scholarly journals Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Lancang River Basin Based on the Budyko Hypothesis

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3501
Author(s):  
Hao Liu ◽  
Zheng Wang ◽  
Guangxing Ji ◽  
Yanlin Yue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Lancang River ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
The Lancang River Basin ◽  
The Impact

Based on the Lancang River Basin (LRB) hydro–meteorological data from 1961 to 2015, this study uses the Mann–Kendall trend test and mutation test to analyze the trend of hydro–meteorological variables, as well as which year the runoff series changes, respectively. We applied the Choudhury–Yang equation to calculate the climate and catchment landscape elasticity of runoff. Then we quantified the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff change. The results show that: (1) the mean annual precipitation (P) in LRB showed an insignificant decline, the annual potential evapotranspiration (E0) showed a significant increase, and the runoff depth (R) showed a significant decrease; (2) the abrupt change of the R occurred in 2005. Both the climate and catchment landscape elasticity of runoff increased, which means that the hydrological process of LRB became more sensitive to climate changes and human activities; (3) compared with the base period (1961–2004), the reduction of P was the leading cause of runoff reduction, with a contribution of 45.64%. The contribution of E0 and human activities to runoff changes are 13.91% and 40.45%, respectively.

Inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation and attribution analysis of annual runoff of Lancang river basin based on LWHM-LUCC model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Xie ◽  
Tao Yu ◽  
Linqian Wu ◽  
Ziyi Wu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Lancang River ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Attribution Analysis ◽  
Frequency Calculation ◽  
The Lancang River Basin

<p>In the context of global climate change and intensive human activities, the runoff process in the Lancang River Basin has been greatly changed. This study proposed a lumped watershed hydrological model considering land use/cover change (LWHM-LUCC) for the frequency calculation and attribution analysis of annual runoff of Lancang River Basin from physical causes aspect. We first detected the variability of precipitation, evaporation, and runoff time series at annual time scale of the Lancang River Basin during 1961–2014 through the hydrological variation diagnosis system. Then, the inconsistent runoff frequency calculation method based on LWHM-LUCC model were applied to analyze the annual runoff frequency distribution in past, current and future period, respectively. Besides, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities on runoff variation were quantatively determined based on LWHM-LUCC model and scenarios simulation. The result showed that there was an abrupt increase of evaporation in 2002, and an abrupt decrease of runoff in 2004. From the distant past period, near past period, to the current period, the design runoff in the Lancang River Basin showed a declined trend, whereas the runoff in the current and future periods remained basically unchanged, and the difference between current and distant past period was much larger than that between current and near past period. The contribution rates of precipitation, evaporation, land use and other human activities to runoff variation were around 38%, 31%, 0% and 31%, respectively. This indicated climate change has greater impact on runoff variation than human activity in the Lancang River Basin.</p>

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang ◽  
Wang ◽  
Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Recurrence Period ◽  
The Impact

This study conducted quantitative diagnosis on the impact of climate change and human activities on drought risk. Taking the Kuye river basin (KRB) in China as the research area, we used variation point diagnosis, simulation of precipitation and runoff, drought risk assessment, and attribution quantification. The results show that: (1) the annual runoff sequence of KRB changed significantly after 1979, which was consistent with the introduction of large-scale coal mining; (2) under the same drought recurrence period, the drought duration and severity in the human activity stage were significantly worse than in the natural and simulation stages, indicating that human activities changed the drought risk in this area; and (3) human activities had little impact on drought severity in the short duration and low recurrence period, but had a greater impact in the long duration and high recurrence period. These results provide scientific guidance for the management, prevention, and resistance of drought; and guarantee sustainable economic and social development in the KRB.

scholarly journals Quantitative Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activity on Runoff Change in the Dongjiang River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliang Zhou ◽  
Chengguang Lai ◽  
Zhaoli Wang ◽  
Xiaohong Chen ◽  
Zhaoyang Zeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Quantitative Evaluation ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Effects of climate change on terrestrial water storage and basin discharge in the lancang River Basin

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 100896
Author(s):  
Sadia Bibi ◽  
Qinghai Song ◽  
Yiping Zhang ◽  
Yuntong Liu ◽  
Muhammad Aqeel Kamran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Lancang River ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
The Lancang River Basin

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidong Zeng ◽  
Chesheng Zhan ◽  
Fubao Sun ◽  
Hong Du ◽  
Feiyu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Integrated Method ◽  
Climate Elasticity ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Changes

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model) and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods) are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Variation of the Intensive Phosphate Mined Huangbaihe River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2039
Author(s):  
Huijuan Bo ◽  
Xiaohua Dong ◽  
Zhonghua Li ◽  
Xiaonong Hu ◽  
Gebrehiwet Reta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Natural State ◽  
Phosphate Mining ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Change Period ◽  
The Impact

Natural hydrological processes have been changed under the combined influences of climate change and intensive human activities in the Huangbaihe River Basin, where large-scale phosphate mining has been taking place. Therefore, evaluating the impact of climate change and intensive human activities on runoff variation and detecting the main driving factor leading to the variation are important for more efficient water resource management and more sustainable development of the regional economy. Despite numerous studies having been performed on this topic, little research focused on the impact of mining on runoff variation. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and accumulative anomaly methods were applied to identifying basic trends and change points of the hydro-meteorological elements over the period from 1978 to 2016. Then, the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Slope Changing Ratio of Accumulative Quantity (SCRAQ) were both used to quantify the contributions of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff variation. In this step, the runoff data were restored to their natural state before the construction of Xuanmiaoguan (XMG) dam. Due to the lack of locally observed evapotranspiration data, Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model and an empirical equation applied to obtain the evapotranspiration data. The results revealed that the change points are in 1985 and 2006. Therefore, the total period was divided into three periods, that is, the baseline period Ta (1978–1984), change period Tb (1985–2005) and change period Tc (2006–2016). Compared with the baseline period Ta, climate change dominates the runoff variation in the period Tb and is responsible for 60.5 and 74.4% of runoff variation, while human activities contribute the most to runoff variation for the period Tc (79.3 and 86.1%). Furthermore, an analysis of the underlying mechanism of underground phosphate mining indicates that mining can affect overland flow and baseflow simultaneously. This study can provide some information in determining the contributions of climate change and human activities in intensive phosphate mined basins and areas lack of evapotranspiration data.

scholarly journals Attribution of Runoff Reduction in the Juma River Basin to Climate Variation, Direct Human Intervention, and Land Use Change

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingyi Bu ◽  
Chunxia Lu ◽  
Jun Niu ◽  
Yanchun Gao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Climate Variation ◽  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
Human Intervention ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
The Impact

Juma River, located in the Midwest of the Haihe River basin, is an important source of water supply to Beijing and Hebei. Over the past decades, the region has been seriously threatened by water shortages owing to complex climate conditions and intensive human activities. This study investigated the runoff characteristics of the Juma River by employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and stochastic methods for the period of 1961–2013. Accordingly, the runoff changes attributed to the climate variation and different types of anthropogenic activities (land use change and direct human intervention) were estimated, respectively, in conjunction with the improved quantitative response analysis. The results indicated that the annual runoff of both Zijingguan station and Zhangfang station has decreased significantly at the 0.001 significance level, and reduction rates were −0.054 billion m3 and −0.10 billion m3, respectively. Moreover, the persistency of this trend has been shown for decades (Hurst coefficient > 0.50). The SWAT model was calibrated and validated during the baseline period of 1961–1978. Significant rising temperatures and declining precipitation were the main reasons for runoff reduction, especially during the two periods of 1998–2002 and 2003–2008. Additionally, water withdrawal of Wuyi canal aggravated the runoff reduction and water scarcity conditions in the region. After 2009, the effects of direct human intervention exceeded those of climate change. However, the impact of land use change can be seen as negligible during the study period. Climate change had a greater effect on runoff reduction in winter, while the impact of human activities was more dramatic in summer.

scholarly journals Quantifying Contributions of Climate Change and Local Human Activities to Runoff Decline in the Second Songhua River Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2659
Author(s):  
Bao Shanshan ◽  
Yang Wei ◽  
Wang Xiaojun ◽  
Li Hongyan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Songhua River ◽  
Songhua River Basin ◽  
The Past ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
The Second Songhua River

In the past several decades, climate change and human activities have influenced hydrological processes, and potentially caused more frequent and extensive flood and drought risks. Therefore, identification and quantification of the driving factors of runoff variation have become a hot research area. This paper used the trend analysis method to show that runoff had a significant downward trend during the past 60 years in the Second Songhua River Basin (SSRB) of Northeast China. The upper, middle, and lower streams of five hydrological stations were selected to analyze the breakpoint of the annual runoff in the past 60 years, and the breakpoints were used to divide the entire study period into two sub-periods (1956–1974 and 1975–2015). Using the water–energy coupling balance method based on Choudhury–Yang equation, the climatic and catchment landscape elasticity coefficient of the annual runoff change was estimated, and attribution analysis of the runoff change was carried out for the Fengman Reservoir and Fuyu stations in SSRB. The change in potential evapotranspiration has a weak effect on the runoff, and change in precipitation and catchment landscape were the leading factors affecting runoff. Impacts of climate change and land cover change were accountable for the runoff decrease by 80% and 11% (Fengman), 17% and 206% (Fuyu) on average, respectively; runoff was more sensitive to climate change in Fengman, and was more sensitive to catchment landscape change in Fuyu. In Fengman, the population was small, owing to the comparatively inhospitable natural conditions, and so human activities were low. However, in Fuyu, human activities were more intensive, and so had more impact on runoff for the Lower Second Songhua River compared to the Upper Second Songhua River.

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