scholarly journals Relaxing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty

Author(s):  
Giacomo Albi ◽  
Lorenzo Pareschi ◽  
Mattia Zanella

After an initial phase characterized by the introduction of timely and drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments are preparing to relax such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a compartmental model with a social structure, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on the social activities that allow to assess the impact of a selective relaxation of the containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for all countries considered have been used. Results from different scenarios in some of the major countries where the epidemic is ongoing, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed.

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 7161-7190
Author(s):  
Giacomo Albi ◽  
◽  
Lorenzo Pareschi ◽  
Mattia Zanella ◽  
◽  
...  

<abstract><p>After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a SEIRD compartmental model with a social structure based on the age of individuals and stochastic inputs that account for data uncertainty, the effects of containment measures are introduced via an optimal control problem dependent on specific social activities, such as home, work, school, etc. Through a short time horizon approximation, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on social activities that allow us to assess the impact of selective relaxation of containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. After analyzing the effects of the various controls, results from different scenarios concerning the first wave of the epidemic in some major countries, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations have been considered for each country. Numerical simulations show that a careful strategy of progressive relaxation of containment measures, such as that adopted by some governments, may be able to keep the epidemic under control by restarting various productive activities.</p></abstract>


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 360-360
Author(s):  
Barbara Hodgdon ◽  
Jen Wong

Abstract Filial caregivers (e.g., individuals caring for a parent or parent-in-law) are a part of the growing number of family caregivers in midlife and late adulthood. The responsibilities that filial caregivers navigate in midlife and late adulthood may expose them to multiple types of discrimination that may decrease their physical health, though this relationship has been understudied. As numbers of family caregivers grow, it is important to examine the potential vulnerability of younger and older filial caregivers’ physical health in the context of discrimination. Informed by the life course perspective, this study compares the physical health of younger (aged 34-64) and older (aged 64-74) filial caregivers who experience discrimination. Filial caregivers (N=270; Mage=53; SD=9.37) from the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS-II) Survey reported on demographics, family caregiving, daily discrimination, self-rated physical health, and chronic conditions via questionnaires and phone interviews. Regression analyses showed no differences between younger and older adults’ self-rated physical health or average chronic conditions. However, moderation analyses revealed that younger filial caregivers who experienced greater discrimination reported poorer self-rated physical health than their older counter parts as well as younger and older filial caregivers who experienced less discrimination. Additionally, younger caregivers with greater discrimination exposure exhibited more number of chronic conditions as compared to other caregivers. The study results highlight the impact of the intersection between filial caregivers’ age and discrimination on physical health. Findings have the potential to inform programs that could promote the health of filial caregivers in the face of discrimination.


Author(s):  
A. Pinchuk ◽  
M. Garbuz ◽  
P. Zeleny ◽  
D. Harnets ◽  
D. Ivanov

Analysis of combat losses of aircraft in local armed conflicts in recent decades shows that most cases of aircraft hits are related to the impact of guided surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles equipped with homing warheads. The use of modern guided missiles equipped with homing warheads is one of the main threats to aircraft of various types. This is due to the fact that modern guided missiles are characterized by high speed, maneuverability, accuracy of aiming and difficulty of detection. Solving the problem of protecting aircraft from guided missiles consists of several stages: detection of missile launch; confirmation that the detected missile is heading directly toward the protected object; missile identification and decision-making on the most effective countermeasure system employment. At present, there are no missile launch detection systems that guarantee a 100% probability of threat detection, but an analysis of aviation combat losses in local armed conflicts in recent decades convincingly shows that the number of combat losses of aircraft equipped with such systems is much lower than those in which missile launch detection is carried out visually. For example, most of the Soviet Union's losses during the war in Afghanistan and the United States‟ losses during Operation “Desert Storm” in Iraq were related to the use of portable anti-aircraft missile systems, which missiles were equipped with infrared homing warheads. Realizing the scale of the threat posed by such missiles, most of the world's leading countries have significantly increased the expenses on development new or improvement existing countermeasures. As a result, the aggregate losses of coalition forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria since 2001 clearly suggest that these costs have paid off, with losses from the use of portable anti-aircraft missile systems significantly reduced, while the total number of combat sorties increased. Therefore, in the face of all the challenges and threats posed to Ukraine due to the aggressive actions of the Russian Federation, conducting research in the interests of aviation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to improve the effectiveness of missile detection systems for ensuring timely detection of threats, warning of aircraft crew and activation in the automatic mode the means of countermeasures is as relevant as ever.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 886-892
Author(s):  
Angela M. Haeny ◽  
Samantha C. Holmes ◽  
Monnica T. Williams

With the increased desire to engage in antiracist clinical research, there is a need for shared nomenclature on racism and related constructs to help move the science forward. This article breaks down the factors that contributed to the development and maintenance of racism (including racial microaggressions), provides examples of the many forms of racism, and describes the impact of racism for all. Specifically, in the United States, racism is based on race, a social construct that has been used to categorize people on the basis of shared physical and social features with the assumption of a racial hierarchy presumed to delineate inherent differences between groups. Racism is a system of beliefs, practices, and policies that operate to advantage those at the top of the racial hierarchy. Individual factors that contribute to racism include racial prejudices and racial discrimination. Racism can be manifested in multiple forms (e.g., cultural, scientific, social) and is both explicit and implicit. Because of the negative impact of racism on health, understanding racism informs effective approaches for eliminating racial health disparities, including a focus on the social determinants of health. Providing shared nomenclature on racism and related terminology will strengthen clinical research and practice and contribute to building a cumulative science.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Douglas A. Berman

The remarkable events of 2020 have disrupted and altered all sorts of plans, and this issue of FSR covers some of the many varied criminal justice and sentencing echoes of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and urgent new calls for racial justice. The intense and dynamic topics that have come to define 2020 in the United States necessarily impact, and may even consume our thinking, about modern criminal justice systems generally and federal sentencing realities in particular. Included in this FSR issue are reports and data and commentary that predate spring shutdowns and summer protests and related developments; but these materials now carry distinctive meaning and even a new urgency in light of 2020 challenges. It is impossible to fully assess in short order the impact of massive societal changes on the federal sentencing system, but we are hopeful this FSR issue can provided added perspective to a rapidly changing world that still often seems hard to fully grasp.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 506-515
Author(s):  
Katie L. Acosta

The impact of COVID–19 on racially minoritized communities in the United States has forced us all to look square in the face of the systemic racism that is embedded in every fabric of our society. As the number of infected people continues to rise, the racial disparities are glaringly obvious. Black and Latinx communities have been hit considerably harder by this pandemic. Both racial/ethnic groups have seen rates of infection well above their percentage in the general population and African Americans have seen rates of death from COVID–19 as high as twice their percentage in the general population. These numbers bear witness to the high cost of racism in the United States.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Chin ◽  
Dennis M. Feehan ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud

SARS-CoV-2 is spread primarily through person-to-person contacts. Quantifying population contact rates is important for understanding the impact of physical distancing policies and for modeling COVID-19, but contact patterns have changed substantially over time due to shifting policies and behaviors. There are surprisingly few empirical estimates of age-structured contact rates in the United States both before and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic that capture these changes. Here, we use data from six waves of the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Survey (BICS), which collected detailed contact data between March 22, 2020 and February 15, 2021 across six metropolitan designated market areas (DMA) in the United States. Contact rates were low across all six DMAs at the start of the pandemic. We find steady increases in the mean and median number of contacts across these localities over time, as well as a greater proportion of respondents reporting a high number of contacts. We also find that young adults between ages 18 and 34 reported more contacts on average compared to other age groups. The 65 and older age group consistently reported low levels of contact throughout the study period. To understand the impact of these changing contact patterns, we simulate COVID-19 dynamics in each DMA using an age-structured mechanistic model. We compare results from models that use BICS contact rate estimates versus commonly used alternative contact rate sources. We find that simulations parameterized with BICS estimates give insight into time-varying changes in relative incidence by age group that are not captured in the absence of these frequently updated estimates. We also find that simulation results based on BICS estimates closely match observed data on the age distribution of cases, and changes in these distributions over time. Together these findings highlight the role of different age groups in driving and sustaining SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the U.S. We also show the utility of repeated contact surveys in revealing heterogeneities in the epidemiology of COVID-19 across localities in the United States.


2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (48) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Bosetti ◽  
Bich-Tram Huynh ◽  
Armiya Youssouf Abdou ◽  
Marie Sanchez ◽  
Catherine Eisenhauer ◽  
...  

Background Many countries implemented national lockdowns to contain the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 and avoid overburdening healthcare capacity. Aim We aimed to quantify how the French lockdown impacted population mixing, contact patterns and behaviours. Methods We conducted an online survey using convenience sampling and collected information from participants aged 18 years and older between 10 April and 28 April 2020. Result Among the 42,036 survey participants, 72% normally worked outside their home, and of these, 68% changed to telework during lockdown and 17% reported being unemployed during lockdown. A decrease in public transport use was reported from 37% to 2%. Participants reported increased frequency of hand washing and changes in greeting behaviour. Wearing masks in public was generally limited. A total of 138,934 contacts were reported, with an average of 3.3 contacts per individual per day; 1.7 in the participants aged 65 years and older compared with 3.6 for younger age groups. This represented a 70% reduction compared with previous surveys, consistent with SARS-CoV2 transmission reduction measured during the lockdown. For those who maintained a professional activity outside home, the frequency of contacts at work dropped by 79%. Conclusion The lockdown affected the population's behaviour, work, risk perception and contact patterns. The frequency and heterogeneity of contacts, both of which are critical factors in determining how viruses spread, were affected. Such surveys are essential to evaluate the impact of lockdowns more accurately and anticipate epidemic dynamics in these conditions.


2006 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 239-251
Author(s):  
Frank Sewell ◽  

The poet Josef Brodski once wrote: ‘I’m talking to you but it isn’t my fault if you can’t hear me.’ However, Brodski and other Russian writers, thinkers and artists, continue to be heard across gulfs of language, space and time. Indeed, the above line from Brodski forms the epigraph of ‘Travel Poem’, originally written in Polish by Anna Czeckanowicz. And just as Czeckanowicz picks up on Brodski’s ‘high talk’ (as Yeats might call it), so too do Irish writers (past and present) listen in, and dialogue with, Russian counterparts and exemplars. Some Irish writers go further and actually claim to identify with Russian writers, and/or to identify conditions of life in Ireland with their perception of life in Russia. Paul Durcan, for example, entitled a whole collection of poems Going Home to Russia. Russia feels like ‘home’ to Durcan partly because he is one example of the many Irish writers who have listened in very closely to Russian writing, and who have identified with aspects of what they find in Russian culture. Another example is the poet Medbh McGuckian who has looked to earlier Russian literature for examples of women artists who ‘dedicated their lives to their craft’, who ‘never disgraced the art’, who created timeless works in the face of conflict and suffering: she refers particularly to Anna Akhmatova and, especially, Marina Tsvetaeva. Contemplating and dialoguing with her international sisters in art, McGuckian finds a means of communicating matters and feelings that are ‘closer to home’, culturally and politically (including the politics of gender). Ireland’s most famous poet Seamus Heaney has repeatedly engaged with Russian writings: especially those of Anton Chekhov and Osip Mandelstam. The former is recalled in the poem ‘Chekhov on Sakhalin’, a work taut with tension between an artist’s ‘right to the luxury of practising his art’, and the residual ‘guilt’ which an artist may feel and only possibly discharge by giving ‘witness’, at least, to the chains and flogging of the downtrodden. On the other hand, Mandelstam, for Heaney, is a model of artistic integrity, freedom and courage, a bearer of the sacred, singing word, compared by the Irish poet to an on-the-run priest in Penal days. In this conference paper, I will outline some of the impact and influence that Russian writers have had on Irish writers (who write either in English or in Irish). I will point to some of the lessons and tactics that Irish writers have learnt and adopted from their Russian counterparts: including Cathal Ó Searcaigh’s debt to Yevgenii Yevtushenko, Máirtín Ó Cadhain’s to Maxim Gorki, Máirtín Ó Direáin’s to Aleksandr Blok, and Padraic Ó Conaire’s to Lev Tolstoi, etc.


2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 765-788 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Johnson Osirim

Based on research conducted over the past two decades, this lecture examines how the feminist political economy perspective can aid us in understanding the experiences of two populations of African women: Zimbabwean women cross-border traders in South Africa and African immigrant women in the northeastern United States. Feminist political economy compels us to explore the impact of the current phase of globalization as well as the roles of intersectionality and agency in the lives of African women. This research stems from fieldwork conducted in Harare and Bulawayo, Zimbabwe and Johannesburg and Cape Town, South Africa, as well as in metropolitan Boston and Philadelphia. Despite the many challenges that African migrant women face in these different venues, they continue to demonstrate much creativity and resilience and, in the process, they contribute to community development.


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