scholarly journals Exploring and Predicting the Individual, Combined, and Synergistic Impact of Land-Use Change and Climate Change on Streamflow, Sediment, and Total Phosphorus Loads

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Xie ◽  
Hua Chen ◽  
Yunfeng Qiu ◽  
Jong-Suk Kim ◽  
Sun-Kwon Yoon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Total Phosphorus ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Annual Streamflow ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Land Use Maps

The present study predicts and assesses the individual, combined, and synergistic effect of land-use change and climate change on streamflow, sediment, and total phosphorus (TP) loads under the present and future scenarios by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). To predict the impacts of climate and land-use change on streamflow, sediment, and TP loads, there are 46 scenarios composed of historical climate, baseline period climate, eight climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) of two representative emission pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), after downscaled and bias-corrected, two observed land-use maps (LULC 1995, LULC 2015) and the projected two future land-use maps (LU2055 and LU 2075) with the help of CA-Markov model to be fed into SWAT. The central tendency of streamflow, sediment, and TP loads under future scenarios is represented using the annual average. The intra-/inter-annual variation of streamflow, sediment, and TP loads simulated by SWAT is also analyzed using the coefficient of variation. The results show that future land-use change has a negligible impact on annual streamflow, sediment, TP loads, and intra-annual and inter-annual variation. Climate change is likely to amplify the annual streamflow and sediment and reduce the annual TP loads, which is also expected to reduce its inter-/intra-annual variation of TP loads compared with the baseline period (2000–2019). The combined impact of land-use and climate change on streamflow, sediment, and TP loads is greater than the sum of individual impacts for climate change and land-use change, especially for TP loads. Moreover, the synergistic impact caused by the interaction of climate and land use varies with variables and is more significant for TP loads. Thus, it is necessary to consider the combined climate and land-use change scenarios in future climate change studies due to the non-negligible synergistic impact, especially for TP loads. This research rare integrates the individual/combined/synergistic impact of land-use and climate change on streamflow, sediment, and TP loads and will help to understand the interaction between climate and land-use and take effective climate change mitigation policy and land-use management policy to mitigate the non-point source pollution in the future.

Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Flood Hazard of the Middle Brahmaputra Reach, India

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 573-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subashisa Dutta ◽  
◽  
Shyamal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Flood Characteristics

Being the highest specific discharge river in the world, the Brahmaputra has a large floodplain area of 700 km in length in its middle reaches falling in the high flood vulnerability category. Floods generated in upland Himalayan catchments are mainly controlled by land use and land cover, storm characteristics, and vegetation dynamics. Floods propagate through a floodplain region consisting of wetlands, paddy agriculture, and wide braided river reaches with natural constraint points (nodals) that make the reaches more vulnerable to flood hazards. In this study, a macroscale distributed hydrological model was used to obtain the flood characteristics of the reaches. A hydrological model with spatially distributed input parameters and meteorological data was simulated at (1 km × 1 km) spatial grids to estimate flood hydrographs at the main river and itsmajor tributaries. Aftermodel validation, “best guess” land use change scenarios were used to estimate potential changes in flood characteristics. Results show that at the middle reaches of the Brahmaputra, peak discharge increases by a maximum of 9% for land use change scenarios. The same model with bias-corrected climatological data from a regional climate model (RCM) simulation (PRECIS) was used to obtain future changes in flood generation and its propagation through the basin in the projected climatological scenario. Changes in flood characteristics with reference to the baseline period show that the average duration of flood waves will increase from 15.2 days in the baseline period (1961-1990) to 19.3 days in the future (2071-2100). Peak discharge will increase by an average of 21% in the future in the projected climate change scenario. After statistics on changes of flood characteristics in the projected climate change scenario (2071-2100) were obtained, a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to obtain flood inundation and velocity distribution on the floodplain. Distribution of velocity and inundation depth was spatially analyzed to obtain flood hazard zones in the projected climate change scenario. Results show that spatial variation in flood hazard zones will be significantly altered in the projected climate change scenario compared to land use/land cover changes.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change: the impact of the global carbon budget

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margarete Redlin ◽  
Thomas Gries
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Carbon Sinks ◽  
Global Carbon Budget ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Global Carbon

AbstractUsing time series data for the period 1959–2015, our empirical analysis examines the simultaneous effects of the individual components of the global carbon budget on temperature. Specifically, we explore the possible effects of carbon emissions caused by fossil fuel combustion, cement production, land-use change emissions, and carbon sinks (here in terms of land sink and ocean sink) on climate change. The simultaneous inclusion of carbon emissions and carbon sinks allows us to look at the coexistent and opposing effects of the individual components of the carbon budget and thus provides a holistic perspective from which to explore the relationship between the global carbon budget and global warming. The results reveal a significant positive effect of carbon emissions on temperature for both fossil fuels emissions and emissions from land-use change, confirming previous results concerning carbon dioxide and temperature. Further, while ocean sink does not seem to have a significant effect, we identify a temperature-decreasing effect for land sink.

scholarly journals Stream Discharge Response to Climate Change and Land Use Change in Tamor Basin, Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 50-62
Author(s):  
K.C. Sumitra ◽  
R.P. Shrestha ◽  
S. Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Barren Land ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Combined Impact ◽  
Annual Discharge

Climate change and land use change are two major issues that need to be addressed for sustainable land and water resource management. These are major factors influencing discharge in monsoon dominated basin. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change and land use change on future discharge of the Tamor basin in Nepal. Result from the study indicated maximum temperature will reach to 40.63°C in 2030s, 40.63°C in 2060s and 45.95°C in 2090s which was 35°C in baseline period (1976-2005). Annual average precipitation was projected to change by 17.64% under RCP 4.5 and by 39.88% under RCP 8.5 till the end of the century as projected by HadGEM2. Since the basin is monsoon dominated, annual discharge was projected to increase by 12.25% under RCP 4.5 and by 32.67% under RCP 8.5 above baseline average till the end of the century. Result using HadGEM2 also shows that peak flows that used to occur in August in baseline period will shift to July except in 2030s under RCP 4.5. However, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 projects decrease in annual precipitation and hence also discharge at the end of the century. Result from both Global Climate Models show that average monthly discharge due to climate change will change positively as well as negatively for both scenarios. Due to combined impact of land use change and climate change, annual discharge was projected to change by 16.53%, 21.28% and -4.39% under RCP 4.5 and by 38.29%, 45.64% and 13.06% under RCP 8.5 till the end of the century for conversion of forest into agricultural land, conversion of forest into barren land and conversion of barren land into forest respectively. Average annual discharge increased the most in case of conversion of forest into barren land and decreased or increased the least in case of conversion of barren land into forest. Unlike annual, seasonal response to combined impact was different. In monsoon and pre monsoon, discharge increased or decreased the least in case of conversion of forest into agricultural land and barren land while increased the least or decreased in case of conversion of barren land into forest. However, in post monsoon and winter, discharge decreased the least or increased the most in case of conversion of barren land into forest but discharge decreased the most or increased the least in case of conversion of forest into agricultural land and barren land.

Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania

2021 ◽  
pp. 111101
Author(s):  
Eduardo Gomes ◽  
Miguel Inácio ◽  
Katažyna Bogdzevič ◽  
Marius Kalinauskas ◽  
Donalda Karnauskaitė ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Habitat Quality ◽  
Future Scenarios

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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