Oil Price—Macroeconomy Causality: Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
China And India ◽  
Cross Country

This paper investigates whether changes in oil prices could explain cross-country variations in economic growth. The sample included WANA countries, China and India. The findings indicated bidirectional oil price-economy causality in the WANA region’s oil-exporting countries. In addition, a unidirectional causality running from changing oil prices to growth was found in the WANA region. However, there was no clear oil price-economy causal relationship for non-oil WANA countries, China and India. The study recommended diversification and fuel pricing reforms to create a robust fiscal balanced and sustained economic growth.

scholarly journals Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Jeyhun I. Mikayilov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Vugar Muradov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

The study analyzes the impact of economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and oil price on renewable energy consumption in Azerbaijan for the data spanning from 1992 to 2015, utilizing structural time series modeling approach. Estimation results reveal that there is a long-run positive and statistically significant effect of economic growth on renewable energy consumption and a negative impact of oil price in the case of Azerbaijan, for the studied period. The negative impact of oil price on renewable energy consumption can be seen as an indication of comfort brought by the environment of higher oil prices, which delays the transition from conventional energy sources to renewable energy consumption for the studied country case. Also, we find that the effect of CO2 on renewable energy consumption is negative but statistically insignificant. The results of this article might be beneficial for policymakers and support the current literature for further research for oil-rich developing countries.

scholarly journals PENGARUH HARGA MINYAK DUNIA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, INFLASI, DAN PENGANGGURAN DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-24
Author(s):  
Sodik Dwi Purnomo ◽  
Istiqomah Istiqomah ◽  
Lilis Siti Badriah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Analysis Technique

The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of oil prices fluctuations to Indonesia macroeconomics that is economic growth, inflation, and unemployment from 1988 to 2018. The data analysis technique uses Vector Autoregressive (VAR). The result showed that oil price fluctuations in the amount of one standard deviation will gives a positive influence to economic growth, inflation rate, and unemployment which each has 0,001 percent, 0,001 percent, and 0,002 percent.Keyword : World Oil Prices, Economic Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment Abstrak Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui bagaimana pengaruh fluktuasi harga minyak dunia terhadap variabel makroekonomi Indonesia yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi, dan angka pengangguran dari tahun 1988 sampai dengan 2018. Teknik analisis data menggunaan Vector Autoregression (VAR). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa guncangan yang terjadi pada fluktuasi harga minyak dunia sebesar satu standar deviasi akan memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi serta pengangguran yaitu masing-masing sebesar 0,001 persen, 0,001 persen, dan 0,002 persen.Kata Kunci : Harga Minyak Dunia, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Inflasi, dan Pengangguran

scholarly journals Impact of FDI inflow, crude oil prices, and economic growth on CO2 emission in Tunisia: Symmetric and asymmetric analysis through ARDL and NARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Tarek Ghazouani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real GDP per capita, FDI inflow, and crude oil price on CO2 emission in Tunisia for the 1972–2016 period. Using the cointegration tests, namely ARDL and NARDL bound test, the results show that the variables are associated in a long run relationship. Long run estimates from both approach confirms the validity of ECK hypothesis for Tunisia. Symmetric analysis reveals that economic growth and the price of crude oil adversely affect the environment, in contrast to FDI inflows that reduce CO2 emissions in the long run. Whereas the asymmetric analysis show that increase in crude oil price harm the environment and decrease in crude oil price have positive repercussions on the environment. The causality analysis suggests that a bilateral link exists between economic growth and carbon emissions and a one-way causality ranges from FDI inflows and crude oil prices to carbon emissions. Thus, some policy recommendations have been formulated to help Tunisia reduce carbon emissions and support economic development.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of Oil Prices in the Nigerian Construction and Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Peter Uchenna Okoye ◽  
Evelyn Ndifreke Igbo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

Aims: The continuous reverberation of unstable global oil price change has caused this study to examine the effect of oil price fluctuation on the construction and economic growths in Nigeria. Study Design: Data for the analysis were extracted from different National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publications on the construction sector and economy (GDP); and OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2017 and BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017 on oil price from 1981 to 2016. Place and Duration of Study: The study was done in Nigeria between October 2017 and February 2018. Methodology: The study applied different econometric techniques including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), the generalized least squares (GLS) regression (DF-GLS), and the Phillips-Perron (PP)  for unit root test; Johansen’s cointegration test and Error Correction Model (ECM) for long-run equilibrium relationship; Granger causality test for direction of causation or influence; as well as carrying different validation tests. Results: It was found that oil price fluctuation does not have any causal influence on the construction growth nor economic growth; rather it is only the economic growth that influences the construction growth without feedback. It further revealed the existence of unstable long-run equilibrium contemporaneous relationship between the variables. It showed that the deviation from the equilibrium level in the current year will be corrected by 8.8% in the following year and that it will take about 11 years and 4 months to restore the long-run equilibrium state on the economic growth should there be any shock from the construction growth and oil prices fluctuation in the system. Conclusion: The study concluded that though construction sector and general economy may be sensitive to the oil price change, their growth cannot be said to have been influenced or caused by the fluctuation in oil prices. On this strength, the subsisting oil price position in determining the economic trends in Nigeria is challenged. It then calls for new thoughts and strategies towards monitoring the oil prices and economic growth in Nigeria which may culminate in paying less attention to oil price changes and focusing more on other economic variables that trigger changes in the economy and development of Nigeria.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICES ON INVESTMENT IN CROATIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-117
Author(s):  
Marina Lolić Čipčić ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Reaction ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Var Analysis ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
The Impact

If we look at economic growth as a function of labour and capital then, aside from the labour force, investment is a key determinant of capital accumulation and, accordingly, a prerequisite for economic growth and prosperity. During the analysed period (1996:Q1-2015:Q4) investment in Croatia demonstrated pro-cyclically behaviour but showed a higher level of fluctuation then personal consumption or GDP. The aim of the paper is to examine the influence of oil prices on investment during the analysed period using Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and to determine the nature of their relationship by permuting four different oil price indicators. The results indicate that investment initially react positively to the growth of oil prices after which their reaction to oil price growth becomes negative (and more pronounced than the initial positive reaction). Contribution of oil price changes to investment fluctuations were also found. Keywords: investment, oil prices

scholarly journals Oil price fluctuations and economic growth: the case of MENA countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mamdouh Abdelmoula Mohamed Abdelsalam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price and economic growth. Further, a separate analysis for each MENA oil-export and oil-import countries is conducted. Furthermore, it studies to what extent the quality of institutions will change the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth. Design/methodology/approach As the effect of oil price fluctuations is not the same over different business cycles or oil price levels, the paper uses a panel quantile regression approach with other linear models such as fixed effects, random effects and panel generalized method of moments. The panel quantile methodology is an extension of traditional linear models and it has the advantage of exploring the relationship over the different quantiles of the whole distribution. Findings The paper can summarize results as following: changes in oil price and its volatility have an opposite effect for each oil-export and oil-import countries; for the former, changes in oil prices have a positive impact but the volatility a negative effect. While for the latter, changes in oil prices have a negative effect but volatility a positive effect. Further, the impact of oil price changes and their uncertainty are different across different quantiles. Furthermore, there is evidence about the asymmetric effect of the oil price changes on economic growth. Finally, accounting for institutional quality led to a reduction in the impact of oil price changes on economic growth. Originality/value The study concludes more detailed results on the impact of oil prices on gross domestic product growth. Thus, it can be used as a decision-support tool for policymakers.

Do environmental taxes impede economic growth? A comparison between China and India

2020 ◽  
pp. 2050023
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad ◽  
Ramiz Ur Rehman ◽  
Muhammad Akram Naseem ◽  
Rizwan Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Data Bank ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
The Novel ◽  
China And India ◽  
Environmental Friendly ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
Adjusted Net Savings ◽  
Oecd Data

The aim of this study is to determine the direction of causality between economic growth and environmentally oriented taxes between two countries, China and India. Further, it investigates which country is leading in environmental protection race by imposing and collecting more environmental taxes. The novel element of this study is that this is the first study comparing two economic rivals by environment taxes. The dataset consists of environmental taxes and its proportion to GDP and total taxes, transportation taxes, GDP and adjusted net savings for China and India. The data are taken from the organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data bank from 2009 to 2018. The study utilizes the Granger causality to test the causal relationship between environment taxes and economic growth. The findings of the study posit that the imposition of environmental taxes will not only make the big economies environmental friendly but with sustainable economic growth.

Chapter II. The Home Economy

1980 ◽  
Vol 91 ◽  
pp. 27-42
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run

Our general assessment of the prospects for the economy over the next two years has not changed greatly since we reported last November. There have been further sharp increases in oil prices, which lead us to raise the forecast increases of the OPEC average oil price to 60 per cent for 1980 and 20 per cent for 1981 (as against 36 per cent and 15 per cent respectively in November). And this year there has been the steel strike. These events, and other adjustments suggest that the various objectives of economic policy, such as economic growth and the reduction of inflation and unemployment will be missed by a somewhat larger margin. Ironically the balance of payments will be improved in the short run because the effect of the strengthening of the pound reduces the deficit initially (the inverse of the J curve effect which occurs when the pound falls).

scholarly journals An ARDL Approach on Crude Oil Price and Macroeconomic Variables

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-73
Author(s):  
Seuk Yen Phoong ◽  
Seuk Wai Phoong
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Ardl Approach

Objective - The removal of fuel subsidies by the Malaysian government in 2014 has been implement with the managed float system for fuel prices. Methodology/Technique - This study investigates the impact of the managed floating system of crude oil prices on the Malaysian economy using ARDL approach by looking at macroeconomic variables such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment rates. Findings - The results show that all of the variables have short lived relationship with oil prices whereby inflation and economic growth are positively related to oil prices. However, unemployment rate has a negative relationship with the changes of WTI crude oil prices. Novelty - The major input in the economy of Malaysia contributes to a positive relationship between inflation and oil prices, whilst the contribution of Malaysia being an oil-producing country results in the positive relationship of economic growth and oil price. Likewise, as oil prices are high, the increase in demand results in increase in job opportunities. Lastly, the correlation test shows that inflation and economic growth have a high positive correlation while unemployment rate has a low negative correlation with oil price. Type of Paper: Empirical. Keywords: ARDL; Crude Oil Price; GDP; Inflation; Unemployment. JEL Classification: E10, E30, E39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.1(8)

scholarly journals Research on the Impact of International Oil Prices on the Economy of Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03006
Author(s):  
Jiuxia Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Income Determination ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In the process of Russian economic development, the oil industry is one of the important pillar industries. More than 50% of the total revenue of the Russian government comes from the oil and gas industry. Oil and oil products exports account for about 56.9% of Russia’s total export[1]. So Russia’s economy is inextricably linked to oil prices. Rosneft’s role in budgetary revenue sources is growing. In the development of the world economy, the change of international oil price affects the development of the Russian economy. This paper reviews the relevant theories about the relationship between oil price and Russia’s economic growth. Besides, the short-term and long-term effects of oil price fluctuation on Russian economy are analyzed with Keynes’s income determination theory and “resource Curse” theory[2] respectively. In addition, the granger causality test is used to analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of oil price and the change of Russian GDP. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis. Firstly, oil price rise is beneficial to Russian economic growth in the short term, but will hinder Russia’s economic long-term development. Secondly, the fluctuation of oil price is the granger cause of the change of Russian GDP. However, the change of Russian GDP is not the granger cause of the fluctuation of oil price.

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