Predicting the Link between Stock Prices and Indices with Machine Learning in R Programming Language

This paper provides an in-depth analysis machine study of the relationship between stock prices and indices through machine learning algorithms. Stock prices are difficult to predict by a single financial formula because there are too many factors that can affect stock prices. With the development of computer science, the author now uses many computer science techniques to make more accurate predictions of stock prices. In this project, the author uses machine learning in R Studio to predict the prices of 35 stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and to study the interaction between the prices of four indices in different countries. Further, it is proposed to find the link between stocks and indices in different countries and then use the predictions to optimize the portfolio of these stocks. To complete this project, the author used Linear Regression, LASSO, Regression Trees, Bagging, Random Forest, and Boosted Trees to perform the analysis. The experimental results show that the MRDL deep multiple regression model proposed in this paper predicts the closing price trend of stocks with a mean square error interval [0.0043, 0.0821]. Additionally, 80% of the proposed DMISV, KDJSV, MACDV, and DKB stock buying and selling strategies have a return greater than 10%. The experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed buying and selling strategies and stock price trend prediction methods in this paper. Compared with other algorithms, the accuracy of the algorithm in this study is increased by 15%, and the efficiency of prediction is increased by 25%.

Prediction of Soybean Price Trend via a Synthesis Method With Multistage Model

Soybean is an important crop, so it is very important to forecast soybean price trend, which can stabilize the market. This paper presents a Synthesis Method with Multistage Model (SMwMM) in order to identify and forecast soybean price trend in China. In the previous work,Toeplitz Inverse Covariance-based Clustering(TICC) has been applied to cluster the prices of four variables. The research have found that there are four patterns in soybean market price, which could be explained by economic theory. This paper consider four patterns as market risk levels. Based on the clustering results, we used Long short-term memory(LSTM) to forecast the prices of these four variables. Multivariate long short-term memory(MLSTM) is then used to classify soybean price to determine level of risk . Experimental results show that :(1)The LSTM model has achieved great fitting effect and high prediction accuracy;(2) The performance of MLSTM-FCN and MALSTM-FCN is better than that of LSTM-FCN and ALSTM-FCN. Furthermore,MALSTM-FCN had the higher accuracy than MLSTM-FCN, which reached 76.39%.

Prediction of Soybean Price Trend via a Synthesis Method with Multistage Model

Soybean is an important crop, so it is very important to forecast soybean price trend, which can stabilize the market. This paper presents a Synthesis Method with Multistage Model (SMwMM) in order to identify and forecast soybean price trend in China. In the previous work,Toeplitz Inverse Covariance-based Clustering(TICC) has been applied to cluster the prices of four variables. The research have found that there are four patterns in soybean market price, which could be explained by economic theory. This paper consider four patterns as market risk levels. Based on the clustering results, we used Long short-term memory(LSTM) to forecast the prices of these four variables. Multivariate long short-term memory(MLSTM) is then used to classify soybean price to determine level of risk . Experimental results show that :(1)The LSTM model has achieved great fitting effect and high prediction accuracy;(2) The performance of MLSTM-FCN and MALSTM-FCN is better than that of LSTM-FCN and ALSTM-FCN. Furthermore,MALSTM-FCN had the higher accuracy than MLSTM-FCN, which reached 76.39%.

Market Entry in Public Procurement

This study analyzed market entry timing based on the procurement data of construction works of the eight Regional Development Bureaus of Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. After reviewing key aspects, a regression analysis was performed on the possible factors leading to entry. We found that when an efficient company enters the market, the number of bids is large and there are many tender participants, regardless of the previous bid rate and predetermined planned price trend.

Investigation of stock price network based on time series analysis and complex network

Complex network is now widely used in a series of disciplines such as biology, physics, mathematics, sociology and so on. In this paper, we construct the stock price trend network based on the knowledge of complex network, and then propose a method based on information entropy to divide the stock network into some communities, that is, a gathering study of stock price trend. We construct time series networks for each stock in Chinese A-share market based on time series network model, and then use these networks to divide the stock market into communities. We find that the average trend of stocks in the same community is the same as the trend of market value weighting, but the average trend of stocks in different communities is quite different and the sequence correlation is low. This conclusion shows that stocks in the same community share the same price trend, while the stock trend in different communities varies. This paper is a successful application of complex network and information entropy in stock trend analysis, which mainly includes two contributions. First, the success of the visibility graph algorithm provides a new perspective for enriching stock price trend modeling. Second, our conclusion proves that the clustering based on information entropy theory is effective, which provides a new method for further research on stock price trend, portfolio construction and stock return prediction.

Stock price prediction based on stock price synchronicity and deep learning

Deep learning technology has been widely used in the financial industry, primarily for improving financial time series prediction based on stock prices. To solve the problem of low fitting and poor accuracy in traditional stock price prediction models, this paper proposes a stock price prediction model based on stock price synchronicity and deep learning methods, which applied the stock price synchronicity theory in stock price trend analysis. This paper first uses the affinity propagation algorithm to build stock clusters, and then, based on convolution neural network (CNN), and feature weight to construct the stock price synchronicity factor. At last, the long short-term memory (LSTM) network with multifactor is built for stock price trend analysis. According to the theory of stock price synchronicity, the affinity propagation algorithm can find the potential related stocks of the target stock. The spatial data analysis ability of the CNN model provides a guarantee for the application in stock price synchronicity factor analysis. The LSTM model can better analyze the information contained in the stock price time series and predict the future price. The experimental results show that, compared with the traditional multilayer neural network model, the LSTM model has better accuracy in the trend prediction of the stock price. Simultaneously, the application of stock price synchronicity effectively improves the performance of the multifactor LSTM network.