Oil price change and Economy relationship :A global review using a nonlinear dynamic model for MENA Countries

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in a selection of MENA countries. The oil price shock is identified by assuming that an individual country's performance does not affect world oil prices. We put particular emphasis on the time-varying relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic variables and implement their approach in a Time-Varying Structural VAR model (TV-SVAR) framework. The main findings are that the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks have evolved over time in MENA countries. Interestingly, however, we do not find a lot of heterogeneity among the MENA countries they consider, even though their list includes both net oil exporters (Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Saudia Arabia) and net oil importers (Turkey and Tunisia)

Mitigation strategies to enhance the ambition of the nationally determined contributions : an analysis of 4 European countries with the decarbonization wedges methodology

Greater efforts are needed to bridge the emission gap between Nationally Determined Contributions and the objective to limit climate change below 2°C. This paper focuses on four European-Union countries: Germany, France, Poland and UK that represent on aggregate 55% of current EU emissions. It analyses national mitigation strategies produced by national research teams in the framework of the COP21_RIPPLES project and compatible with a long-term objective leading to a well below 2°C target either as part of an ambition in 2030 limited to that of the NDCs, or as part of more ambitious early action. We use the decarbonization wedges methodology, an advanced index decomposition analysis methodology for quantifying the contribution of different mitigation strategies. This makes it possible to assess the priorities for action to strengthen the NDCs. The article also highlights the impact sectoral growth dynamics have on the emission trajectories and the resulting necessary mitigation efforts.

A New Hybrid Wavelet-Neural Network Approach for Forecasting Electricity

This study investigates the performance of a novel neural network technique in the problem of price forecasting. To improve the prediction accuracy using each model’s unique features, this research proposes a hybrid approach that combines the -factor GARMA process, empirical wavelet transform and the local linear wavelet neural network (LLWNN) methods, to form the GARMA-WLLWNN process. In order to verify the validity of the model and the algorithm, the performance of the proposed model is evaluated using data from Polish electricity markets, and it is compared with the dual generalized long memory -factor GARMA-G-GARCH model and the individual WLLWNN. The empirical results demonstrated the proposed hybrid model can achieve a better predicting performance and prove that is the most suitable electricity market forecasting technique.

more Sustainable buildings, the more Sustainable societies

Different sustainability standards were applied to implement the concept of sustainable development around the world. Since the residential and services sector is highly dependent on the buildings and as one of the main parts of energy demand and the most important factors of development of life-quality and environmental issues. With the importance of the buildings being mentioned; sustainability standards are significant issues to be executed on the buildings to reach the mentioned goals in those sectors, and since there are various types of these standards, evaluation is essential to choose which is more reliable and efficient to reach the sustainability-based goals. This paper is intended to investigate different building assessment standards. The evaluating methods and scoring mechanisms are based on the energy category as one of the primary assessment measures. Finally, the methods of building sustainability assessment have been compared in these Criteria dimensions: ecological, social, and economical.

The Dynamic Effects of Renewable Energy on Economic Growth : The Case of China

This paper estimates the possible effects of renewable energy consumption on the economic growth of the major renewable energy- consuming country in the world. The country has taken the lead in renewable energy in the past decade, so the paper chooses the top renewable energy-consuming country China to explain the growth process between 1990 and 2019. Using time-series analysis techniques, this study Estimation and testing result from the different cointegration methods in the context of China. The results confirm the evidence of long-run dynamics between economic growth, and traditional and energy-related inputs. Findings from long-run output elasticities indicate that renewable energy consumption has a significant positive impact on economic output. The findings suggest that governments, energy planners, international cooperation agencies and associated bodies must act together in increasing renewable energy investment for low carbon growth in most of these economies.

On the (un)successful deployment of renewable energies: territorial context matters. A conceptual framework and an empirical analysis of biogas projects

Given the goal set by the French government to open 1000 biogas plants by 2020, we believe it is important to investigate the factors linked to the success or failure of anaerobic digestion projects, especially as the inherent challenges mean that there are barely 300 in operation today. We thus developed a conceptual framework to help us to study territorial energy transition projects which we applied to an empirical analysis of the biogas production process. We conducted a quantitative study (logit model with 91 anaerobic digestion projects) and a qualitative study (49 semi-structured interviews and 455 articles from the regional daily press) to identify and understand the processes that anaerobic digestion projects go through for a successful outcome or, conversely, to ultimately fail. Our findings indicate that projects may be abandoned or interrupted due to the presence of a group of objectors who are often wary of such projects and do not trust the project leaders. Lack of anticipation and early dialogue tend to inhibit success. Furthermore, social acceptance appears to be correlated with proximity to the biogas plants but not to the size of the digester. Finally, operating and/or investment subsidies are seen to have a positive and significant effect on a project’s success. In this study, we highlight the need to implement place-based policies rather than one-size-fits-all policies to develop renewable energy in specific regions.

Term Structure of Natural Gas Futures Contracts

This paper considers the possibility of the persistence of quasi rents in the US natural gas industry. We compare the term structure of gas and oil futures, and test for cointegration between gas and oil prices. The results indicate that natural gas yield curves are consistently higher than those of oil, reflecting possible higher risk premiums. The results also indicate that gas prices are cointegrated with and are driven by oil prices. This is consistent with the notion of oil price serving as market indicator for gas contracts with potential quasi-rents. Our findings are important in supporting the view that natural gas markets may maintain quasi-rents, despite evidence of long-term trends in improving market efficiency.

On the Impact of Wind Feed-in and Interconnections on Electricity Price in Germany

In this paper, we explore carry out an empirical analysis for Germany, as a country with high penetration of wind energy, to investigate the interaction between the well-known merit-order effect, i.e., falling spot price levels as well as highly fluctuating spot prices and the European electricity grids inteconnections,i.e., market coupling.Our main empirical findings suggest that wind power in-feed decreases electricity spot price level but increases spot prices volatility. Furthermore, the relationship between wind power and spot electricity prices can be strongly impacted by European electricity grids interconnection which behaves like a safety valve lowering volatility and limiting the price decrease. Therefore, the impacts of wind generated electricity on electricity spot markets areless clearly pronounced in interconnected systems

TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF PRICE INTERRELATIONS IN MAJOR U.S. FOSSIL FUELS MARKETS

The objective of this study is to analyze price movements and interrelations of U.S natural gas, oil, and coal prices, as three main fossil fuels in the US. Structural break were identified in both natural gas and oil prices in February of 2009, at the peak of U.S. financial crisis. Both natural gas and oil are shown to be weak substitutes for coal, while the opposite relationships are not found. Stronger U.S. dollar led to lower fossil fuel prices, while only oil prices have been shown to depend on movement of income per capita and stock market.

THREE INVESTMENT SCENARIOS FOR FUTURE NUCLEAR REACTORS IN EUROPE

While nuclear power may experience a technological breakthrough in Europe with Generation IV nuclear reactors within a few decades (2040), several events and drivers could question this possibility, e.g. the Fukushima accident, climate issues and liberalization of the electricity market.This article analyzes how the conditions necessary for their industrial development from now up to 2040 can be either favorable or detrimental to future nuclear reactors compared with other technologies and according to four main investment drivers: 1) technical change, 2) policy, 3) market, and 4) power company drivers.Twenty-four scenarios have been identified through structural analysis, with only three proving to be favorable to the development of future nuclear reactors.