponential smoothing constants is very crucial to minimize the error in forecasting. In this paper, we have showed how to choose optimal smoothing constants of these techniques for a particular problem. We have demonstrated the techniques by presenting a real life example and calculating corresponding forecast value of these two techniques for the optimal smoothing constants. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 65(1): 55-59, 2017 (January)

scholarly journals Determination of Optimal Smoothing Constants for Holt - Winter’s Multiplicative Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-104
Author(s):  
Md Nayan Dhali ◽  
Nandita Barman ◽  
M Babul Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Seasonal Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Optimal Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

There are many trade time series parade having seasonality. This paper ponders on taking the appropriate smoothing constants of seasonal time series data using Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing method in demand forecasting of toy production in a company. It is a quantitative technique in forecasting. This forecasting method is used three constants that assign weights to current demands and previous forecasts to decide on a new forecast. We have demonstrated the techniques how to choose these constants by presenting a real life example and calculated corresponding forecast value of this technique for the optimal smoothing constants. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 67(2): 99-104, 2019 (July)

scholarly journals TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: FORECASTING PERBANDINGAN PENUMPANG KERETA API DAN PESAWAT TERBANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 277
Author(s):  
Khoirin Azaro ◽  
Nur Indah Riwajanti ◽  
Anik Kusmintarti
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Efficient Planning ◽  
Exponential Method ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Airline Company

This research aims to predict the number of train and airplane passengers in 2020. Forecasting of train and airplane passengers is interest to analyze and estimate consumer demand to help the train or airline company prepare effective and efficient planning. This type of research is descriptive quantitative and uses data taken from the Indonesian Statistic Agency (BPS). Data were analyzed using Exponential smoothing Method. Train and airplane passenger data shows trend and seasonal patterns so that the exponential method used is Triple Exponential smoothing. The results of the study show that train passengers in 2020 are increase. While forecast results related to aircraft passengers in 2020 also tend to increase.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Groundwater Tax Revenue Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 23006
Author(s):  
Dyna Marisa Khairina ◽  
Aqib Muaddam ◽  
Septya Maharani ◽  
Heliza Rahmania
Keyword(s):  
Reference Value ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
The Government ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

Setting the target of groundwater tax revenues for the next year is an important thing for Kutai Kartanegara Regional Office of Revenue to maximize the regional income and accelerate regional development. Process of setting the target of groundwater tax revenue for the next year still using estimation only and not using a mathematical calculation method that can generate target reference value. If the realization of groundwater tax revenue is not approaching the target, the implementation of development in the Government of Kutai Kartanegara can be disrupted. The mathematical method commonly used to predict revenue value is the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method, which uses alpha constant value which is randomly selected for the calculation process. Forecasting of groundwater tax revenue for 2018 using groundwater tax revenue data from 2013 to 2017. Single Exponential Smoothing method using alpha constant value consists of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The forecasting error value of each alpha value is calculated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The best result is forecasting using alpha value 0.1 with MAPE error value was 45.868 and the best forecasting value of groundwater tax for 2018 is Rp 443.904.600,7192.

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