scholarly journals Causal Discovery in Radiographic Markers of Knee Osteoarthritis and Prediction for Knee Osteoarthritis Severity With Attention–Long Short-Term Memory

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanfei Wang ◽  
Lei You ◽  
Jacqueline Chyr ◽  
Lan Lan ◽  
Weiling Zhao ◽  
...  

The goal of this study is to build a prognostic model to predict the severity of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KOA) and to identify long-term disease progression risk factors for early intervention and treatment. We designed a long short-term memory (LSTM) model with an attention mechanism to predict Kellgren/Lawrence (KL) grade for knee osteoarthritis patients. The attention scores reveal a time-associated impact of different variables on KL grades. We also employed a fast causal inference (FCI) algorithm to estimate the causal relation of key variables, which will aid in clinical interpretability. Based on the clinical information of current visits, we accurately predicted the KL grade of the patient's next visits with 90% accuracy. We found that joint space narrowing was a major contributor to KOA progression. Furthermore, our causal structure model indicated that knee alignments may lead to joint space narrowing, while symptoms (swelling, grinding, catching, and limited mobility) have little impact on KOA progression. This study evaluated a broad spectrum of potential risk factors from clinical data, questionnaires, and radiographic markers that are rarely considered in previous studies. Using our statistical model, providers are able to predict the risk of the future progression of KOA, which will provide a basis for selecting proper interventions, such as proceeding to joint arthroplasty for patients. Our causal model suggests that knee alignment should be considered in the primary treatment and KOA progression was independent of clinical symptoms.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdolreza Nazemi ◽  
Johannes Jakubik ◽  
Andreas Geyer-Schulz ◽  
Frank J. Fabozzi

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 6625
Author(s):  
Yan Su ◽  
Kailiang Weng ◽  
Chuan Lin ◽  
Zeqin Chen

An accurate dam deformation prediction model is vital to a dam safety monitoring system, as it helps assess and manage dam risks. Most traditional dam deformation prediction algorithms ignore the interpretation and evaluation of variables and lack qualitative measures. This paper proposes a data processing framework that uses a long short-term memory (LSTM) model coupled with an attention mechanism to predict the deformation response of a dam structure. First, the random forest (RF) model is introduced to assess the relative importance of impact factors and screen input variables. Secondly, the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) method is used to identify and filter the equipment based abnormal values to reduce the random error in the measurements. Finally, the coupled model is used to focus on important factors in the time dimension in order to obtain more accurate nonlinear prediction results. The results of the case study show that, of all tested methods, the proposed coupled method performed best. In addition, it was found that temperature and water level both have significant impacts on dam deformation and can serve as reliable metrics for dam management.


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