scholarly journals Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 7161-7190
Author(s):  
Giacomo Albi ◽  
◽  
Lorenzo Pareschi ◽  
Mattia Zanella ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Uncertain Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Difficult Problem ◽  
Progressive Relaxation ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
Social Activities ◽  
Feedback Controls ◽  
Home Work ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Impact

<abstract><p>After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a SEIRD compartmental model with a social structure based on the age of individuals and stochastic inputs that account for data uncertainty, the effects of containment measures are introduced via an optimal control problem dependent on specific social activities, such as home, work, school, etc. Through a short time horizon approximation, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on social activities that allow us to assess the impact of selective relaxation of containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. After analyzing the effects of the various controls, results from different scenarios concerning the first wave of the epidemic in some major countries, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations have been considered for each country. Numerical simulations show that a careful strategy of progressive relaxation of containment measures, such as that adopted by some governments, may be able to keep the epidemic under control by restarting various productive activities.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals Relaxing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Albi ◽  
Lorenzo Pareschi ◽  
Mattia Zanella
Keyword(s):  
Uncertain Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Difficult Problem ◽  
Feedback Controls ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Specific Contact ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Impact

After an initial phase characterized by the introduction of timely and drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments are preparing to relax such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a compartmental model with a social structure, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on the social activities that allow to assess the impact of a selective relaxation of the containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for all countries considered have been used. Results from different scenarios in some of the major countries where the epidemic is ongoing, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed.

scholarly journals Alternative Work Arrangements

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 631-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Mas ◽  
Amanda Pallais
Keyword(s):  
Working Hours ◽  
Work Conditions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Alternative Work Arrangements ◽  
Work Arrangements ◽  
The Past ◽  
Family Friendly ◽  
Home Work ◽  
Alternative Work ◽  
The Impact

Alternative work arrangements, defined both by working conditions and by workers’ relationship to their employers, are heterogeneous and common in the United States. This article reviews the literature on workers’ preferences over these arrangements, inputs to firms’ decisions to offer them, and the impact of regulation. It also highlights several descriptive facts: The typical worker is in a job where almost none of the tasks can be performed from home, work arrangements have been relatively stable over the past 20 years, work conditions vary substantially with education, and jobs with schedule or location flexibility are less family friendly on average. This last fact explains why women are not more likely to have schedule or location flexibility and seem to largely reduce their working hours to get more family-friendly arrangements.

scholarly journals Control with uncertain data of socially structured compartmental epidemic models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Albi ◽  
Lorenzo Pareschi ◽  
Mattia Zanella
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Uncertain Data ◽  
Compartmental Models ◽  
Global Strategy ◽  
Peak Reduction ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Instantaneous Approximation ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of forced external actions to reduce the impact of the disease. In addition, data are often incomplete and heterogeneous, so a high degree of uncertainty must naturally be incorporated into the models. In this work we address both these aspects, through an optimal control formulation of the epidemiological model in presence of uncertain data. After the introduction of the optimal control problem, we formulate an instantaneous approximation of the control that allows us to derive new feedback controlled compartmental models capable of describing the epidemic peak reduction. The need for long-term interventions shows that alternative actions based on the social structure of the system can be as effective as the more expensive global strategy. The importance of the timing and intensity of interventions is particularly relevant in the case of uncertain parameters on the actual number of infected people. Simulations related to data from the recent COVID-19 outbreak in Italy are presented and discussed.

scholarly journals Control with uncertain data of socially structured compartmental epidemic models

2021 ◽  
Vol 82 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Albi ◽  
Lorenzo Pareschi ◽  
Mattia Zanella
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Social Structure ◽  
Uncertain Data ◽  
Compartmental Models ◽  
Global Strategy ◽  
Peak Reduction ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of forced external actions to reduce the impact of the disease. The importance of social structure, such as the age dependence that proved essential in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, must be considered, and in addition, the available data are often incomplete and heterogeneous, so a high degree of uncertainty must be incorporated into the model from the beginning. In this work we address these aspects, through an optimal control formulation of a socially structured epidemic model in presence of uncertain data. After the introduction of the optimal control problem, we formulate an instantaneous approximation of the control that allows us to derive new feedback controlled compartmental models capable of describing the epidemic peak reduction. The need for long-term interventions shows that alternative actions based on the social structure of the system can be as effective as the more expensive global strategy. The timing and intensity of interventions, however, is particularly relevant in the case of uncertain parameters on the actual number of infected people. Simulations related to data from the first wave of the recent COVID-19 outbreak in Italy are presented and discussed.

Demonstrating Nutrient Cost Gradients: A Brooklyn Case Study

2014 ◽  
Vol 84 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 244-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Karp ◽  
Gary Wong ◽  
Marguerite Orsi
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Energy Content ◽  
Food Selection ◽  
The United States ◽  
United States Department ◽  
Micronutrient Deficiencies ◽  
Caloric Density ◽  
Low Income Families ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Introduction: Foods dense in micronutrients are generally more expensive than those with higher energy content. These cost-differentials may put low-income families at risk of diminished micronutrient intake. Objectives: We sought to determine differences in the cost for iron, folate, and choline in foods available for purchase in a low-income community when assessed for energy content and serving size. Methods: Sixty-nine foods listed in the menu plans provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for low-income families were considered, in 10 domains. The cost and micronutrient content for-energy and per-serving of these foods were determined for the three micronutrients. Exact Kruskal-Wallis tests were used for comparisons of energy costs; Spearman rho tests for comparisons of micronutrient content. Ninety families were interviewed in a pediatric clinic to assess the impact of food cost on food selection. Results: Significant differences between domains were shown for energy density with both cost-for-energy (p < 0.001) and cost-per-serving (p < 0.05) comparisons. All three micronutrient contents were significantly correlated with cost-for-energy (p < 0.01). Both iron and choline contents were significantly correlated with cost-per-serving (p < 0.05). Of the 90 families, 38 (42 %) worried about food costs; 40 (44 %) had chosen foods of high caloric density in response to that fear, and 29 of 40 families experiencing both worry and making such food selection. Conclusion: Adjustments to USDA meal plans using cost-for-energy analysis showed differentials for both energy and micronutrients. These differentials were reduced using cost-per-serving analysis, but were not eliminated. A substantial proportion of low-income families are vulnerable to micronutrient deficiencies.

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