scholarly journals The Increased Likelihood in the 21st Century for a Tropical Cyclone to Rapidly Intensify When Crossing a Warm Ocean Feature—A Simple Model’s Prediction

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1285
Author(s):  
Leo Oey

A warm ocean feature (WOF) is a blob of the ocean’s surface where the sea-surface temperature (SST) is anomalously warmer than its adjacent ambient SST. Examples are warm coastal seas in summer, western boundary currents, and warm eddies. Several studies have suggested that a WOF may cause a crossing tropical cyclone (TC) to undergo rapid intensification (RI). However, testing the “WOF-induced RI” hypothesis is difficult due to many other contributing factors that can cause RI. The author develops a simple analytical model with ocean feedback to estimate TC rapid intensity change across a WOF. It shows that WOF-induced RI is unlikely in the present climate when the ambient SST is ≲29.5 °C and the WOF anomaly is ≲+1 °C. This conclusion agrees well with the result of a recent numerical ensemble experiment. However, the simple model also indicates that RI is very sensitive to the WOF anomaly, much more so than the ambient SST. Thus, as coastal seas and western boundary currents are warming more rapidly than the adjacent open oceans, the model suggests a potentially increased likelihood in the 21st century of WOF-induced RIs across coastal seas and western boundary currents. Particularly vulnerable are China’s and Japan’s coasts, where WOF-induced RI events may become more common.

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (10) ◽  
pp. 2294-2307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hristina G. Hristova ◽  
Joseph Pedlosky ◽  
Michael A. Spall

Abstract A linear stability analysis of a meridional boundary current on the beta plane is presented. The boundary current is idealized as a constant-speed meridional jet adjacent to a semi-infinite motionless far field. The far-field region can be situated either on the eastern or the western side of the jet, representing a western or an eastern boundary current, respectively. It is found that when unstable, the meridional boundary current generates temporally growing propagating waves that transport energy away from the locally unstable region toward the neutral far field. This is the so-called radiating instability and is found in both barotropic and two-layer baroclinic configurations. A second but important conclusion concerns the differences in the stability properties of eastern and western boundary currents. An eastern boundary current supports a greater number of radiating modes over a wider range of meridional wavenumbers. It generates waves with amplitude envelopes that decay slowly with distance from the current. The radiating waves tend to have an asymmetrical horizontal structure—they are much longer in the zonal direction than in the meridional, a consequence of which is that unstable eastern boundary currents, unlike western boundary currents, have the potential to act as a source of zonal jets for the interior of the ocean.


2011 ◽  
Vol 116 (C12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mélanie Grenier ◽  
Sophie Cravatte ◽  
Bruno Blanke ◽  
Christophe Menkes ◽  
Ariane Koch-Larrouy ◽  
...  

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (11) ◽  
pp. 4476-4492 ◽  
Author(s):  
George R. Alvey III ◽  
Jonathan Zawislak ◽  
Edward Zipser

Abstract Using a 15-yr (1998–2012) multiplatform dataset of passive microwave satellite data [tropical cyclone–passive microwave (TC-PMW)] for Atlantic and east Pacific storms, this study examines the relative importance of various precipitation properties, specifically convective intensity, symmetry, and area, to the spectrum of intensity changes observed in tropical cyclones. Analyses are presented not only spatially in shear-relative quadrants around the center, but also every 6 h during a 42-h period encompassing 18 h prior to onset of intensification to 24 h after. Compared to those with slower intensification rates, storms with higher intensification rates (including rapid intensification) have more symmetric distributions of precipitation prior to onset of intensification, as well as a greater overall areal coverage of precipitation. The rate of symmetrization prior to, and during, intensification increases with increasing intensity change as rapidly intensifying storms are more symmetric than slowly intensifying storms. While results also clearly show important contributions from strong convection, it is concluded that intensification is more closely related to the evolution of the areal, radial, and symmetric distribution of precipitation that is not necessarily intense.


1999 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilson C. A. da Silveira ◽  
Glenn R. Flierl ◽  
Wendell S. Brown

1996 ◽  
Vol 101 (C3) ◽  
pp. 6295-6312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathryn A. Kelly ◽  
Michael J. Caruso ◽  
Sandipa Singh ◽  
Bo Qiu

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