scholarly journals The role of ANS acuity and numeracy for the calibration and the coherence of subjective probability judgments

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Winman ◽  
Peter Juslin ◽  
Marcus Lindskog ◽  
HÃ¥kan Nilsson ◽  
Neda Kerimi
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Judgments

scholarly journals Quantum Bayesianism as the basis of general theory of decision-making

2016 ◽  
Vol 374 (2068) ◽  
pp. 20150245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrei Khrennikov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Probability Theory ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Quantum Probability ◽  
Total Probability ◽  
Interpretation Of Quantum Mechanics ◽  
Classical Probability ◽  
Probability Interpretation ◽  
Formula Of Total Probability

We discuss the subjective probability interpretation of the quantum-like approach to decision making and more generally to cognition. Our aim is to adopt the subjective probability interpretation of quantum mechanics, quantum Bayesianism (QBism), to serve quantum-like modelling and applications of quantum probability outside of physics. We analyse the classical and quantum probabilistic schemes of probability update, learning and decision-making and emphasize the role of Jeffrey conditioning and its quantum generalizations. Classically, this type of conditioning and corresponding probability update is based on the formula of total probability—one the basic laws of classical probability theory.

Making probability judgments of future product failures: The role of mental unpacking

2012 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dipayan Biswas ◽  
L. Robin Keller ◽  
Bidisha Burman
Keyword(s):  
Probability Judgments

Existence as a Psychological Problem: Object Permanence in Adults and Preschool Children

1991 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. V. Subbotskii
Keyword(s):  
Preschool Children ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Psychological Problem ◽  
Object Permanence ◽  
Material Objects ◽  
Postage Stamp ◽  
Children's Beliefs ◽  
As If

Preschool children and adults observed an instance of object discontinuity. Despite the fact that, in conversation, subjects denied the possibility of material objects that lack permanence of existence, most of them dealt with the phenomenon as if magic was involved in the transmogrification of a postage stamp. The subjective probability of belief in object discontinuity was similar to that of belief in the existence of other enigmatic phenomena, such as UFOs, parapsychological phenomena, or the Loch Ness monster. The role of adults' and children's beliefs in discontinuous objects is discussed.

It can't happen to me … or can it? Conditional base rates affect subjective probability judgments.

1999 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 361-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla C. Chandler ◽  
Leilani Greening ◽  
Leslie J. Robison ◽  
Laura Stoppelbein
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Judgments ◽  
Base Rates
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