Is the Korean Party System Unstable after Democratization? : Focusing on the Effective Number of Parties and Electoral Volatility Indexes

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 5-35
Author(s):  
Gi-Woo Roh ◽  
Hyeon-woo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Electoral Volatility ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties

Crowded Space, Fertile Ground: Party Entry and the Effective Number of Parties

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 317-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel M. Kselman ◽  
Eleanor Neff Powell ◽  
Joshua A. Tucker
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Party System ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Fertile Ground ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties

This paper develops a novel argument as to the conditions under which new political parties will form in democratic states. Our approach hinges on the manner in which politicians evaluate the policy implications of new party entry alongside considerations of incumbency for its own sake. We demonstrate that if candidates care sufficiently about policy outcomes, then the likelihood of party entry shouldincreasewith the effective number of status quo parties in the party system. This relationship weakens, and eventually disappears, as politicians’ emphasis on “office-seeking” motivations increases relative to their interest in public policy. We test these predictions with both aggregate electoral data in contemporary Europe and a data set on legislative volatility in Turkey, uncovering support for the argument that party system fragmentation should positively affect the likelihood of entry when policy-seeking motivations are relevant, but not otherwise.

The Number of Parties and Party System Nationalization in an Integrated Analytical Framework

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 662-681
Author(s):  
Grigorii V. Golosov
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Direct And Indirect Effects ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Methodological Tool ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Nuanced Understanding ◽  
Number Of Parties

This study develops a methodological tool for integration of research on party system fragmentation and party system nationalization. The method is built by decomposing a standard indicator of fragmentation, the effective number of parties, into individual-party components (effective size scores), and weighting them by nationalization scores, which allows for disaggregating the number of parties into two distinct components, the effective numbers of national and regional parties. As a result, it becomes possible to assess the influences of substantively important factors upon the components of the number of parties and the overall level of fragmentation in a methodologically consistent, quantifiable way. In addition, the proposed framework of analysis differentiates between direct and indirect effects upon party system fragmentation. A preliminary empirical test on a sample from 90 countries demonstrates that the proposed framework for analysis allows for achieving a rich and nuanced understanding of the factors of party system fragmentation.

scholarly journals Adapt or Perish? How Parties Respond to Party System Saturation in 21 Western Democracies, 1945–2011

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc van de Wardt ◽  
Arjen van Witteloostuijn
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Party System ◽  
System Change ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Limited Capacity ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Western Democracies

Abstract This study examines whether (and how) parties adapt to party system saturation (PSS). A party system is oversaturated when a higher effective number of parties contests elections than predicted. Previous research has shown that parties are more likely to exit when party systems are oversaturated. This article examines whether parties will adapt by increasing the nicheness of their policy platform, by forming electoral alliances or by merging. Based on time-series analyses of 522 parties contesting 357 elections in twenty-one established Western democracies between 1945 and 2011, the study finds that parties are more likely to enter – and less likely to leave – electoral alliances if PSS increases. Additionally, a small share of older parties will merge. The results highlight parties’ limited capacity to adapt to their environments, which has important implications for the literature on party (system) change and models of electoral competition.

Counting the Number of Parties: An Alternative Index

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (4) ◽  
pp. 1383-1391 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Molinar
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Variable Number ◽  
The Other ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Computational Logic ◽  
Alternative Index ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Critical Overview

I propose an alternative index to operationalize the variable number and size of parties in a party system. To support it, I present a critical overview of the two most common indices, Laakso and Taagepera's effective number of parties and Kesselman and Wildgen's hyperfractionalization, showing the causes of their weakness. Then I explain the computational logic of my alternative, “number of parties,” and compare it with the other two, using hypothetical cases. After that, I contrast the Laakso-Taagepera index with mine, using data from actual elections between 1945 and 1981. I conclude that my index outperforms the other two as an operationalization of the variable number and size of parties.

scholarly journals How and why do political parties differ in their spending patterns? An empirical analysis of expenditure on party payroll staff

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-230
Author(s):  
Jef Smulders ◽  
Bart Maddens
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Party System ◽  
Multivariate Model ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Spending Patterns ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Central Offices ◽  
Number Of Parties

Despite the pivotal role of payroll staff within political parties’ central offices, research on the staff expenses of parties remains scarce. In this article, we study the relative staff expenses of political parties, that is staff costs as a percentage of total annual expenses. We analyse which factors explain the differences between parties’ relative staff expenses, based on a dataset of 590 individual observations representing 52 parties from seven European countries. The multivariate model shows that relative staff expenses are higher among left-oriented parties and that they increase with party age, party membership figures and the number of years a party has been in government, while they decrease with party income. Relative staff expenses also decrease with the effective number of parties in the party system, and they are lower in election years.

Ewolucja systemu partyjnego i sceny politycznej w Bułgarii w latach 1990-2017 – od dwublokowości do wielopartyjności

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-300
Author(s):  
Marzena Czernicka
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
The Political ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
System Transformation ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Political Scene

This article concerns the evolution of the party system and the political scene of Bulgaria after the system transformations. The foundations of this analysis are the results of the elections to the National Assembly in the years 1990-2017. In order to identify the type of the party system, official election results and the effective number of parties index (ENP) were used. This index was used to characterise the party system after 2001. Some conditions from communism time had an influence on the shape and kind of how the Bulgarian party system and political scene evolved after system transformation. Between 1990-2001 in Bulgaria, a two-block or two and a half-block party system existed. From 2001 it evolves in the direction of a multiparty system.

scholarly journals Which Parties Count? - The Effective Number of Parties in the Albanian Party System

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Anjeza Xhaferaj
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Party System ◽  
Contemporary Literature ◽  
Communist Regime ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties

The aim of this paper is to explore and understand the Albanian Party System. The analysis will cover the period from the collapse of the communist regime in 1991 until 2014. It will try to investigate what forces drive the battle of the parties, what cleavages 'divide' society and consequently the party system as well as which are the parties that count the most. in order to assess this, the paper will focus on the parliamentary parties and will relay on various theoretical concepts of the contemporary literature on political parties. First it will draw on Sartori's concept of 'relevance' in order to understand whether all the parliamentary parties over the course of twenty four years of pluralism are important or not and what weight do they have. Then it will use the Laakso - Taagepera index of the Effective Number of Parties to understand how power is distributed within the parliament.

Federal and Subnational Elections in Russia: Coherence and Divergence in Electoral Outcomes

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-353
Author(s):  
Rostislav Turovsky ◽  
Marina Sukhova
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Strong Connection ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Electoral Authoritarianism ◽  
Subnational Elections ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Regional Elections

Abstract This article examines the differences between Russian voting at federal elections and regional legislature elections, both combined and conducted independently. The authors analyse these differences, their character and their dynamics as an important characteristic of the nationalisation of the party system. They also test hypotheses about a higher level of oppositional voting and competitiveness in subnational elections, in accordance with the theory of second-order elections, as well as the strategic nature of voting at federal elections, by contrast with expressive voting during subnational campaigns. The empirical study is based on calculating the differences in votes for leading Russian parties at subnational elections and at federal elections (simultaneous, preceding and following) from 2003, when mandatory voting on party lists was widespread among the regions, to 2019. The level of competitiveness is measured in a similar way, by calculating the effective number of parties. The study indicates a low level of autonomy of regional party systems, in many ways caused by the fact that the law made it impossible to create regional parties, and then also by the 2005 ban on creation of regional blocs. The strong connection between federal and regional elections in Russia clearly underlines the fluid and asynchronic nature of its electoral dynamics, where subnational elections typically predetermine the results of the following federal campaigns. At the same time, the formal success of the nationalisation of the party system, achieved by increasing the homogeneity of voting at the 2016 and 2018 federal elections, is not reflected by the opposing process of desynchronisation between federal and regional elections after Putin’s third-term election. There is also a clear rise in the scale of the differences between the two. At the same time, the study demonstrates the potential presence in Russia of features common to subnational elections in many countries: their greater support for the opposition and presence of affective voting. However, there is a clear exception to this trend during the period of maximum mobilisation of the loyal electorate at the subnational elections immediately following the accession of Crimea in 2014–2015, and such tendencies are generally restrained by the conditions of electoral authoritarianism.

scholarly journals Predicting the Number of Parties: A Quantitative Model of Duverger's Mechanical Effect

1993 ◽  
Vol 87 (2) ◽  
pp. 455-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rein Taagepera ◽  
Matthew Soberg Shugart
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Mechanical Effect ◽  
Structural Constraints ◽  
Effective Number ◽  
Institutional Variables ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Great Portion

The mechanical effect of electoral systems, identified by Maurice Duverger, can be estimated by means of a quantitative model. The model predicts the range within which the effective number of parties in a district should fall for a given magnitude (number of seats) of the district. At the national level, a related model predicts the effective number of parties based on the effective magnitude and the number of seats in the national assembly. The institutional variables considered—magnitude and assembly size—define a great portion of the structural constraints within which a given country's politics must take place. The model developed provides a good fit to data in spite of its having been developed from outrageously simple starting assumptions.

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