scholarly journals Applying Benford’s Law to Monitor Death Registration Data: A Management Tool for the COVID-19 Pandemic

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Francisco Gabriel Morillas-Jurado ◽  
María Caballer-Tarazona ◽  
Vicent Caballer-Tarazona
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
National Level ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Death Registration ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Real Dimension ◽  
The Real ◽  
Registration Data ◽  
Benford's Law

In Spain, the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the various regions of the country differently. The availability of reliable and up-to-date information has proved to be fundamental for the management of this health crisis. However, especially during the first wave of the pandemic (February–August 2020), the disparity in the recording criteria and in the timing of providing these figures to the central government created controversy and confusion regarding the real dimension of the pandemic. It is therefore necessary to have objective and homogeneous criteria at the national level to guide health managers in the correct recording and evaluation of the magnitude of the pandemic. Within this context, we propose using Benford’s Law as an auditing tool to monitor the reliability of the number of daily COVID-related deaths to identify possible deviations from the expected trend.

scholarly journals Human costs of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the major epicentres in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Ghislandi ◽  
Raya Muttarak ◽  
Markus Sauerberg ◽  
Benedetta Scotti
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
National Level ◽  
Death Registration ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Registration Data ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Human Costs ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 can be miscounted due to under-reporting and inaccurate death registration. Mortality is often reported at the national level, which can result in the underestimation of the true scale of the impact of the pandemic since outbreaks tend to be localised. This study exploits all-cause daily death registration data provided by the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) from 1 January to 31 October to estimate the excess mortality and the corresponding changes in life expectancy during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on the five most severely hit provinces in Italy (Bergamo, Brescia, Cremona, Lodi and Piacenza), we calculate the excess mortality in 2020 compared to the average mortality of the years 2015 to 2019. Moreover, we estimate the excess mortality in the first quadrimester of 2020, and the annual life expectancy at birth. The estimated excess deaths show that during this period, mortality was significantly higher than the official mortality statistics for COVID-19. According to our estimates for the first quadrimester, life expectancy in the five provinces declined by 5.4 to 8.1 for men and by 4.1 to 5.8 years for women. In addition, we find that annual life expectancy decreased by 2.4 to 4.1 years for men and by 1.9 to 2.8 years for women compared to the 2015–2019 average. Thus, we conclude that the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on population health in the hardest hit areas in Italy.

PP469 From Theory To Practice: Which Value Framework Is Applied For Onco-Hematology Therapies In Italy? A 5-year Retrospective Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (S1) ◽  
pp. 37-37
Author(s):  
Americo Cicchetti ◽  
Rossella Di Bidino ◽  
Entela Xoxi ◽  
Irene Luccarini ◽  
Alessia Brigido
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
National Level ◽  
Pharmaceutical Products ◽  
European Medicines Agency ◽  
The Real ◽  
R Process ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionDifferent value frameworks (VFs) have been proposed in order to translate available evidence on risk-benefit profiles of new treatments into Pricing & Reimbursement (P&R) decisions. However limited evidence is available on the impact of their implementation. It's relevant to distinguish among VFs proposed by scientific societies and providers, which usually are applicable to all treatments, and VFs elaborated by regulatory agencies and health technology assessment (HTA), which focused on specific therapeutic areas. Such heterogeneity in VFs has significant implications in terms of value dimension considered and criteria adopted to define or support a price decision.MethodsA literature research was conducted to identify already proposed or adopted VF for onco-hematology treatments. Both scientific and grey literature were investigated. Then, an ad hoc data collection was conducted for multiple myeloma; breast, prostate and urothelial cancer; and Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) therapies. Pharmaceutical products authorized by European Medicines Agency from January 2014 till December 2019 were identified. Primary sources of data were European Public Assessment Reports and P&R decision taken by the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) till September 2019.ResultsThe analysis allowed to define a taxonomy to distinguish categories of VF relevant to onco-hematological treatments. We identified the “real-world” VF that emerged given past P&R decisions taken at the Italian level. Data was collected both for clinical and economical outcomes/indicators, as well as decisions taken on innovativeness of therapies. Relevant differences emerge between the real world value framework and the one that should be applied given the normative framework of the Italian Health System.ConclusionsThe value framework that emerged from the analysis addressed issues of specific aspects of onco-hematological treatments which emerged during an ad hoc analysis conducted on treatment authorized in the last 5 years. The perspective adopted to elaborate the VF was the one of an HTA agency responsible for P&R decisions at a national level. Furthermore, comparing a real-world value framework with the one based on the general criteria defined by the national legislation, our analysis allowed identification of the most critical point of the current national P&R process in terms ofsustainability of current and future therapies as advance therapies and agnostic-tumor therapies.

scholarly journals Reliability of Financial Information from the Perspective of Benford’s Law

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 557
Author(s):  
Ionel Jianu ◽  
Iulia Jianu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Financial Information ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Professional Judgment ◽  
Reporting Standards ◽  
Financial Reporting Standards ◽  
Benford's Law ◽  
Before And After

This study investigates the conformity to Benford’s Law of the information disclosed in financial statements. Using the first digit test of Benford’s Law, the study analyses the reliability of financial information provided by listed companies on an emerging capital market before and after the implementation of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The results of the study confirm the increase of reliability on the information disclosed in the financial statements after IFRS implementation. The study contributes to the existing literature by bringing new insights into the types of financial information that do not comply with Benford’s Law such as the amounts determined by estimates or by applying professional judgment.

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