scholarly journals Integration of Ensemble GoogLeNet and Modified Deep Residual Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (20) ◽  
pp. 2455
Author(s):  
Aijia Ding ◽  
Tingzhang Liu ◽  
Xue Zou
Keyword(s):  
Feature Extraction ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Generalization Capability ◽  
Extraction Ability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Probabilistic Load ◽  
Electrical Demand ◽  
Public Datasets

Due to the strong volatility of the electrical load and the defect of a time-consuming problem, in addition to overfitting existing in published forecasting methods, short-term electrical demand is difficult to forecast accurately and robustly. Given the excellent capability of weight sharing and feature extraction for convolution, a novel hybrid method based on ensemble GoogLeNet and modified deep residual networks for short-term load forecasting (STLF) is proposed to address these issues. Specifically, an ensemble GoogLeNet with dense block structure is used to strengthen feature extraction ability and generalization capability. Meanwhile, a group normalization technique is used to normalize outputs of the previous layer. Furthermore, a modified deep residual network is introduced to alleviate a vanishing gradient problem in order to improve the forecasting results. The proposed model is also adopted to conduct probabilistic load forecasting with Monte Carlo Dropout. Two acknowledged public datasets are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology. Multiple experiments and comparisons with existing state-of-the-art models show that this method achieves accurate prediction results, strong generalization capability, and satisfactory coverages for different prediction intervals, along with reducing operation times.

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on the Transformer Model

Information ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 516
Author(s):  
Zezheng Zhao ◽  
Chunqiu Xia ◽  
Lian Chi ◽  
Xiaomin Chang ◽  
Wei Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Consumption Data ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Distribution Process ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Transformer Model ◽  
Similar Day

From the perspective of energy providers, accurate short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in the energy generation plan, efficient energy distribution process and electricity price strategy optimisation. However, it is hard to achieve a satisfactory result because the historical data is irregular, non-smooth, non-linear and noisy. To handle these challenges, in this work, we introduce a novel model based on the Transformer network to provide an accurate day-ahead load forecasting service. Our model contains a similar day selection approach involving the LightGBM and k-means algorithms. Compared to the traditional RNN-based model, our proposed model can avoid falling into the local minimum and outperforming the global search. To evaluate the performance of our proposed model, we set up a series of simulation experiments based on the energy consumption data in Australia. The performance of our model has an average MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) of 1.13, where RNN is 4.18, and LSTM is 1.93.

scholarly journals A Two-Stage Short-Term Load Forecasting Method Using Long Short-Term Memory and Multilayer Perceptron

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5873
Author(s):  
Yuhong Xie ◽  
Yuzuru Ueda ◽  
Masakazu Sugiyama
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Multilayer Perceptron ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Load forecasting is an essential task in the operation management of a power system. Electric power companies utilize short-term load forecasting (STLF) technology to make reasonable power generation plans. A forecasting model with low prediction errors helps reduce operating costs and risks for the operators. In recent years, machine learning has become one of the most popular technologies for load forecasting. In this paper, a two-stage STLF model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP), which improves the forecasting accuracy over the entire time horizon, is proposed. In the first stage, a sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) architecture, which can handle a multi-sequence of input to extract more features of historical data than that of single sequence, is used to make multistep predictions. In the second stage, the MLP is used for residual modification by perceiving other information that the LSTM cannot. To construct the model, we collected the electrical load, calendar, and meteorological records of Kanto region in Japan for four years. Unlike other LSTM-based hybrid architectures, the proposed model uses two independent neural networks instead of making the neural network deeper by concatenating a series of LSTM cells and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Therefore, the proposed model is easy to be trained and more interpretable. The seq2seq module performs well in the first few hours of the predictions. The MLP inherits the advantage of the seq2seq module and improves the results by feeding artificially selected features both from historical data and information of the target day. Compared to the LSTM-AM model and single MLP model, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the proposed model decreases from 2.82% and 2.65% to 2%, respectively. The results demonstrate that the MLP helps improve the prediction accuracy of seq2seq module and the proposed model achieves better performance than other popular models. In addition, this paper also reveals the reason why the MLP achieves the improvement.

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting Method based on Empirical Wavelet Decomposition and BLSTM Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yu Zhang ◽  
Stefanie Kuenzel ◽  
Nicolo Colombo ◽  
Chris Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential to the modern power system and smart grids; the utility can better implement demand-side management and operate the power system stable with a reliable forecasting system. The load demand contains a variety of different load components, and different loads operate with different frequencies. Conventional load forecasting models (linear regression (LR), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), deep neural network, etc.) ignore frequency domain and can only use time-domain load demand as inputs. To make full use of both time domain and frequency domain features of the load demand, a hybrid component decomposition and deep neural network load forecasting model is proposed in this paper. The proposed model first filters noises via wavelet-based denoising technique, then decomposes the original load demand into several sublayers to show the frequency features while the time domain information is preserved as well. Then bidirectional LSTM model is trained for each sub-layer independently. To better tunning the hyperparameters, a Bayesian hyperparameter optimization algorithm is adopted in this paper. Three case studies are designed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. From the results, it is found that the proposed model improves RMSE by 66.59% and 84.06%, comparing to other load forecasting models.<br>

scholarly journals Online SARIMA applied for short-term electricity load forecasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quang Dat Nguyen ◽  
Nhat Anh Nguyen ◽  
Ngoc Thang Tran ◽  
Vijender Kumar Solanki ◽  
Rubén González Crespo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Load

Abstract Short-term Load Forecasting (STLF) plays a crucial role in balancing supply and demand of load dispatching operation, ensures stability for the power system. With the advancement of real-time smart sensors in power systems, it is of great significance to develop techniques to handle data streams on-the-fly to improve operational efficiency. In this paper, we propose an online variant of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) to forecast electricity load sequentially. The proposed model is utilized to forecast hourly electricity load of northern Vietnam and achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.57%.

scholarly journals Multi-convolution feature extraction and recurrent neural network dependent model for short-term load forecasting

IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Hui Hwang Goh ◽  
Biliang He ◽  
Hui Liu ◽  
Dongdong Zhang ◽  
Wei Dai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Feature Extraction ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Dependent Model

Feature Extraction via Multiresolution Analysis for Short-Term Load Forecasting

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.J. RochaReis ◽  
A.P. AlvesdaSilva
Keyword(s):  
Feature Extraction ◽  
Multiresolution Analysis ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

scholarly journals Multimodal Feature Extraction and Fusion Deep Neural Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting

IEEE Access ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 185373-185383
Author(s):  
Zhengmin Kong ◽  
Chenggang Zhang ◽  
He Lv ◽  
Feng Xiong ◽  
Zhuolin Fu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Feature Extraction ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on the Fusion of PSRT and QCNN

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Zhisheng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Phase Space Reconstruction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Chaotic Neural Networks ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Hidden Layer ◽  
Hidden Nodes

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) model based on the fusion of Phase Space Reconstruction Theory (PSRT) and Quantum Chaotic Neural Networks (QCNN) was proposed. The quantum computation and chaotic mechanism were integrated into QCNN, which was composed of quantum neurons and chaotic neurons. QCNN has four layers, and they are the input layer, the first hidden layer of quantum hidden nodes, the second hidden layer of chaotic hidden nodes, and the output layer. The theoretical basis of constructing QCNN is Phase Space Reconstruction Theory (PSRT). Through the actual example simulation, the simulation results show that proposed model has good forecasting precision and stability.

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