exponential method
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Author(s):  
D. Jena ◽  
S. Mishra

Background: Odisha started a programme to revive millets in 2017. Keeping this in the background, this paper examines growth of production, area and yield and decomposition of production of millets in Odisha in the last six decades by using triennium ending data, TE1962-63 to TE2019-20. Methods: Boyce’s kinked exponential method has been used to estimate growth for production, area and yield. Production was decomposed to area, yield and interaction effects. Millets as a crop group is compared with other foodgrain groups and then analysis was carried out for four specific millet crops - ragi, jowar, bajra and small millets. Result: In Odisha, the 1960s and 1970s indicate an increasing trend in production of and area under millets. There is a reversal of these trends since 1980s. The decline started first for small millets in the 1980s and subsequently since the 1990s for the three major millets - bajra, jowar and ragi. Decomposition of millets production indicates that the decline since 1980s is largely on account of area effect, but also because of yield effect in the 1990s and 2010s.


Author(s):  
Khairawati Khairawati ◽  
Wahyu Fuadi ◽  
Rizki Ramadhansyah ◽  
Dedi Fariadi

Governments, organizations, and citizens have taken an interest in gold price fluctuations. Gold price forecasting that is accurate may effectively capture price shift tendencies and reduce the effects of gold market volatility. However, due to the multi-factor and nonlinear nature of the gold market. The triple exponential smoothing strategy is used in this study to predict the rise in a value over time since it can replicate trends and seasonal patterns. according to the gold price swings pattern and seasonal components at the same time To calculate system accuracy, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error is employed (MAPE). With alpha 0.15 and beta 0.85 as parameter values, the triple exponential smoothing (TES) approach achieves an accuracy rate of 86.93 percent and a MAPE of 12.49 percent in this study.


Author(s):  
J. A. Putritamara ◽  

The threat on health sector has massive impacts, and one of them is on business internal management as the main factor of producers to consider design of their products. During pandemic, honey is categorized as food supplement. In a certain phase, when the demand upon honey is high, the price tends to be unstable due to an imbalance between supply and demand. Complexities of consumer during pandemics effect on food security system. Unpreparedness of the producers in facing the phenomenon of panic buying and stockpile causes scarcity. Objective of the research was forecasting the demand of honey following the second pandemic wave and supported SMEs to create adaptive strategy to face scarcity. Method of the research used secondary data and survey in the field, which was ended by FGD to decide strategy of the producer to minimize scarcity. Data analysis used MSE (Mean Squared Error) with exponential smoothing. Results of the research showed that the method of alpha exponential 5% has minimum error, which forecast that in December 2021, the demand of propolis honey may reduce after the 2nd wave of Covid in Indonesia and approach to normal forecasting system. The accuracy with exponential method is higher and may facilitate the producers to provide products when fear contagion and panic buying take place. Contribution of analysis result toward strategy of the producers is providing estimation that maximum amount of availability increases no more than 2 times of the real demand of the consumers when panic buying occurs. The most needed strategy is setting the timeline in the projection of consumer journey. This alternative is relevant to fear contagion phenomenon because it contributes to socio-psychology of the consumers in deciding to buy supplement of honey product. Novelty of this research is examining the frequency wave of product purchase intensity of the consumer journey with Covid-19 phenomenon.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-99
Author(s):  
Dini W Dari ◽  
Sri Rahmadhani ◽  
Dini Junita

One type of coastal plant in the mangrove forest is the pedada (Sonneratia sp.). This fruit has high nutritional value and has the potential to be processed into food products. This fruit is still rarely used because of its sour taste. One form of food processed from pedada fruit is pedada juice drink. The purpose of this study was to describe the acceptance of the parameters of color, aroma, texture, taste, and overall acceptance in the form of selecting the best formulation, which was analyzed using the exponential method of pedada fruit juice drinks. A descriptive analysis within the experimental design was applied in this research. There were 5 samples in this study, namely A1 positive control (200 g, 70% sucrose sugar), A2 negative control (200 g pedada, 0% stevia sugar), A3 (200 g pedada, 9% stevia sugar), A4 (pedada 200 g, 18% stevia sugar), and A5 (200 g pedada, 36% stevia sugar). The acceptance test used the hedonic method with 40 consumer panelists aged 17-35 years. This research was conducted in May-August 2020. The manufacture of pedada fruit juice drinks and acceptance testing were carried out at home. The results showed that the A4 sample of 200 g of pedada fruit with the addition of 18% stevia sugar obtained the highest score on the acceptability of pedada fruit juice drinks and overall acceptance. The average results of each color, aroma, texture, and taste acceptability parameter were 3.9, 3.9, 4.0, and 4.0, respectively. Keywords: Acceptance; fruit juice; pedada; stevia sugar   ABSTRAK Indonesia kaya akan hasil alamnya seperti berbagai jenis hutan yang salah satunya adalah hutan mangrove. Hutan mangrove itu sendiri memiliki berbagai jenis tumbuhan pantai seperti pedada atau Sonneratia sp. Buah ini memiliki nilai gizi yang tinggi dan berpotensi untuk diolah menjadi produk pangan. Buah ini masih jarang digunakan karena rasanya yang asam. Salah satu bentuk pengolahan makanan dari buah pedada adalah minuman sari buah pedada. Adapun tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu untuk mendeskripsikan penerimaan terhadap parameter warna, aroma, tekstur, dan rasa serta penerimaan secara keseluruhan berupa pemilihan formulasi terbaik yang dianalisis menggunakan metode eksponensial minuman sari buah pedada. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian eksperimental dengan desain analisis deskriptif murni. Sampel dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 5 sampel yaitu kontrol positif A1 (200 g, gula sukrosa 70%), kontrol negatif A2 (200 g pedada, gula stevia 0%), A3 (200 g pedada, gula stevia 9%), A4 ( pedada 200 g, gula stevia 18%), A5 (200 g pedada, gula stevia 36%). Uji penerimaan menggunakan metode hedonis dengan 40 panelis konsumen berusia 17-35 tahun. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada bulan Mei-Agustus 2020, pembuatan minuman sari buah pedada dan uji daya terima dilakukan di rumah. Akseptabilitas minuman sari buah pedada dan penerimaan keseluruhan yaitu sampel minuman A4 buah pedada 200 g dengan penambahan gula stevia 18%, diperoleh skor rata-rata tertinggi (4,0) dengan hasil rata-rata masing-masing parameter akseptabilitas warna 3.9, aroma 3.9, tekstur 4.0, dan rasa 4.0. Kata Kunci: Daya terima, gula stevia, pedada, sari buah


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 840-851
Author(s):  
Nurul Azhar ◽  
◽  
Roni Kastaman ◽  
Anas Bunyamin

The agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors and also the processing industry sectors in Sumedang Regency contributed the highest GDRP value in 2014-2018, so that Sumedang Regency has a potential in agro-industrial sector. This research aims to determined the priority of superior agro-industrial products and public assessment of superior agro-industrial products that have been determined in Sumedang Regency. This research used the Comparison of Exponential Method (MPE) and ANOVA analysis. The data analysis tools were Microsoft Excel and IBM SPSS Statistics 24 Software. The results of the MPE analysis showed that the priority of superior agro-industrial products in Sumedang Regency were ground coffee, roasted coffee, Cilembu roasted sweet potatoes, Cilembu sweet potato chips, red bako mole, opak ketan, white bako mole, Sumedang tofu, tempeh chips, and oncom Pasireungit. ANOVA analysis showed that there were differences of the superior agro-industrial products rank, that is Sumedang tofu, Cilembu roasted sweet potato, oncom Pasireungit, white bako mole, Cilembu sweet potato chips, tempeh chips, roasted coffee, ground coffee, red bako mole, and opak ketan.


2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 64-71
Author(s):  
Md Hossain

The aim of this paper was to explore the appropriate deterministic time series model using the latest selection criteria considering the price pattern of onion, garlic and potato products in Bangladesh (January 2000 to December 2016). It appeared from our analysis that the time series data for the prices of potato was first order homogenous stationary but onion and garlic were found to be the second order stationary. Four different forecasting models namely, linear trend model, quadratic trend model, exponential growth model, and S-curve trend model were used to find the best fitted model for the prices of above mentioned products in the Bangladesh. Three accuracy measures such as mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared deviation (MSD) were used for the selection of the best fitted model based on lowest value of forecasting error. Lowest values of these errors indicated a best fitted model. After choosing the best growth model by the latest model selection criteria, prices of selected agricultural commodities were forecasted using the following time-series analysis methods: Simple Exponential Method, Double Exponential Method using the time period from January 2017 to December 2021. The findings of this study would be useful for policy makers, researchers, businessmen as well as producers in order to forecast future prices of these commodities.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Yiming Zhu ◽  
Guowu Wei ◽  
Lei Ren ◽  
Zirong Luo ◽  
Jianzhong Shang

This paper presents a low-cost, efficient, and portable in vivo method for identifying axes of rotation of the proximal interphalangeal and distal interphalangeal joints in an index finger. The approach is associated with the screw displacement representation of rigid body motion. Using the matrix exponential method, a detailed derivation of general spatial displacement of a rigid body in the form of screw displacement including the Rodrigues’ formulae for rotation is presented. Then, based on a gyroscope sensor, a test framework for determining axes of rotation of finger joints is established, and experiments on finding the directions of joint axes of the PIP and DIP joints are conducted. The results obtained highly agree with those presented in literature through traditional but complex methods.


2021 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. 06047
Author(s):  
Zack Taylor ◽  
Benjamin Collins ◽  
Ivan Maldonado

Matrix exponential methods have long been utilized for isotopic depletion in nuclear fuel calculations. In this paper we discuss the development of such methods in addition to species transport for liquid fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs). Conventional nuclear reactors work with fixed fuel assemblies in which fission products and fissile material do not transport throughout the core. Liquid fueled molten salt reactors work in a much different way, allowing for material to transport throughout the primary reactor loop. Because of this, fission product transport must be taken into account. The set of partial differential equations that apply are discretized into systems of first order ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The exact solution to the set of ODEs is herein being estimated using the matrix exponential method known as the Chebychev Rational Approximation Method (CRAM).


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