Scaling and Adaptive Asset Allocation

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Time Diversification ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
Time Specific ◽  
Mean Variance

In this article, the author reminds us again that return mean and variance are not enough. Appropriate investment risk-bearing scales with surplus over future withdrawal commitments, as well as with investment return characteristics. This framework provides for the integration of financial planning and investment decision-making. Its time-varying risk aversion with the ratio of investments to surplus also provides an opportunity for use of dynamic strategies, though speculative bubbles require compensating inputs to avoid excessive allocation extremes. Appropriate risk-bearing can also scale with functions of shortfall probability to deal with time-specific funding requirements. The probability of avoiding shortfall from an initial surplus over longer time horizons may scale close to the square root of time, creating an illusion of time diversification. In contrast, from an initial surplus deficit, minimizing shortfall probability is akin to playing Russian roulette. Allocations based on minimized shortfall probability can be usefully blended with mean–variance allocations, especially for 5- to 15-year time horizons.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF ASSET CLASSES THROUGH THE BUSINESS CYCLE

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrius Dzikevičius ◽  
Jaroslav Vetrov
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Significant Information ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Risk Characteristics ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
The Business Cycle

This study was driven by the dissimilar performance characteristics displayed by asset classes over the business cycle. The authors aim to explore assets classes on the grounds of a scientific literature review and a statistical analysis. Business cycles are divided into four stages to explore broad movements in returns of asset classes and a possible existence of asymmetrical effects of determinants within stages. Six main asset classes were analysed: US stocks, EAFE stocks, Bonds, Gold, Real Estate and Commodities. Monthly data from February 1976 to August 2011 were used for the study. The article combines business cycle and asset allocation theories by adding valuable information about performance of asset classes during different phases of the business cycle. Using the OECD Composite Leading Indicator as a business cycle measure, the authors demonstrate that different assets classes have different return/risk characteristics over the business cycle. The article demonstrates how to use the business cycle approach for investment decision-making. The OECD Composite Leading Indicator can provide significant information on market expectations and the future outlook; hence, results of this study can help every investor improve his/her performance and risk management.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Quantitative vs. Qualitative Inputs to Analyst Risk Forecasts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khrystyna Bochkay ◽  
Peter Joos
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Firm Risk ◽  
Qualitative Information ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Risk Forecasting ◽  
Disclosure Tone

Risk forecasting is crucial for informed investment decision-making. Moreover, the salience of investment risk increases during economically uncertain times. In this paper, we study how sell-side analysts form expectations of firm risk, under different macroeconomic conditions (low versus high uncertainty) and by distinguishing between quantitative and qualitative information inputs. We find that analysts jointly consider quantitative and qualitative information but that their reliance on qualitative information - in particular, disclosure tone - increases when macroeconomic uncertainty is high. We also find that analysts mostly rely on disclosure tone when it contradicts quantitative information. These findings highlight how narrative disclosures can provide context for quantitative information. Finally, we find that analysts' specific use of quantitative/qualitative information improves their forecasts as predictors of firm risk. Together, our results illuminate analysts' risk forecasting process - what information they use and how.

scholarly journals Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Liu ◽  
Ting-Hua Yi ◽  
Cui-Qin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Qualitative Change ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Risk Warning ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Information Gap ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
Engineering Projects

Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

The emergence of Spanish REITs

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 495-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jufri Marzuki ◽  
Graeme Newell
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Asset Portfolio

PurposeSpanish real estate investment trusts (REITs) emerged as an important and rapidly expanding property investment vehicle, against the backdrop of improving Spain macro-economic fundamentals and commercial property market. This sees Spanish REITs being the 3rd largest REIT market in Europe, offering access to important Iberian and European property assets, with the added benefits of transparency, governance and liquidity. The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance, risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of Spanish REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio over August 2014–February 2018.Design/methodology/approachUsing monthly total returns, the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification potential of Spanish REITs over August 2014–February 2018 are assessed. Asset allocation diagrams are used to assess the role of Spanish REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio.FindingsSpanish REITs delivered strong risk-adjusted returns compared to stocks over August 2014–February 2018, but with limited portfolio diversification benefits. Compared to bonds, Spanish REITs offered competitive risk-adjusted returns and excellent diversification benefits. Importantly, this sees Spanish REITs as strongly contributing to the Spanish mixed-asset portfolio across the portfolio risk spectrum.Practical implicationsThe 2012 Spanish REIT regulatory changes have been pivotal in providing a supportive environment for Spanish REITs’ growth. Spanish REITs are now a significant market in a European context. The results highlight the major role of Spanish REITs in a Spanish mixed-asset portfolio. The strong risk-adjusted performance of Spanish REITs compared to stocks sees Spanish REITs contributing to the mixed-asset portfolio across the portfolio risk spectrum. This is particularly important, as an increasing number of investors have utilised Spanish REITs to obtain their property exposure in a liquid format in recent years.Originality/valueThis paper is the first published empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance of Spanish REITs, and the role of Spanish REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio. This research enables empirically validated, more informed and practical property investment decision-making regarding the strategic role of Spanish REITs in a portfolio.

scholarly journals FACTORS AFFECTING INVESTMENT DECISIONS AMONG LISTED FIRMS IN THE NAIROBI SECURITIES EXCHANGE

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-142
Author(s):  
Prince Worzie
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Market Information ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Descriptive Survey

The importance of investment decision-making cannot be overstated since many of the factors that result in a firm’s success or failure are directly tied to the choices of decisions made. When wrong investment decisions are made, they are not easily reversible and if the firm persists or reverses them they may lead to bigger losses. It is for this reason that this research sought to investigate factors affecting investment decisions among listed firms in the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The study focused on the following factors: financial market information, investment risk, investor’s financial knowledge, and firms’ profitability to establish whether they influence investment decisions. The study employed a descriptive survey design and targeted 178 finance managers of the 67 firms listed on the NSE. Stratified and purposive sampling techniques were adopted in this study and a questionnaire was used to collect data. The researcher employed descriptive and inferential statistics to analyze data collected from the study. The results were analyzed and presented using tables. Based on the results, the researcher concludes that the four independent variables; financial market information, investment risk, firms’ profitability and investor’s financial knowledgesignificantly influence investment decisions of firms listed on the NSE.

The significance and performance of Singapore REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme Newell ◽  
Anh Khoi Pham ◽  
Joseph Ooi
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Asset Portfolio ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
And Performance

Purpose – REITs have taken on increased significance in Asia in recent years, with Singapore REITs (S-REITs) becoming an important property investment vehicle since 2002. The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance, risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of S-REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio context in Singapore over 2003-2013. The post-GFC recovery of S-REITs is also assessed. Design/methodology/approach – Using monthly total returns, the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of S-REITs over 2003-2013 is assessed, with efficient frontiers and asset allocation diagrams used to assess the role of S-REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio. Sub-period analyses are conducted to assess the post-GFC recovery of S-REITs. Findings – S-REITs delivered strong risk-adjusted returns, being the best-performed asset class, but with little portfolio diversification benefit over 2003-2013. Whilst taking on reduced risk, but with less portfolio diversification benefits in recent years, S-REITs are seen to be robust relative to the other major Singapore asset classes; contributing significantly across the risk spectrum; particularly in the post-GFC period, where S-REITs have been the best-performed asset class in Singapore. Practical implications – The results highlight the important strategic role of S-REITs in a Singapore mixed-asset portfolio. The strong risk-adjusted performance has highlighted the robustness of S-REITs, with S-REITs contributing to the mixed-asset portfolio across the portfolio risk spectrum; particularly in the post-GFC period. This robustness highlights the ongoing strategic role of S-REITs in a Singapore mixed-asset portfolio, as well as the ongoing development of S-REITs as an important pan-Asia hub for REITs. Originality/value – This paper is the first published empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance of S-REITs and the role of S-REITs in a portfolio. Given the increased significance of REITs in Asia, this research enables empirically validated, more informed and practical property investment decision-making regarding the role of S-REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio and S-REIT performance in a post-GFC context.

scholarly journals Behavioural Finance; a Concept or Catalyst Explaining Distortions in Investment Decision

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
George Obeng
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Goal Congruence ◽  
Behavioural Finance ◽  
Study Objective ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Distinct Concept ◽  
Classical Models ◽  
Psychological Influence

Behavioural finance, recent development, challenging the classical models, explains investment risk at the instance of irrationality of cognitive psychological influence and phenomenon in arriving at investment decision. Claimants of business financial assets make choices that satisfy their interest best dependent on relevant and reliable financial information, communicated to potential investors. Distortions in the processes may lead to investment failure, and taking responsibility is severally assigned. The study investigates how behavioural finance is a distinct concept and theory as cognitive psychology or diagnostic phenomenon in distortions in investment decision. Literature is perused to address the study objective. In the contemplation of the study behavioural finance may deviate as a unique concept on its own in investment decision making, but catalyst and arbiter for goal congruence to be achieved at any stage in the decision process.    

scholarly journals The Effect of Financial Literacy on Investment Decision Making in Southern Lebanon

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Hassan Alaaraj ◽  
Ahmed Bakri
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Literacy ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
South Lebanon ◽  
Convenience Sampling ◽  
Spss Software ◽  
Risk Investment

This study examines the effect of financial Literacy on investment decision making among investors in South Lebanon. Financial literacy is expressed in terms of knowledge and awareness while investors’ decision-making is described as the act of investors and the way they interpret, anticipate, investigate, and assess the steps and transaction for decision making. This includes investment risk, investment decision model and process. To achieve the research objective, a quantitative approach was applied in which 150 self-administered questionnaires were collected using convenience sampling. The sample includes customers of four different Banks in South Lebanon. The data was analyzed using SPSS software. Descriptive statistics were identified and proposed hypotheses were tested using Pearson correlation and multi-regression analysis. Results showed a positive significant relationship between financial literacy and investment decision making. Future studies are encouraged to expand the research to other regions in Lebanon over a longer time horizon in addition to applying other variables.

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