The Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War and COVID-19 Pandemic on China’s Changing Role in the Global Value Chain

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war and ensuing high-tech conflicts are regarded as Taiwan's most crucial opportunity to slow down its progressively increasing economic dependence on China. The impact of the U.S.–China trade tensions on Taiwan are important to analyze because of Taiwan's relatively unique political and economic relationships with the United States and China, especially since the latter views Taiwan as its “breakaway province.” The regression results indicate that Taiwan's outward investment to China is significantly affected by Taiwan's lagged investment and exports to China, and the gap in the economic growth rates between Taiwan and China. Policy implications are provided for Taiwan to alleviate its economic dependency on the Chinese market and the negative impact from the U.S.-China trade war.

Download Full-text

The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on Global Trade

International Trade Policies in the Era of Globalization - Advances in Finance, Accounting, and Economics ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-9566-3.ch003 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 56-70 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ahu Coşkun Özer

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Global Trade ◽

China Trade ◽

Trade War ◽

The Impact ◽

Trade Wars ◽

Day By Day ◽

The U.S

If one country attacks another country's trade with taxes and quotas, it is defined as a trade war. It is aimed to protect the domestic market from competition. The U.S.-China trade war begun on March 1, 2018, and was centered on the customs duty of 25% for the imported steel and 10% for the imported aluminum. The protectionist measures against each other in both countries have increased day by day. However, the impact of these protectionist measures on global trade is not yet known. In this chapter, the effect of the U.S.-China trade war on global trade is analyzed. For this reason, the export data of the U.S. to China and the global export data yearly is compared. According to the results of the linear regression analysis, if the value of the goods export of the U.S. to China increase 1 unit, the value of global export of the goods increases to 58 units. While the trade wars decreased the goods export from the U.S. to China, it has decreased global goods exports too. In 2018, developments in global commodity exports and the U.S. goods exports to China were observed in the same direction.

Download Full-text

Impacts of the U.S.–China Trade War on ASEAN: Case of Thailand

Asian Economic Papers ◽

10.1162/asep_a_00737 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 18 (3) ◽

pp. 166-188

Author(s):

Bhanupong Nidhiprabha

Keyword(s):

Global Economy ◽

Commodity Prices ◽

The United States ◽

Chinese Economy ◽

Vector Autoregressive ◽

Trade Dispute ◽

China Trade ◽

Trade War ◽

The Impact ◽

The U.S

With nearly a year of trade dispute between the United States and China, it has become apparent that the global economy will slow down, and this will have a direct impact on world trade. We adopt a vector autoregressive model to examine the impact of the U.S.–China trade war on the Thai economy. The results indicate that Thailand's output and exports to key markets are adversely affected by the escalating trade dispute. The slowdown in the Chinese economy will also put further downward pressure on world commodity prices, which in turn will reduce Thailand's exports.

Download Full-text