OpenForecast v2: Development and Benchmarking of the First National-Scale Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia

Operational national-scale hydrological forecasting systems are widely used in many countries for flood early warning systems and water management. However, this kind of system has never been implemented in Russia. OpenForecast v2—the first national-scale operational runoff forecasting system in Russia—has been developed and deployed to fill this gap. OpenForecast v2 delivers 7 day-ahead streamflow forecasts for 843 gauges across Russia. The verification study has been carried out using 244 gauges for which operational streamflow data were openly available and quality-controlled for the entire verification period (14 March–6 July 2020). The results showed that the developed system provides reliable and skillful runoff forecasts for up to one week. The benchmark testing against climatology and persistence forecasts showed that the system provides skillful predictions for most analyzed basins. OpenForecast v2 is in operational use and is openly available on the Internet.

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Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam using superensembles

10.1101/2020.05.20.20108019 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Felipe J Colon-Gonzalez ◽

Leonardo Soares Bastos ◽

Barbara Hofmann ◽

Alison Hopkin ◽

Quillon Harpham ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Economic Value ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Deterministic Models ◽

Earth Observations ◽

Dengue Transmission ◽

Climate Forecasts ◽

Health Event ◽

Forecasting System

Timely information is key for decision-making. The ability to predict dengue transmission ahead of time would significantly benefit planners and decision-makers. Dengue is climate-sensitive. Monitoring climate variability could provide advance warning about dengue risk. Multiple dengue early warning systems have been proposed. Often, these systems are based on deterministic models that have limitations for quantifying the probability that a public health event may occur. We introduce an operational seasonal dengue forecasting system where Earth observations and seasonal climate forecasts are used to drive a superensemble of probabilistic dengue models to predict dengue risk up to six months ahead. We demonstrate that the system has skill and relative economic value at multiple forecast horizons, seasons, and locations. The superensemble generated, on average, more accurate forecasts than those obtained from the models used to create it. We argue our system provides a useful tool for the development and deployment of targeted vector control interventions, and a more efficient allocation of resources in Vietnam.

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Prevention of Disasters Supported on the Internet of Things and Early Warning Systems

Data Mining and Big Data - Lecture Notes in Computer Science ◽

10.1007/978-3-319-93803-5_34 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 360-370

Author(s):

Jimena Peña Muñoz ◽

Roberto Ferro Escobar

Keyword(s):

Internet Of Things ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

The Internet ◽

Warning Systems ◽

The Internet Of Things

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The CARE Telematics Network for the Surveillance of Influenza in Europe

Methods of Information in Medicine ◽

10.1055/s-0038-1634617 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 34 (05) ◽

pp. 518-522 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

M. Bensadon ◽

A. Strauss ◽

R. Snacken

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Surveillance Networks ◽

Spanish Flu ◽

The 1950S ◽

National Networks ◽

First Time

Abstract:Since the 1950s, national networks for the surveillance of influenza have been progressively implemented in several countries. New epidemiological arguments have triggered changes in order to increase the sensitivity of existent early warning systems and to strengthen the communications between European networks. The WHO project CARE Telematics, which collects clinical and virological data of nine national networks and sends useful information to public health administrations, is presented. From the results of the 1993-94 season, the benefits of the system are discussed. Though other telematics networks in this field already exist, it is the first time that virological data, absolutely essential for characterizing the type of an outbreak, are timely available by other countries. This argument will be decisive in case of occurrence of a new strain of virus (shift), such as the Spanish flu in 1918. Priorities are now to include other existing European surveillance networks.

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