scholarly journals Earthquake-Induced Landslide Risk Assessment: An Example from Sakhalin Island, Russia

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Konovalov ◽  
Yuriy Gensiorovskiy ◽  
Valentina Lobkina ◽  
Alexandra Muzychenko ◽  
Yuliya Stepnova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Sakhalin Island ◽  
Landslide Risk ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Probabilistic Technique ◽  
Landslide Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map ◽  
The Given

Damages caused by earthquake-induced ground effects can be of the order or significantly exceed the expected damages from ground shaking. A new probabilistic technique is considered in this study for earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment. A fully probabilistic technique suggests a multi-stage hazard assessment. These stages include the determination of seismic hazard curves and landslide probabilistic models, a vulnerability assessment, and geotechnical investigations. At each of the stages, the uncertainties should be carefully analyzed. A logic tree technique, which handles all available models and parameters, was used in the study. The method was applied considering child education facilities located at the foot of a natural slope in the south of Sakhalin Island which is known as an active seismic and land sliding area. The significant differences in the ground motion scenario in terms of the 475-year seismic hazard map and the fully probabilistic approach considered suggests that seismic landslide risk could be underestimated or overestimated when using the 475-year seismic hazard map for risk assessment. The given approach follows the rational risk management idea that handles well all possible ground motion scenarios, slope models, and parameters. The authors suggest that the given approach can improve geotechnical studies of slope stability.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Shedlock
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Central America ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Motion Parameter ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Ground Motion Parameter ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map

Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful regional seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The highest seismic hazard values in the region generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Shedlock ◽  
J. G. Tanner
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Motion Parameter ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Ground Motion Parameter ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($ 6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of the Americas depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The largest seismic hazard values in the western hemisphere generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. Although the largest earthquakes ever recorded are the 1960 Chile and 1964 Alaska subduction zone earthquakes, the largest seismic hazard (PGA) value in the Americas is in Southern California (U.S.), along the San Andreas fault.

Treatment of ground-motion predictive relationships for the reference seismic hazard map of Italy

2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Montaldo ◽  
Ezio Faccioli ◽  
Gaetano Zonno ◽  
Aybige Akinci ◽  
Luca Malagnini
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Predictive Relationships ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map

Treatment of Parameter Uncertainty and Variability for a Single Seismic Hazard Map

1993 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernice K. Bender ◽  
David M. Perkins
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
B Value ◽  
Source Zone ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map

The inputs to probabilistic seismic hazard studies (seismic source zones, earthquake rates, attenuation functions, etc.) are uncertain, being based on subjective judgments and interpretations of limited data. In the face of this uncertainty, we consider (a) how one might “reasonably” determine the ground-motion levels to show on a single probabilistic seismic hazard map, and (b) the extent to which uncertainty in the calculated levels can be meaningfully represented on such a map. If the “best guess” estimates of the earthquake rate, the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and the maximum magnitude for a single source zone are regarded as uncorrelated and the uncertainty in each parameter can be regarded as symmetric about the estimated value, then the probabilistic ground-motion levels calculated using these best estimates represent both most likely values and also approximate mean values.

scholarly journals Deaggregation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Construction of Pseudo-Exact Conditional Spectrum for China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Ji ◽  
Ruizhi Wen ◽  
Yefei Ren ◽  
Weiyi Wang ◽  
Lansheng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
National Standard ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Ground Motion Parameter ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map

Abstract For mainland China, the primary obstacle in conditional spectrum (CS) based ground motion selection work is that the corresponding seismic hazard deaggregation results were not released for the China national standard GB 18306- 2015 “Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map”, which refers to the fifth-generation seismic hazard map. Therefore, this study firstly constructed a probabilistic seismic hazard map for mainland China using the three level seismicity source models as applied to produce the fifth-generation seismic hazard map. The derived peak ground acceleration (PGA) values in our seismic hazard map were basically consistent with the fifth-generation seismic hazard map for most of the 34 principal Chinese cities considered. Then, three-dimensional deaggregation scheme was performed for PGA and 5%-damped spectral acceleration (Sa) corresponding to mean return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Based on the magnitude-longitude-latitude deaggregation results of three example cities: Xichang, Kunming, and Xi’an, approximate and pseudo-exact conditional spectrum were established with/without considering multiple casual earthquakes and possible strike directions of the potential source areas. The mean pseudo-exact CS lies between the results of approximate CS using long and short axis GMMs. The conditional standard deviation of pseudo-exact CS is approximately 1.1 to 1.5 times larger than the approximate CS for the periods away from the conditional period. For three example cities, hazard consistency of the spectral accelerations of the ground motion realizations matching target distribution of pseudo-exact CS and geometric mean approximate CS were evaluated and validated. Moreover, for the 34 studied cities, we tabulated the uniform hazard curve and deaggregation results for PGA and Sa values (0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0s) at MRPs of 475 and 2475 years. (https://github.com/JIKUN1990/China-Seismic-Hazard-Deaggregation-34cities)

Seismic Hazard Map for Papua Island

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Lalu Makrup ◽  
Arif Hariyanto ◽  
Setya Winarno
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map

Forestry and landslides: What's acceptable in BC?

2009 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
R H Guthrie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Public Key ◽  
Expert Advice ◽  
Forest Industry ◽  
Landslide Risk ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
The Public ◽  
Landslide Risk Assessment

Landslides are unavoidably linked to forestry operations in coastal BC. A neglected component of landslide risk assessment is the degree to which impacts from landslides may be acceptable. One hundred and thirteen professionals in the BC forest industry, including foresters, biologists, geoscientists and engineers, examined landslide tolerability criteria. Despite differences by sector, there was general agreement that landslides resultant of ignoring expert advice or where an expert was clearly at fault were unacceptable, and penalties were high. In more ambiguous cases, increased consequences resulted in increased scrutiny and it was clear that experts should expect to be held responsible for their decisions by government officiators and the public. Key words: landslide, risk, risk perception, acceptable risk, landslides and forestry

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