The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of Singapore

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 20170055
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Hanafiah Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Research Direction ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Previous studies that tested the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade balances assumed that the effects are symmetric. The more recent research direction has now changed to investigating the possibility of asymmetric effects. In this paper, we assess the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balances of Singapore with her 11 partners. By applying the nonlinear ARDL approach, which separates appreciations from depreciations, we find that exchange rate changes have short-run asymmetric effects in most models. The short-run effects, however, lasted into the long run in a few models. In the long run, while depreciation improves Singapore’s trade balance with the U.S., it hurts it with Malaysia and China. These three partners account for almost 50 % of Singapore’s trade.

scholarly journals Do Exchange Rate Changes Have Asymmetric or Symmetric Effects on the Demand for Money in the Gambia

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 276
Author(s):  
Kebba Bah ◽  
Karamat Khan ◽  
Artif Taufiq Nurrachman Aziez ◽  
Ali Kishwar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The Gambia ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
The Relationship

In trying to explain the relationship between exchange rate and demand for money researchers have applied different models. In this paper, we applied both the linear and nonlinear ARDL to check the effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money (M1 and M2) in The Gambia. The result revealed that the demand for money is cointegrated with its determinants and have a stable short-run relationship. It also revealed that exchange rate changes have only short-run asymmetric effects on demand for money (M1 or M2) but don’t have long-run effects.

scholarly journals Effects of Bilateral Real Exchange Rate on Sino-Nigeria Trade: An ARDL Cointegration Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Julio Felippe Bicudo ◽  
Nnanna P. Azu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Bilateral Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Negative Role ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Negative Balance

This research is motivated to scrutinise the effects of real bilateral exchange rate fluctuation on China-Nigeria bilateral trade, taking into consideration volatility and third country’s bilateral exchange rate effect to determine their consequences. Due to its robustness in time series analyses, an ARDL approach to co-integration was used to determine the long-and short-runs effects. Both export and import were considered separately. Outcome revealed that Nigeria’s import from China responds negatively to real bilateral exchange rate increase just as it does to its volatility. Her export to China reacts positively on both front, most especially in the short-run. Japan was integrated as a third country in this research due to her competing presence in Nigerian market. Third country’s real bilateral exchange rate play prominent but negative role in China-Nigeria trade, and is mostly effective in the long-run. With the absolute value of the co-efficient of real bilateral exchange rate greater than one, depreciating the Naira against the Renminbi will tend to ameliorate the negative balance of trade Nigeria has with China. Finally, democratic regime was found to be very essential in enhancing international business.

DO EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES HAVE SYMMETRIC OR ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION?

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (03) ◽  
pp. 1950013
Author(s):  
SURESH KUMAR OAD RAJPUT ◽  
NIAZ HUSSAIN GHUMRO ◽  
NADIA ANJUM
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

This paper investigates whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on international trade integration, using quarterly time series data from 1980: Q1 till 2018: Q2. The recent innovation in cointegration techniques allows us to estimate nonlinear effects. We apply both linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL models. The empirical results indicate that asymmetric relationship exists between exchange rate (REER) and international trade integration (ITI) in the short-run as well as in the long-run, meaning that real effective exchange rate has negative and statistically significant effects on international trade integration. Robustness checks indicate no role of various crisis including GFC on the relationship between ITI and REER, however, regime change has significantly negative impact in short-run and positive in long-run on ITI. The results are important because when we separate currency appreciation from the depreciation, it has the significant and different effects on international trade integration.

scholarly journals Do Exchange Rate Changes have Symmetric or Asymmetric Effects on the Demand for Money in Korea?

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-168
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Jungho Baek
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Previous studies that included the exchange rate in the Korean demand for money assumed that the effects of the exchange rate changes are symmetric and adjustment process is linear. They found no significant effects. In this paper we apply Shin et al.’s (2014) Nonlinear ARDL approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling and test the symmetric versus asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in Korea. Using quarterly data over the period 1973-2014, the results show that indeed the effects are asymmetric in the short run. In the long run, however, although the effects are symmetric but both won depreciation and won appreciation have significantly negative effects on the demand for money, supporting the wealth effects argument.

scholarly journals FENOMENA KURVA J PADA NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN ENAM NEGARA MITRA DAGANG UTAMA

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Anggraeni Tri Hapsari ◽  
Akhmad Syakir Kurnia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Whether a J curve phenomenon exists or not on the balance of trade has been an interest for empirical investigation in international economics. The phenomenon is typically associated with the response of the balance of trade to the exchange rate dynamics. Since a country has different trade features with different trading partners, the trade balances adjustment to the exchange rate dynamics should be seen as a head to head phenomenon. This paper investigates the effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and its six major trading partners, namely Japan, China, Singapore, United States, South Korea and India on a quarterly basis over the period 1995.1 to 2013.4. The short run and the long run effect of the REER on the balance of trade is expected to be captured using error correction model (ECM) and vector error correction model (VECM). Subsequently, impulse response function is used to trace out the behavior of the bilateral trade balance in response to the REER shock whereas forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is used to decay the effect of innovation variables in the system. The result indicates that in the long run a J curve phenomenon appears on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and Japan, China, Singapore as well as South Korea. In the short run, a J curve phenomenon is seen on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and China as well as Singapore. This confirms that a J curve is a head to head phenomenon that has correlation with the trade features. Thus, the correction mechanism to the trade balance in response to the exchange rate shock (i.e. exchange rate market intervention) should count trade features as a consideration

scholarly journals Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of the Turkish Trade Balance

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huseyin Karamelikli
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Short Run

<p>This study empirically analyses bilateral trade of Turkey with her main trade partners using monthly time series data over the period of 2000 to 2015. J-curve theory and short-run dynamics of bilateral trade is tested by linear ARDL and Non-linear ARDL approaches. The empirical results indicate that there is no J-curve effect during short-run for United States and for France; it symmetrically exists to Germany and asymmetrically to United Kingdom. Also long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance has mixed results. Asymmetric long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance for United States exists where it is symmetrically most appropriate for Germany. In the other hand this study failed to verify any long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance for France and for United Kingdom.</p>

Nonlinear ARDL approach, asymmetric effects and the J-curve

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 519-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Hadise Fariditavana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Ardl Approach

Purpose – Previous research that investigated the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance assumed that the adjustment of all variables in a given model is in linear fashion. The authors wonder if introduction of nonlinearity in the adjustment of some variables such as the exchange rate can shed additional light on evidence of the J-curve. The new approach also allows to test whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance. Estimates of a trade balance model for Canada, China, Japan, and the USA reveal that the effects are indeed asymmetric. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology is based on linear and nonlinear ARDL approach. Findings – When nonlinearity is introduced into testing approach for the J-curve, more evidence is found in support of the J-curve. Research limitations/implications – The models are estimated using aggregate trade flows of each country with the rest of the world, hence they suffer from aggregation bias. Using trade flows at bilateral level and at commodity level are highly recommended for future research. Originality/value – This is the first paper that applies nonlinear ARDL approach to test the short-run and long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance.

Thailand’s trade balance with each of her 15 largest partners: an asymmetry analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 660-672 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Tatchawan Kanitpong
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Thailand’s trade balances. Design/methodology/approach The design methodology is based on the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014). Findings The authors find strong support for the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Thailand trade balance with most partners, including the three largest partners, China, Japan and the USA. Research limitations/implications The long-run asymmetric effects revealed that while baht depreciation will hurt Thailand’s trade balance with China, it will improve its trade balance with the USA and has no effects with Japan. Practical implications The trade balance of different partners reacts differently to currency depreciation. Social implications A currency depreciation that improves the trade balance by promoting exports also helps to reduce the rate of unemployment. Originality/value No study has assessed the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Thailand’s trade balance with its major partners.

ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON BILATERAL TRADE BETWEEN TAIWAN AND INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (04) ◽  
pp. 857-888
Author(s):  
MEI-SE CHIEN ◽  
NUR SETYOWATI ◽  
CHIH-YANG CHENG
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade between Taiwan and Indonesia via 19 export and import industries. Considering the existence of an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on trade, we employ an asymmetric ARDL model and arrive at the following main results. First, the long-run asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility shows far higher impacts on Taiwan’s exports to Indonesia than on Taiwan’s imports from Indonesia. Second, the short-run asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility causes unstable changes on the trade amounts for most of Taiwan’s export and import industries with Indonesia.

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