REGIONAL PARTY SYSTEM OF NORTHERN IRELAND: EROSION OF BIPOLARITY

The subject of the article is the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland in 2000-2010s, as well as the factors contributing to the observed changes. The research is based on the theoretical framework of J. Lane and S. Ersson and is chronologically outlined by the period of 1998-2021. Cross-temporal comparative analysis was used as a key research method. The parameters of the comparative analysis include the following variables: number of parties, effective number of parties, number of significant parties, fragmentation of the party system, ideological polarization and electoral instability. The first part of the article is devoted to the characteristics of the theoretical and methodological research design. The second part is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland, which is based on the study of structural and ideological elements. In the final part, the results and key findings of the study are presented, including the characteristics of the key factors in the dynamics of the regional party system. The results of the study demonstrate the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland regarding two parameters - electoral stability and ideological polarization. The degree of electoral stability of the regional party is slightly decreasing due to the redistribution of electoral preferences from unionist parties to alternative ones. The change in the parameter of ideological polarization of the regional party system is observed in two directions - the erosion of bipolarity, as well as the centripetal tendencies of ideologically extreme party actors. The key factors in the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland at the present stage are the following: instability of the regional political system based on ethno-confessional criteria; the issue of European Union membership and the future status of Northern Ireland; changes in the demographic structure of the regional community.

Ewolucja systemu partyjnego i sceny politycznej w Bułgarii w latach 1990-2017 – od dwublokowości do wielopartyjności

This article concerns the evolution of the party system and the political scene of Bulgaria after the system transformations. The foundations of this analysis are the results of the elections to the National Assembly in the years 1990-2017. In order to identify the type of the party system, official election results and the effective number of parties index (ENP) were used. This index was used to characterise the party system after 2001. Some conditions from communism time had an influence on the shape and kind of how the Bulgarian party system and political scene evolved after system transformation. Between 1990-2001 in Bulgaria, a two-block or two and a half-block party system existed. From 2001 it evolves in the direction of a multiparty system.

What Makes Party Systems Different? A Principal Component Analysis of 17 Advanced Democracies 1970–2013

Party systems, that is, the number and the size of all the parties within a country, can vary greatly across countries. I conduct a principal component analysis on a party seat share dataset of 17 advanced democracies from 1970 to 2013 to reduce the dimensionality of the data. I find that the most important dimensions that differentiate party systems are: “the size of the biggest two parties” and the level of “competition between the two biggest parties.” I use the results to compare the changes in electoral and legislative party systems. I also juxtapose the results to previous party system typologies and party system size measures. I find that typologies sort countries into categories based on variation along both dimensions. On the other hand, most of the current political science literature use measures (e.g., the effective number of parties) that are correlated with the first dimension. I suggest that instead of these, indices that measure the opposition structure and competition could be used to explore problems pertaining to the competitiveness of the party systems.

Heading towards Collapse? Assessment of the Slovak Party System after the 2020 General Elections

This article aims to analyse changes of the Slovak party system from 1992 to the last parliamentary elections of 2020. These elections were the eighth elections in the history of independent Slovakia. There are discussions about stability or instability of individual development stages of the party system. In the article, Attention is paid to changes in the distribution of forces within the development of the party system. In political science, various methods are used to measure the party system’s dynamics to determine the intensity of changes and the trends arising from them. This analysis is based on election results in each electoral cycle (period), which are being compared. Next part of the analysis is focused on the selected comparative indicators: Index of the Effective Number of Parties and Aggregation Index. These indices are chosen based on the criteria of classification of party systems. The results presented in the final part of the paper prove that several significant milestones in development of party system could be identified, as confirmed by the 2020 general elections – a major breakthrough in development trends.

On the Structure of the Political Party System in Indian States, 1957 - 2018

What accounts for the large and ever-changing number of political parties that contest Indian state elections? In this paper we test an equilibrium model of political parties where the number of parties depend on the average size of state constituencies, the heterogeneity of the state’s electorate, state per capita income as well as constitutional and legislative rules that directly affect party numbers. Extending the analysis to consider the effects on entry and exits highlights those factors that have affected party turnover instead of or in addition to changing aggregate party numbers. Comparison of the effects on numbers with those on the effective number of parties (ENP) suggests that the model explains variations in the number of smaller sized parties that are a more transitory part of the electoral process. Whether this implies that the model is more applicable to the lesser developed Indian states is examined by re-testing the model against a subdivision of states that differ by their stage of development. While most variables work in the same way, increases in the proportion of reserved seats have decreased both party numbers and ENP in lower income states, with the opposite occurring in higher income states. The effect of state partition has been to decrease party vote fragmentation more than party numbers.

Federal and Subnational Elections in Russia: Coherence and Divergence in Electoral Outcomes

This article examines the differences between Russian voting at federal elections and regional legislature elections, both combined and conducted independently. The authors analyse these differences, their character and their dynamics as an important characteristic of the nationalisation of the party system. They also test hypotheses about a higher level of oppositional voting and competitiveness in subnational elections, in accordance with the theory of second-order elections, as well as the strategic nature of voting at federal elections, by contrast with expressive voting during subnational campaigns. The empirical study is based on calculating the differences in votes for leading Russian parties at subnational elections and at federal elections (simultaneous, preceding and following) from 2003, when mandatory voting on party lists was widespread among the regions, to 2019. The level of competitiveness is measured in a similar way, by calculating the effective number of parties. The study indicates a low level of autonomy of regional party systems, in many ways caused by the fact that the law made it impossible to create regional parties, and then also by the 2005 ban on creation of regional blocs. The strong connection between federal and regional elections in Russia clearly underlines the fluid and asynchronic nature of its electoral dynamics, where subnational elections typically predetermine the results of the following federal campaigns. At the same time, the formal success of the nationalisation of the party system, achieved by increasing the homogeneity of voting at the 2016 and 2018 federal elections, is not reflected by the opposing process of desynchronisation between federal and regional elections after Putin’s third-term election. There is also a clear rise in the scale of the differences between the two. At the same time, the study demonstrates the potential presence in Russia of features common to subnational elections in many countries: their greater support for the opposition and presence of affective voting. However, there is a clear exception to this trend during the period of maximum mobilisation of the loyal electorate at the subnational elections immediately following the accession of Crimea in 2014–2015, and such tendencies are generally restrained by the conditions of electoral authoritarianism.

Analysis of the Association Between Political Change in Local Government and Municipal Financial Condition in Spain During the Great Recession

The political influence on the financial condition of local government has been examined in various studies in the academic literature. However, no clear relationship has yet been established between such political factors and the constituent elements of financial condition sustainability in the context of the recent Great Recession. The aim of this study is to evaluate the dimensions of electoral size, defined for the chapter's purposes as the effective number of parties, and of transfer (i.e., how electoral gains and losses are related to the configuration of the party system) using a series of aggregate indices. Once these indicators are obtained, they are related to various indicators of financial condition for five Spanish cities. The results obtained show that financial condition either worsened or presented little change in the different cases considered and that various scenarios of aggregate volatility during the study period were detected.

Adapt or Perish? How Parties Respond to Party System Saturation in 21 Western Democracies, 1945–2011

This study examines whether (and how) parties adapt to party system saturation (PSS). A party system is oversaturated when a higher effective number of parties contests elections than predicted. Previous research has shown that parties are more likely to exit when party systems are oversaturated. This article examines whether parties will adapt by increasing the nicheness of their policy platform, by forming electoral alliances or by merging. Based on time-series analyses of 522 parties contesting 357 elections in twenty-one established Western democracies between 1945 and 2011, the study finds that parties are more likely to enter – and less likely to leave – electoral alliances if PSS increases. Additionally, a small share of older parties will merge. The results highlight parties’ limited capacity to adapt to their environments, which has important implications for the literature on party (system) change and models of electoral competition.