Abstract
Natural gas is one of the primary energy sources of Bangladesh. Demand of natural gas in Bangladesh increasing day by day in various sectors. But, due to limited resources, energy crisis increasing gradually. This research work deigned to find out the natural gas crisis via forecasting gas demand and production. At the end, it also analyzed the future of CNG and LPG based vehicles in Bangladesh as an alternative of natural gas dependency.
The prediction of gas demand and production has been conducted based on the data from Petrobangla. And the future of CNG and LPG based vehicles were analyzed based on different CNG & LPG conversion company data. Demand forecasting presented three scenarios; “scenario A, scenario B and scenario C” and production forecasting has been displayed as three cases; “case A, case B, case C”. The Comparison of CNG and LPG has been made based on different parameters like conversion cost, calorific fuel value, fuel cost, mileage, risk of explosion of fuel cylinder, carbon emission etc.
The outcomes of gas demand forecasting represented that gas demand is growing in every scenario. The results of production forecasting denoted as existing gas fields production is decreasing gradually. It also indicated, if new reserves would be discovered, then the production will be maximized. On the other hand, CNG conversion rate will be declined due to the shortage of natural gas. In conclusion, the investigation of different parameter of CNG & LPG confirmed, LPG is suitable for cope up with the future crisis. Hence LPG based vehicles need to take place of CNG based vehicles.
Combining Grey Model and Self-Adapting Intelligent Grey Model with Genetic Algorithm and Annual Share Changes in Natural Gas Demand Forecasting