The Increased Likelihood in the 21st Century for a Tropical Cyclone to Rapidly Intensify When Crossing a Warm Ocean Feature—A Simple Model’s Prediction

A warm ocean feature (WOF) is a blob of the ocean’s surface where the sea-surface temperature (SST) is anomalously warmer than its adjacent ambient SST. Examples are warm coastal seas in summer, western boundary currents, and warm eddies. Several studies have suggested that a WOF may cause a crossing tropical cyclone (TC) to undergo rapid intensification (RI). However, testing the “WOF-induced RI” hypothesis is difficult due to many other contributing factors that can cause RI. The author develops a simple analytical model with ocean feedback to estimate TC rapid intensity change across a WOF. It shows that WOF-induced RI is unlikely in the present climate when the ambient SST is ≲29.5 °C and the WOF anomaly is ≲+1 °C. This conclusion agrees well with the result of a recent numerical ensemble experiment. However, the simple model also indicates that RI is very sensitive to the WOF anomaly, much more so than the ambient SST. Thus, as coastal seas and western boundary currents are warming more rapidly than the adjacent open oceans, the model suggests a potentially increased likelihood in the 21st century of WOF-induced RIs across coastal seas and western boundary currents. Particularly vulnerable are China’s and Japan’s coasts, where WOF-induced RI events may become more common.

On the Importance of High-Resolution in Large-Scale Ocean Models

Eddying global ocean models are now routinely used for ocean prediction, and the value-added of a better representation of the observed ocean variability and western boundary currents at that resolution is currently being evaluated in climate models. This overview article begins with a brief summary of the impact on ocean model biases of resolving eddies in several global ocean-sea ice numerical simulations. Then, a series of North and Equatorial Atlantic configurations are used to show that an increase of the horizontal resolution from eddy-resolving to submesoscale-enabled together with the inclusion of high-resolution bathymetry and tides significantly improve the models’ abilities to represent the observed ocean variability and western boundary currents. However, the computational cost of these simulations is extremely large, and for these simulations to become routine, close collaborations with computer scientists are essential to ensure that numerical codes can take full advantage of the latest computing architecture.

Dynamics of Gap-leaping Western Boundary Currents with Throughflow Forcing

The dynamics of gap-leaping western boundary currents (e.g. the Kuroshio intrusion, the Loop Current) are explored through rotating table experiments and a numerical model designed to replicate the experimental apparatus. Simplified experimental and numerical models of gap-leaping systems are known to exhibit two dominant states (leaping or penetrating into the gap) as the inertia of the current competes with vorticity constraints (in this case the β-effect). These systems are also known to admit multiple states with hysteresis. To advance towards more realistic oceanographic scenarios, recent studies have explored the effects of islands, mesoscale eddies, and variable baroclinic deformation radii on the dynamical system. Here, the effect of throughflow forcing is considered, with particle tracking velocimetry (PTV) used in the lab experiments. Mean transport in or out of the gap is found to significantly shift the hysteresis range as well as change its width. Because of these transformations, changes in throughflow can induce transitions in the gap-leaping system when near a critical state (leaping-to-penetrating/ penetrating-to-leaping). Results from the study are interpreted within a nonlinear dynamical framework and various properties of the system are explored.

Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in northern hemisphere oceans

The northwest basins of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are regions of intense Western Boundary Currents (WBC), the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio. The variability of these poleward currents and their extension in the open ocean is of major importance to the climate system. It is largely dominated by in-phase meridional shifts downstream of the points where they separate from the coast. Tide gauges on the adjacent coastlines have measured the inshore sea level for many decades and provide a unique window on the past of the oceanic circulation. The relationship between coastal sea level and the variability of the western boundary currents has been previously studied in each basin separately but comparison between the two basins is missing. Here we show for each basin, that the inshore sea level upstream the separation points is in sustained agreement with the meridional shifts of the western boundary current extension over the period studied, i.e. the past seven (five) decades in the Atlantic (Pacific). Decomposition of the coastal sea level into principal components allows us to discriminate this variability in the upstream sea level from other sources of variability such as the influence of large meanders in the Pacific. This result suggests that prediction of inshore sea-level changes could be improved by the inclusion of meridional shifts of the western boundary current extensions as predictors. Conversely, long duration tide gauges, such as Key West, Fernandina Beach or Hosojima could be used as proxies for the past meridional shifts of the western boundary current extensions.

North Atlantic Western Boundary Currents Are Intense Dissolved Organic Carbon Streams

In the North Atlantic, there are two main western boundary currents related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC): the Gulf Stream flowing northward and the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) flowing southward. Here we analyze data from the OVIDE section (GO-SHIP A25 Portugal-Greenland 40–60°N) that crosses the DWBC and the northward extension of the Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Current. We show that North Atlantic western boundary currents play a key role in the transport of dissolved organic matter, specifically dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Revisited transports and budgets of DOC with new available data identify the eastern Subpolar North Atlantic (eSPNA) as an important source of locally produced organic matter for the North Atlantic and a key region in the supply of bioavailable DOC to the deep ocean. The East Greenland Current, and its upstream source the East Reykjanes Ridge Current on the eastern flank of the mid-Atlantic ridge, are export pathways of bioavailable DOC toward subtropical latitudes. The fast overturning and subsequent remineralization of DOC produced in the autotrophic eSPNA explains up to 38% of the total oxygen consumption in the deep North Atlantic between the OVIDE section and 24°N. Carbon budgets that do not take into account this organic remineralization process overestimates the natural uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere by one third. The inclusion of DOC transports in regional carbon budgets reconciles the estimates of CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic between model and observations.