Ewolucja systemu partyjnego i sceny politycznej w Bułgarii w latach 1990-2017 – od dwublokowości do wielopartyjności

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-300
Author(s):  
Marzena Czernicka
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
The Political ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
System Transformation ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Political Scene

This article concerns the evolution of the party system and the political scene of Bulgaria after the system transformations. The foundations of this analysis are the results of the elections to the National Assembly in the years 1990-2017. In order to identify the type of the party system, official election results and the effective number of parties index (ENP) were used. This index was used to characterise the party system after 2001. Some conditions from communism time had an influence on the shape and kind of how the Bulgarian party system and political scene evolved after system transformation. Between 1990-2001 in Bulgaria, a two-block or two and a half-block party system existed. From 2001 it evolves in the direction of a multiparty system.

scholarly journals Predicting the Number of Parties: A Quantitative Model of Duverger's Mechanical Effect

1993 ◽  
Vol 87 (2) ◽  
pp. 455-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rein Taagepera ◽  
Matthew Soberg Shugart
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Mechanical Effect ◽  
Structural Constraints ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Institutional Variables ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Great Portion

The mechanical effect of electoral systems, identified by Maurice Duverger, can be estimated by means of a quantitative model. The model predicts the range within which the effective number of parties in a district should fall for a given magnitude (number of seats) of the district. At the national level, a related model predicts the effective number of parties based on the effective magnitude and the number of seats in the national assembly. The institutional variables considered—magnitude and assembly size—define a great portion of the structural constraints within which a given country's politics must take place. The model developed provides a good fit to data in spite of its having been developed from outrageously simple starting assumptions.

Crowded Space, Fertile Ground: Party Entry and the Effective Number of Parties

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 317-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel M. Kselman ◽  
Eleanor Neff Powell ◽  
Joshua A. Tucker
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Party System ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Fertile Ground ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties

This paper develops a novel argument as to the conditions under which new political parties will form in democratic states. Our approach hinges on the manner in which politicians evaluate the policy implications of new party entry alongside considerations of incumbency for its own sake. We demonstrate that if candidates care sufficiently about policy outcomes, then the likelihood of party entry shouldincreasewith the effective number of status quo parties in the party system. This relationship weakens, and eventually disappears, as politicians’ emphasis on “office-seeking” motivations increases relative to their interest in public policy. We test these predictions with both aggregate electoral data in contemporary Europe and a data set on legislative volatility in Turkey, uncovering support for the argument that party system fragmentation should positively affect the likelihood of entry when policy-seeking motivations are relevant, but not otherwise.

The Number of Parties and Party System Nationalization in an Integrated Analytical Framework

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 662-681
Author(s):  
Grigorii V. Golosov
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Direct And Indirect Effects ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Methodological Tool ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Nuanced Understanding ◽  
Number Of Parties

This study develops a methodological tool for integration of research on party system fragmentation and party system nationalization. The method is built by decomposing a standard indicator of fragmentation, the effective number of parties, into individual-party components (effective size scores), and weighting them by nationalization scores, which allows for disaggregating the number of parties into two distinct components, the effective numbers of national and regional parties. As a result, it becomes possible to assess the influences of substantively important factors upon the components of the number of parties and the overall level of fragmentation in a methodologically consistent, quantifiable way. In addition, the proposed framework of analysis differentiates between direct and indirect effects upon party system fragmentation. A preliminary empirical test on a sample from 90 countries demonstrates that the proposed framework for analysis allows for achieving a rich and nuanced understanding of the factors of party system fragmentation.

scholarly journals Adapt or Perish? How Parties Respond to Party System Saturation in 21 Western Democracies, 1945–2011

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc van de Wardt ◽  
Arjen van Witteloostuijn
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Party System ◽  
System Change ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Limited Capacity ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Western Democracies

Abstract This study examines whether (and how) parties adapt to party system saturation (PSS). A party system is oversaturated when a higher effective number of parties contests elections than predicted. Previous research has shown that parties are more likely to exit when party systems are oversaturated. This article examines whether parties will adapt by increasing the nicheness of their policy platform, by forming electoral alliances or by merging. Based on time-series analyses of 522 parties contesting 357 elections in twenty-one established Western democracies between 1945 and 2011, the study finds that parties are more likely to enter – and less likely to leave – electoral alliances if PSS increases. Additionally, a small share of older parties will merge. The results highlight parties’ limited capacity to adapt to their environments, which has important implications for the literature on party (system) change and models of electoral competition.

Counting the Number of Parties: An Alternative Index

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (4) ◽  
pp. 1383-1391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Molinar
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Variable Number ◽  
The Other ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Computational Logic ◽  
Alternative Index ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Critical Overview

I propose an alternative index to operationalize the variable number and size of parties in a party system. To support it, I present a critical overview of the two most common indices, Laakso and Taagepera's effective number of parties and Kesselman and Wildgen's hyperfractionalization, showing the causes of their weakness. Then I explain the computational logic of my alternative, “number of parties,” and compare it with the other two, using hypothetical cases. After that, I contrast the Laakso-Taagepera index with mine, using data from actual elections between 1945 and 1981. I conclude that my index outperforms the other two as an operationalization of the variable number and size of parties.

scholarly journals How and why do political parties differ in their spending patterns? An empirical analysis of expenditure on party payroll staff

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-230
Author(s):  
Jef Smulders ◽  
Bart Maddens
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Party System ◽  
Multivariate Model ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Spending Patterns ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Central Offices ◽  
Number Of Parties

Despite the pivotal role of payroll staff within political parties’ central offices, research on the staff expenses of parties remains scarce. In this article, we study the relative staff expenses of political parties, that is staff costs as a percentage of total annual expenses. We analyse which factors explain the differences between parties’ relative staff expenses, based on a dataset of 590 individual observations representing 52 parties from seven European countries. The multivariate model shows that relative staff expenses are higher among left-oriented parties and that they increase with party age, party membership figures and the number of years a party has been in government, while they decrease with party income. Relative staff expenses also decrease with the effective number of parties in the party system, and they are lower in election years.

scholarly journals Heading towards Collapse? Assessment of the Slovak Party System after the 2020 General Elections

2021 ◽  
pp. 27-50
Author(s):  
Alexandra Smolecová ◽  
Daniel Šárovec
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Individual Development ◽  
Cycle Period ◽  
Aggregation Index ◽  
General Elections ◽  
History Of ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Number Of Parties

This article aims to analyse changes of the Slovak party system from 1992 to the last parliamentary elections of 2020. These elections were the eighth elections in the history of independent Slovakia. There are discussions about stability or instability of individual development stages of the party system. In the article, Attention is paid to changes in the distribution of forces within the development of the party system. In political science, various methods are used to measure the party system’s dynamics to determine the intensity of changes and the trends arising from them. This analysis is based on election results in each electoral cycle (period), which are being compared. Next part of the analysis is focused on the selected comparative indicators: Index of the Effective Number of Parties and Aggregation Index. These indices are chosen based on the criteria of classification of party systems. The results presented in the final part of the paper prove that several significant milestones in development of party system could be identified, as confirmed by the 2020 general elections – a major breakthrough in development trends.

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