If Loud Aliens Explain Human Earliness, Quiet Aliens Are Also Rare

If life on Earth had to achieve n “hard steps“ to reach humanity's level, then the chance of this event rose as time to the nth power. Integrating this over habitable star formation and planet lifetime distributions predicts >99% of advanced life appears after today, unless n < 3 and max planet duration <50 Gyr. That is, we seem early. We offer this explanation: a deadline is set by loud aliens who are born according to a hard steps power law, expand at a common rate, change their volume appearances, and prevent advanced life like us from appearing in their volumes. Quiet aliens, in contrast, are much harder to see. We fit this three-parameter model of loud aliens to data: (1) birth power from the number of hard steps seen in Earth’s history, (2) birth constant by assuming a inform distribution over our rank among loud alien birth dates, and (3) expansion speed from our not seeing alien volumes in our sky. We estimate that loud alien civilizations now control 40%–50% of universe volume, each will later control ∼ 105–3 × 107 galaxies, and we could meet them in ∼200 Myr–2 Gyr. If loud aliens arise from quiet ones, a depressingly low transition chance (<∼10−4 ) is required to expect that even one other quiet alien civilization has ever been active in our galaxy. Which seems to be bad news for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. But perhaps alien volume appearances are subtle, and their expansion speed lower, in which case we predict many long circular arcs to find in our sky.

Resolution of the M-shape Pattern of the Outdoor Air Temperature Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for Metropolitan Areas in a Country: Using Long-term Monthly Level Data of Taipei City as Empirical Evidence

In Taiwan, the heat island effect is the most significant in Taipei City. Thus this research provides a causal explanation for why urban outdoor air temperature has an M-shape EKC pattern for metropolitan areas in a country. Results show that the growth rate change in CO2 concentration can induce changes to the periods of the La Nino effect and EI Nino effect, causing high fluctuations in rain accumulation. The amount of rain then alters A-type evaporation, and so the evaporation amount is the top factor for the diffusion of a city’s heat. This fluctuation plays as a cooling and heating source for the V region of the M shape in the outdoor air temperature EKC pattern. In our previous studies, the growth rate change in CO2 concentration correlates to the energy structure. Therefore, a heat sinking model has been proposed to explain the accumulation of heat in a city, in which a proportion process for the solar irradiation source from buildings and remodeling engineering from a public housing policy and the private sector can play as a heating source of the two peaks of the M shape and present long-term linear growth in the outdoor air temperature EKC pattern.

The Impact of Trading Information Sets on Exchange Rate Change and Volatility: Evidence From Taiwan

This study explores the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) as the currency of a small island economy, uses the trading information sets from overseas and the market itself to examine the impacts on the adjustment of daily spot exchange rates. The daily USD/TWD is explained by the trading information sets, contain which the daily trading activities and the ratio of the real body on the daily candlestick chart of technical analysis on the Taipei Foreign Exchange Market, as well as the US-dollar index return to explain the USD/TWD spot rate change. The results showed that some of the USD/TWD changes were related to the US-dollar index return on overseas, and that the effect of the US-dollar index return was not limited to the adjustment rate from the previous closing rate to the opening rate on the day, which would affect the adjustment spot exchange rate in the intraday opening-to-closing period. There is a significant positive relationship between the real body ratio of the daily candlestick chart and the return of the exchange rate, supporting the real body ratio related to the change of the exchange rate. The study model can greatly improve the model interpretation ability of the change of exchange rate by about 50% after considering the trading activity factors. Finally, this study found that the volatility has a positive effect on Mondays and the 2008-financial crisis, and based on the shock that the news of depreciation was higher than the news of appreciation, so there exist asymmetry volatility.

Comparison of Seasonal Flow Rate Change Indices Downstream of Three Types of Dams in Southern Quebec (Canada)

The objective of this study is to use two hydrological indices (coefficients of variation and immoderation) to analyze the impacts of dam management methods on seasonal daily flow rate change downstream of three dams: Manouane (diversion-type management method), Ouareau (natural-type management method) and Matawin (inversion-type management method). The results show that this change is far greater downstream of the Matawin dam (characterized by an inversion-type management method) than downstream of the two other dams. Moreover, downstream of the Matawin dam, this daily flow rate change increases significantly over time, while decreasing downstream of the two other dams and in natural rivers. Lastly, this change is better correlated with climate downstream of the Ouareau dam than downstream of the two other dams. It is positively correlated with winter and spring temperatures as well as summer and fall rain. Contrary commonly accepted hypothesis, this study shows that the impacts of dams generally result in an increase of the seasonal flow rate change in Quebec.

Unit Sales and Price Effects of Preannounced Consumption Tax Reforms: Micro-level Evidence from European VAT

We study the effects of consumption tax changes on prices and unit sales of durables utilizing micro-level product data. The results show that tax rate changes are fully shifted into prices. An anticipated tax rate change causes a temporary shift in unit sales shortly before implementation, which is more than offset by adjustments upon and after implementation. If the tax rate increases by 1 percentage point, unit sales rise by 2.5 percent on average in the last month before implementation. The permanent effect is a drop in sales by 2 percent below their original level, implying relatively strong intertemporal substitution effects. (JEL H25, H31, E62, H24, D12, E21)

Dealing with the Heterogeneous Presentations of Freezing of Gait: How Reliable are the Freezing Index and Heart Rate for Freezing Detection?

Background: Freezing of gait (FOG) is an unpredictable gait arrest that hampers the lives of 40% of people with Parkinson’s disease. Because the symptom is heterogeneous in phenotypical presentation (it can present as trembling, shuffling, or akinesia) and manifests during various circumstances (it can be triggered by e.g. turning, passing doors, and dual-tasking), it is particularly difficult to detect with motion sensors. The freezing index (FI) is one of the most frequently used accelerometer-based methods for FOG detection. However, it might not adequately distinguish FOG from voluntary stops, certainly for the akinetic type of FOG. Interestingly, a previous study showed that heart rate signals could distinguish FOG from stopping and turning movements. This study aimed to investigate for which phenotypes and evoking circumstances the FI and heart rate might provide reliable signals for FOG detection.Methods: Sixteen people with Parkinson’s disease and daily freezing completed a gait trajectory designed to provoke FOG including turns, narrow passages, starting, and stopping, with and without a cognitive or motor dual-task. We compared the FI and heart rate of 406 FOG events to baseline levels, and to stopping and normal gait events (i.e. turns and narrow passages without FOG) using mixed-effects models. We specifically evaluated the influence of different types of FOG (trembling vs akinesia) and triggering situations (turning vs narrow passages; no dual-task vs cognitive dual-task vs motor dual-task) on both outcome measures. Results: The FI increased significantly for trembling FOG, but not for akinetic FOG. Furthermore, the index increased similarly during stopping and was therefore not significantly different from FOG. In contrast, heart rate change during FOG was for all types and during all triggering situations statistically different from stopping, but not from normal gait events. Conclusion: The FI has issues to distinguish FOG from voluntary stopping, especially of the akinetic type. In contrast, the clear distinction in heart rate change between FOG and voluntary stops, which was independent of the heterogeneous presentation of FOG, might provide a solution for this issue. Therefore, we suggest that combining a heart rate monitor with a motion sensor may be promising for future FOG detection.

Efficacy and Safety of Different Intravenous Glucocorticoid Regimens in the Treatment of Graves’ Ophthalmopathy: A Meta-Analysis

Purpose. The intravenous glucocorticoid (iv GC) represents the mainstay of therapy for Graves’ ophthalmopathy (GO), but uncertainty remains concerning the optimal regimen. Although the European Group on Graves’ Orbitopathy (EUGOGO) regimen has been commonly employed, evidence for its superiority to other regimens is still lacking. The aim of this meta-analysis was to compare the efficacy and safety of the EUGOGO regimen with higher-dose regimens in the management of GO. Methods. A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies comparing the EUGOGO regimen with higher-dose regimens was conducted. PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases were searched for relevant studies. The efficacy outcomes were response rate, change in clinical activity score (CAS), rate of proptosis improvement, and retreatment rate. The safety outcome was the incidence of adverse events. Results. In the five included eligible trials, 136 participants in the EUGOGO regimen and 177 participants in higher-dose regimens were evaluated. Compared with the EUGOGO regimen, higher-dose regimens had no beneficial effect on the response rate, change of CAS, rate of proptosis improvement, and retreatment rate (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 0.36–4.65; SMD: –0.04; 95% CI: –0.54, 0.45; OR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.44–1.44; OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.27–2.77). For the incidence of adverse events, the results also showed no significant difference between the 2 groups (OR: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.62–2.09). Conclusion. The current evidence showed that the efficacy of the EUGOGO regimen was comparable with higher-dose regimens. Since there was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse events between the two regimens, appropriate selection of patients and careful monitoring were required in both regimens. More well-designed, large-scale, and longer follow-up period studies were needed to further verify the finding of this analysis.