An alternative index to NINO3.4 for predicting monthly rainfall anomaly in East Java

ENSO and NINO3.4 index are known to have some relation with Indonesian monthly rainfall anomaly. There is a gap between scientific studies on one hand and forecasting operational problems on the other hand since previous studies are not giving enough attention to the N+1,2,3 concept. The concept is about giving three next month rainfall anomaly prediction rather than connecting ENSO index with three-monthly rainfall anomaly. Here we propose an alternative index for ENSO. The median of categorical gridded rainfall anomaly of East Java is used as a general representation. Plots of correlation between the median and anomaly sea surface temperature from ReynSmithOIv2 are used to determine locus candidate to be compared with NINO3.4. The Near Maritime Continent (NMC) index is selected and proven to have a significant average difference in correlation between based on bootstrap technique. Verification of prediction used in this study is simulation-based and only uses binary hit-miss final result. Prediction is generated by simple linear regression with three lag times (2,3, and 4). Verification based on three categories shows that NMC’s hits are higher than NINO.34 in lag-2 and lag-3. In lag-2, NMC’s verification is 57.5% compared to only 38.7% for NINO3.4. However, NINO3.4 is a still better predictor in lag-4. Radar charts of monthly verifications are also developed.

Do terms of trade improve export sophistication in Africa? New empirical evidence and transmission channel

Can gains from international trade allow for a modernization of the export structure in Africa? Answering this question is the main objective of this study. In other words, it is to analyze the impact of terms of trade on export sophistication. The study covers a sample of 46 African countries over the period 2002-2014. Ordinary Least Squares and System GMM estimates show that terms of trade positively affect export sophistication. The result remains robust to the inclusion of additional variables, to the use of economic complexity index as an alternative index of sophistication. Moreover, our results show that the effect differs according to the countries' production structure. Indeed, the export of oil products has no effect on sophistication while the export of goods has a weak effect on the export upgrading. In addition, exports of manufactured goods have a positive and very significant effect on export sophistication. Our analyses allow us to identify two main channels through which terms of trade are likely to influence export sophistication: the channel of productive investment and the channel of exchange rate devaluation.

Pilot study of air quality index assessment of nitrogen pollutant using lichen as bioindicators in Jakarta and Depok, Indonesia

Indonesia needs an alternative air quality index considering that the ones currently in use were not precisely made for the environment and people’s genetic makeup in Indonesia. This study aims to determine if lichen can be used as an alternative index to assess Indonesia’s air quality by acting as a bioindicator. Lichen samples were taken at six locations, three in Gelora Bung Karno’s City Forest, Jakarta, and three at the Universitas Indonesia’s city forest, Depok. Lichens are identified according to the chemical test results and identification key. The amount of lichen obtained is calculated and converted into a NAQI chart to determine if the site’s status is clean air, at-risk, N-polluted, or very N-polluted location. Two of them are polluted by nitrogen from seven sampling areas, while the other five are heavily polluted. This data shows the air quality in all areas is insufficient and polluted. However, our findings are contradictory to nitrogen pollutant data from Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Council (BMKG). Thus, in the future, there should be a calibrator when measuring air quality analysis using lichen.

The evaluation of the Coffee Market under the Application of the Coffeeconomics index

<p>The Coffeeconomics index is an alternative index to evaluate the Coffee market structure behaviour from a microeconomic and macroeconomic perspective. Hence, the coffee market structure is formed by the interaction of four large players such as coffee producers (small, cooperatives, and large), coffee brokers, coffee sellers (large, medium, and small), and coffee consumers. The main objective is to evaluate the vulnerabilities of the coffee market structure as a whole through the application of the National Coffee<b> </b>Production Function (NCP-Function). Finally, we calculate the NCP-Function to evaluate the risk and vulnerability of the coffee market structure of Guatemala between 1928 and 2018 respectively. </p>

The evaluation of the Coffee Market under the Application of the Coffeeconomics index

<p>The Coffeeconomics index is an alternative index to evaluate the Coffee market structure behaviour from a microeconomic and macroeconomic perspective. Hence, the coffee market structure is formed by the interaction of four large players such as coffee producers (small, cooperatives, and large), coffee brokers, coffee sellers (large, medium, and small), and coffee consumers. The main objective is to evaluate the vulnerabilities of the coffee market structure as a whole through the application of the National Coffee<b> </b>Production Function (NCP-Function). Finally, we calculate the NCP-Function to evaluate the risk and vulnerability of the coffee market structure of Guatemala between 1928 and 2018 respectively. </p>

Spatial analysis of demand for sparsely located ecosystem services using alternative index approaches

This study focuses on the effects of spatial discounting and substitutes sites on the demand for ecosystem services (ES) provided by scattered agroecosystems. New ways of modelling these two effects are proposed, relying on area-based and density-based indices. Data from discrete choice experiments are used, based on a case study of Andalusian olive groves (southern Spain). The results show that model fit is significantly improved by the introduction of these spatial indices, with the best outcome found for the area-based index combined with the inverse of the distance. Results provide evidence of substantial spatial heterogeneity depending on the ES (carbon sequestration, soil conservation and biodiversity), indicating different economic jurisdictions.