scholarly journals Accounting Implications of Oil Price, Interest Rate and Unemployment on Nigeria’s Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Oil Price

Oil Export Earnings, Exchange Rate Variability, and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 11-23
Author(s):  
Folorunso Sunday Ayadi ◽  
Olubunmi Elizabeth Oluwagbemi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Exchange Rate Variability ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This paper investigates oil revenue and exchange rate volatility and as well as their impacts on Nigerian economic growth which is examined from 1980 – 2010. Exchange rate volatility was captured using standard deviationof monthly nominal effective exchange rate. During this period, Nigeria recorded high levels of volatility (in oil receipt and effective exchange rate) as can be seen from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) - ARCH/GARCH results. Also, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicate that some of the variables exhibit unit root, this research further makes use of vector autoregressive process (VAR) using the variance decomposition of Choleski factorisation in which forecast error variance of some systems of equations has innovations which is credited to each variable and the method of impulse response function. The authors established that exchange rate in Nigeria due to its volatility causes revenue volatility from oil and this has a daring consequence on Nigeria's economic growth (being a monoculture economy). They found that change in oil price index, change in interest rate, proportion of export to GDP and exchange rate variability bears some negative impacts on change in the rate of output growth in Nigeria. Moreover, government size and exchange rate variability created some disturbances to change in the rate of output, these changes were not as substantial as those created by change in interest rate, ratio of oil export to GDP and change in oil price index. In addition, change in output responds negatively for some time horizon to one-standard deviation shocks in change in oil price index, change in interest rate, oil export to GDP and exchange rate variability. The authors recommend economic diversification and sound macroeconomic management among others.

scholarly journals OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY: A STRUCTURAL VAR APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Osi Alenoghena
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Price Shocks

This study examines the effect of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of the Nigerian economy covering the period from 1980 to 2018. The effect of oil price shocks is investigated on macroeconomic variables like output growth, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and industrial production index using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach. The results of the investigation reveal that oil price shocks have significantly and negatively affected economic growth and industrial output. Furthermore, while the results show that oil price shocks have a significant positive effect on inflation, the effect is also positive on interest rate and exchange rate, but it is not significant. The results of impulse response function show a negative effect on output growth, it is positive on inflation, but mild and indeterminate on industrial production, interest rate and exchange rate. Based on findings in this study, the Renaissance theory and the Dutch Disease theories of economic growth apply to the Nigerian economy. The policy recommendations include the isolation of the country’s real sector from the vagaries of oil price volatility and the pursue of economic diversification to reduce the over-dependence on oil.

scholarly journals World Oil Price, Economic Growth, Inflation & Interest Rate Relationships in Tunisia

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassen Guenichi ◽  
Salwa Benamou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Oil Price

How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-284
Author(s):  
Ranjan Kumar Mohanty ◽  
Sidheswar Panda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Impact

The study investigates the macroeconomic effects of public debt in India during 1980–2017 using a structural vector autoregression framework. The objective is to examine the impact of public debt on the interest rate, investment, inflation and economic growth in India. The results of the impulse response functions show that public debt has an adverse impact on economic growth but a positive impact on the long-term interest rate in the short run and a mixed effect (both negative and positive) on investment and inflation. We also find that domestic debt has a more adverse impact on the economy than external debt. The estimated variance decomposition analysis finds that much of the variation in selected macro variables are explained by public debt and growth in India. This study suggests that public debt especially domestic debt should be controlled and channelled productively to have a favourable impact on the economy. JEL Classification: H63, O40, C40

To Raise the Golden Anchor? Financial Crises and Uncertainty During the Great Depression

1999 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 624-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Peter Ferderer ◽  
David A. Zalewski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Interwar Period ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility

This study examines the interplay between financial crises, uncertainty, and economic growth during the interwar period. Comparing the experiences of ten countries, we provide evidence that reductions in the credibility of a country's commitment to the gold standard generated capital flight and higher interest rate volatility. This volatility, in turn, was inversely correlated with economic growth. These results suggest that financial crises helped propagate the Great Depression, in part, by increasing uncertainty.

Interest Rate–Economic Growth Nexus Under Currency Board Operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-24
Author(s):  
Martinianus Tshimologo Tibinyane ◽  
Teresia Kaulihowa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Currency Board

This paper analyses the effect of the prime interest rate as a monetary policy instrument to stimulate economic growth in Namibia, a small open economy that is constrained by currency board operations. A Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was used for the period 1980–2019. The result shows that Namibia’s prime interest rate has no significant effect on economic growth. This finding remains robust and consistent when impulse response function and variance decomposition are employed. The impulse response function indicates a shock on the prime interest rate exhibits an inverse relationship. However, this effect is insignificant in both short and long-run scenarios. The variance decomposition indicates that the prime interest rate has a strongly exogenous impact, implying it has a weak influence on GDP growth. Policy implication indicates that small open economies under currency board operations need to identify different policy responses to circumvent external shocks and addresses their development needs.

Oil Price—Macroeconomy Causality: Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
China And India ◽  
Cross Country

This paper investigates whether changes in oil prices could explain cross-country variations in economic growth. The sample included WANA countries, China and India. The findings indicated bidirectional oil price-economy causality in the WANA region’s oil-exporting countries. In addition, a unidirectional causality running from changing oil prices to growth was found in the WANA region. However, there was no clear oil price-economy causal relationship for non-oil WANA countries, China and India. The study recommended diversification and fuel pricing reforms to create a robust fiscal balanced and sustained economic growth.

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