scholarly journals Design Wave Height Parameter Estimation Model Reflecting the Influence of Typhoon Time and Space

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 950
Author(s):  
Guilin Liu ◽  
Pengfei Xu ◽  
Yi Kou ◽  
Fang Wu ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
New Model ◽  
Design Wave Height ◽  
Time Periods

Typhoon storm surge disasters are one of the main restrictive factors of sustainable development in coastal areas. They are one of several important tasks in disaster prevention and reduction in coastal areas and require reasonable and accurate calculations of wave height in typhoon-affected sea areas to predict and resist typhoon storm surge disasters. In this paper, the design wave height estimation method based on the stochastic process and the principle of maximum entropy are theoretically advanced, and it can provide a new idea as well as a new method for the estimation of the return level for marine environmental elements under the influence of extreme weather. The model uses a family of random variables to reflect the influence of a typhoon on wave height at different times and then displays the statistical characteristics of wave height in time and space. At the same time, under the constraints of the given observations, the maximum uncertainty of the unobtainable data is maintained. The new model covers the compound extreme value distribution model that has been widely used and overcomes the subjective interference of the artificially selected distribution function—to a certain extent. Taking the typhoon wave height data of Naozhou Observatory as an example, this paper analyzes the probability of typhoon occurrence frequency at different times and the characteristics of typhoon intensity in different time periods. We then calculate the wave height return level and compare it with traditional calculation models. The calculation results show that the new model takes into account the time factor and the interaction between adjacent time periods. Furthermore, it reduces the subjective human interference, so the calculated results of the typhoon’s influence on wave height return level are more stable and accurate.

scholarly journals Elevation Calculation of Bottom Deck Based on Stochastic Process and Compound Distribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 697
Author(s):  
Guilin Liu ◽  
Chi Nie ◽  
Yi Kou ◽  
Yi Yang ◽  
Daniel Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Measured Data ◽  
American Petroleum Institute ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Offshore Platforms ◽  
Type Distribution ◽  
New Model ◽  
Compound Distribution

In the design of offshore platforms, the height of the bottom deck directly affects the safety and engineering cost of the entire platform. It is a very important scale parameter in platform planning. The American Petroleum Institute (API) specification shows that the key to determining the height of the bottom deck lies in the wave height and calculation of the return level of the water increase. Based on the perspective of stochastic processes, this paper constructs a new distribution function model for joint parameter estimation of the marine environment. The new model uses a family of random variables to show the statistical characteristics of design wave height and water increase in both time and space, with extreme value expanded EED-I type distribution used as marginal distribution. The new model performs statistical analysis on the measured hydrological data of the Naozhou Station during the flood period from 1990 to 2016. The Gumbel–Copula structure function is used as the connection function, and the compound distribution model of the wave height and the water increase is used to obtain the joint return level of the wave height and the water increase and through which the bottom deck height of the area is calculated. The results show that the stochastic compound distribution improves the issue of the high design value caused by simple superposition of univariate return levels. The EED-I type distribution still has good stability under the condition of less measured data. Thus, under the premise of ensuring the safety of the offshore platform, less measured data can still be used to calculate the height of the bottom deck more accurately.

scholarly journals Investigation typhoon induced storm surge and high wave in Vietnam using coupled Delft3d-FLOW – WAVE models combined with weather research forecast (WRF) output wind field

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. first
Author(s):  
LE TUAN ANH ◽  
DANG HOANG ANH ◽  
MAI THI YEN LINH ◽  
NGUYEN DANH THAO
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
High Wave ◽  
Wave Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Weather Research

Introduction: Typhoon-induced disasters including storm surge and high wave are obvious threats to coastal areas in Vietnam. Thus, many researchers have paid their attention to this issue. The approaching methods are varied, including statistical methods and also numerical methods. This study suggests the coupled models Delft3D-FLOW and WAVE, using the meteorological output data from the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) for investigating the typhoon induced disasters in the coastal areas in Viet Nam. Method: WRF is run in multiple domains with different grid resolutions simultaneously and there is an interaction between them to reproduce the wind field during the typhoon events. Delft3D-FLOW is coupled with Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) through a dynamic interaction, in which the FLOW module considers the received radiation stresses calculated by the wave module. On the other side, the updated water depth including the contribution of the storm surge will be used by the WAVE module. Both Delft3D-FLOW and Delft3D-WAVE models used wind fields from the WRF simulation output as the meteorological input data. The total surge level includes the storm surge, wave-induced setup and the tidal level. Results: The case of extreme weather event Typhoon Kaemi (2000) was used to validate the wind field and the wave height. The calibration process of the the storm surge level was based on the observed data during Typhoon Xangsane (2006), while Typhoon Durian (2006) were used to validate the coupled models. The comparisons show the good agreement between simulated results and observed data, especially in terms of the peak water level and highest significant wave height, which mainly governed by the typhoon wind field. The simulated results reveal that the surge height durring Typhoon Durrian period along its path was ranged from 1.2 to more than 1.4m, which can be considered to pose the greatest risk to low-lying coastal areas of the Mekong Delta. Conclusion: The suggested coupled models can be used to investigate the impact of typhoon induced disasters.

A new model for calculating the design wave height in typhoon-affected sea areas

2013 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-ping Wang ◽  
Baiyu Chen ◽  
Jian-fang Zhang ◽  
Zhengshou Chen
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
New Model ◽  
Design Wave Height

Estimation of design wave height using empirical simulation technique

2013 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 39-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyung-Duck Suh ◽  
Munki Kim ◽  
Jeho Chun
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Simulation Technique ◽  
Design Wave Height

Flood risk influenced by the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall under climate change for low-lying coastal areas

2021 ◽  
Vol 764 ◽  
pp. 144439
Author(s):  
Shih-Chun Hsiao ◽  
Wen-Son Chiang ◽  
Jiun-Huei Jang ◽  
Han-Lun Wu ◽  
Wei-Shiun Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Compound Effect

scholarly journals Wave Height Distributions and Rogue Waves in the Eastern Mediterranean

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 660
Author(s):  
Sagi Knobler ◽  
Daniel Bar ◽  
Rotem Cohen ◽  
Dan Liberzon
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Rogue Waves ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Order Model ◽  
Deep Seawater ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Storm Characteristics ◽  
Buoy Data

There is a lack of scientific knowledge about the physical sea characteristics of the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. The current work offers a comprehensive view of wave fields in southern Israel waters covering a period between January 2017 and June 2018. The analyzed data were collected by a meteorological buoy providing wind and waves parameters. As expected for this area, the strongest storm events occurred throughout October–April. In this paper, we analyze the buoy data following two main objectives—identifying the most appropriate statistical distribution model and examining wave data in search of rogue wave presence. The objectives were accomplished by comparing a number of models suitable for deep seawater waves. The Tayfun—Fedele 3rd order model showed the best agreement with the tail of the empirical wave heights distribution. Examination of different statistical thresholds for the identification of rogue waves resulted in the detection of 99 unique waves, all of relatively low height, except for one wave that reached 12.2 m in height which was detected during a powerful January 2018 storm. Characteristics of the detected rogue waves were examined, revealing the majority of them presenting crest to trough symmetry. This finding calls for a reevaluation of the crest amplitude being equal to or above 1.25 the significant wave height threshold which assumes rogue waves carry most of their energy in the crest.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Extreme Distribution Model of Economic Losses Due to Outbreaks Using the POT Method with Newton Raphson Iteration

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-45
Author(s):  
Riza Adrian Ibrahim ◽  
Sukono Sukono ◽  
Riaman Riaman
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Method ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Extreme Distribution ◽  
Newton Raphson ◽  
The Government ◽  
Raphson Iteration

Extreme distribution is the distribution of a random variable that focuses on determining the probability of small values in the tail areaof the distribution. This distribution is widely used in various fields, one of which is reinsurance. An outbreak catastrophe is non-natural disaster that can pose an extreme risk of economic loss to a country that is exposed to it. To anticipate this risk, the government of a country can insure it to a reinsurance company which is then linkedto bonds in the capital market so that new securities are issued, namely outbreakcatastrophe bonds. In pricing, knowledge of the extreme distribution of economic losses due to outbreak catastrophe is indispensable. Therefore, this study aims to determine the extreme distribution model of economic losses due to outbreak catastrophe whose models will be determined by the approaches and methods of Extreme Value Theory and Peaks Over Threshold, respectively. The threshold value parameter of the model will be estimated by Kurtosis Method, while the other parameters will be estimated with Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method based on Newton-Raphson Iteration. The result of the research obtained is the resulting model of extreme value distribution of economic losses due to outbreak catastrophe that can be used by reinsurance companies as a tool in determining the value of risk in the outbreak catastrophe bonds.

scholarly journals Wave transformation around breakwater (case study: tourism harbour, Eastern Bali, Indonesia)

2021 ◽  
Vol 894 (1) ◽  
pp. 012028
Author(s):  
M N Arsyad ◽  
O Setyandito ◽  
L M Kesuma ◽  
H D Armono ◽  
M Anda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Wave Transformation ◽  
Wave Condition ◽  
The Past ◽  
Design Wave Height ◽  
Coastal Modeling ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Modeling Software

Abstract An essential aspect in the sustainable design of breakwater is the determination of the design wave condition. It is predicted by utilizing severe wave conditions of the past 10 to 20 years. The tourism harbor at eastern Bali, Indonesia, is located where extreme wave condition occurs. Therefore, this research studies the wave height before and after constructing a breakwater in the harbor area. The wave height was simulated using numerical modeling. The methodology was performed by using the coastal modeling software of the SMS-CGWAVE model. The result shows the highest design wave height value of 3.9 m in the direction from the southeast. The design breakwater can reduce wave height up to 0.9 m or a 75.5% reduction. Further study is needed to simulate the extension of breakwater length to meet the criterion design of wave height in the harbor basin.

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