Evaluating uncertainty in climate change impacts on crop productivity in the Iberian Peninsula

In this paper, we assess the economy-wide impact of Climate Change (CC) on agriculture and food security in 20 Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) countries. Specifically, we focus on the following three channels through which CC may affect agricultural and non-agricultural production: (i) agricultural yields; (ii) labor productivity in agriculture, and; (iii) economy-wide labor productivity. We implement the analysis using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Model (IEEM) and databases for 20 LAC available through the OPEN IEEM Platform. Our analysis identifies those countries most affected according to key indicators including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), international commerce, sectoral output, poverty, and emissions. Most countries experience negative impacts on GDP, with the exception of the major soybean producing countries, namely, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. We find that CC-induced crop productivity and labor productivity changes affect countries differently. The combined impact, however, indicates that Belize, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Paraguay would fare the worst. Early identification of these hardest hit countries can enable policy makers pre-empting these effects and beginning the design of adaptation strategies early on. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, only Argentina, Chile and Uruguay would experience small increases in emissions.

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Upscaling modelled crop yields to regional scale: A case study using DSSAT for spring wheat on the Canadian prairies

Canadian Journal of Soil Science ◽

10.4141/cjss-2014-076 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 95 (1) ◽

pp. 49-61 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Ted Huffman ◽

Budong Qian ◽

Reinder De Jong ◽

Jiangui Liu ◽

Hong Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spring Wheat ◽

Input Data ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Canadian Prairies ◽

Crop Models

Huffman, T., Qian, B., De Jong, R., Liu, J., Wang, H., McConkey, B., Brierley, T. and Yang, J. 2015. Upscaling modelled crop yields to regional scale: A case study using DSSAT for spring wheat on the Canadian prairies. Can. J. Soil Sci. 95: 49–61. Dynamic crop models are often operated at the plot or field scale. Upscaling is necessary when the process-based crop models are used for regional applications, such as forecasting regional crop yields and assessing climate change impacts on regional crop productivity. Dynamic crop models often require detailed input data for climate, soil and crop management; thus, their reliability may decrease at the regional scale as the uncertainty of simulation results might increase due to uncertainties in the input data. In this study, we modelled spring wheat yields at the level of numerous individual soils using the CERES–Wheat model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) and then aggregated the simulated yields from individual soils to regions where crop yields were reported. A comparison between the aggregated and the reported yields was performed to examine the potential of using dynamic crop models with individual soils in a region for the simulation of regional crop yields. The regionally aggregated simulated yields demonstrated reasonable agreement with the reported data, with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 and a root-mean-square error of 266 kg ha−1 (i.e., 15% of the average yield) over 40 regions on the Canadian prairies. Our conclusion is that aggregating simulated crop yields on individual soils with a crop model can be reliable for the estimation of regional crop yields. This demonstrated its potential as a useful approach for using crop models to assess climate change impacts on regional crop productivity.

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Changing Trends in Cultivation Practices and Adoption of Climate Adaptive Farming in Eastern Nepal

Sustainable Agriculture Research ◽

10.5539/sar.v7n3p52 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 52 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Bed Dahal ◽

Nani Raut ◽

Smriti Gurung ◽

Chhatra Sharma ◽

Rabindra Kayastha ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Household Survey ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Planting Dates ◽

Ecological Zones ◽

Average Production ◽

Average Annual Temperature ◽

Significant Difference

Climate change impacts are likely to affect the agricultural production leading to further food insecurity. In this context, the trend of cereal production with climate variables was studied in order to understand the linkages between climate change and crop productivity. The study was conducted in three districts of Sagarmatha zone, namely Solukhumbu (mountain region), Okhaldhunga (hill region) and Saptari (Terai region) representing three ecological zones in Nepal. A household survey (295 households), focus group discussions and key informant interviews were used to collect data on the history of the cultivation systems, varieties of crop grown, trends on crop yield, and adaptation to climate change. Results showed farmers’ introduction of high yielding varieties of crops and vegetables due to economic benefit, while traditional varieties are no longer cultivated. The infestation of pest attack is increasingly seen since two decades, while few pests were reported to be disappeared. Although majority of farmers in Saptari and Okhaldhunga districts used pesticides as per the prescribed doses, pesticide use is still random in Solukhumbu district. The multiple comparisons of means showed that there is a significant difference in the average production of rice and maize since 30 years until recently (p<0.05) in these three districts. The average production of rice, maize and wheat increased with decreasing average annual temperature and rainfall in Saptari district since 30 years. In contrast, in Okhaldhunga and Solukhumbu districts, the average production of three cereal crops increased with increasing average annual temperature and rainfall. With the late arrival of the monsoon, farmers have adopted coping strategies particularly for rice cultivation through occasional shift in crop planting dates and selection of shorter duration crop varieties that can be harvested early.

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Climate change impacts on the vegetation carbon cycle of the Iberian Peninsula-Intercomparison of CMIP5 results

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences ◽

10.1002/2014jg002755 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 120 (4) ◽

pp. 641-660 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Sara Aparício ◽

Nuno Carvalhais ◽

Júlia Seixas

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Cycle ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Vegetation Carbon

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Understanding Climate Change Impacts on Crop Productivity and Water Balance

10.1016/c2015-0-05656-8 ◽

2018 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Crop Productivity

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Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity and income of commercial maize farms in northeast South Africa

Food Security ◽

10.1007/s12571-020-01023-0 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 659-678 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Davide Cammarano ◽

Roberto O. Valdivia ◽

Yacob G. Beletse ◽

Wiltrud Durand ◽

Olivier Crespo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South Africa ◽

Integrated Assessment ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Crop Productivity

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Food Security and Climate Change

10.4018/978-1-6684-3686-8.ch003 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 44-63

Author(s):

Mohamed Ait El Mokhtar ◽

Mohamed Anli ◽

Raja Ben Laouane ◽

Abderrahim Boutasknit ◽

Hanane Boutaj ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Security ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Food Systems ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Global Pattern ◽

Efficient Management ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

The Stability

Climate change may potentially disrupt progress toward a world without hunger. Today, a clear and consistent global pattern is perceptible of the different impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have repercussions on food security. Consequently, the stability of the whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of its unpredictable variations. Indeed, agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2°C predictions augmentation for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for poverty and for food security. The climate change impacts seem to be clear in areas currently affected by hunger and undernutrition, which will heighten food insecurity in these parts of the world. Therefore, adapting food systems both to increase food security and to prevent future negative impacts from climate change will require attention to more than just agricultural production. The evidence sustains the need for thoughtful investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward an efficient management of climate change influences on food security.

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